Greg Walden

Brown to Face Buehler in November

State Rep. Knute Buehler overcame more conservative GOP candidates to win the right to challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown this fall in what could emerge as a marquee matchup this fall when a “Blue Wave” is anticipated nationally in the mid-term election after Donald Trump’s captured the White House in 2016.

State Rep. Knute Buehler overcame more conservative GOP candidates to win the right to challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown this fall in what could emerge as a marquee matchup this fall when a “Blue Wave” is anticipated nationally in the mid-term election after Donald Trump’s captured the White House in 2016.

Oregon’s primary election didn’t excite voters as reflected by historically low turnout, but it did set the stage for what could be engaging contests in November.

Knute Buehler overcame a handful of more conservative GOP candidates to grab the Republican gubernatorial nomination, giving him a chance to carry on his vigorous campaign to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown.

Both wasted little time launching their general election campaigns. Before the votes were tallied Tuesday, Brown called for three formal debates and urged as many joint appearances as possible hosted by media outlets. Buehler scheduled a press conference Wednesday morning at the headquarters of Portland Public Schools to lambast a teachers’ union for “protecting a predator” who allegedly abused children and was transferred from school to school.

JoAnn Hardesty and Loretta Smith face a runoff in the fall for a Portland City Commission position, ensuring the election of the first African-American woman on the council.

Metro Councilor Kathryn Harrington and Bob Terry will vie in November for the Washington County chair position. Terry is currently the Commission’s vice chair. Former lawmaker Ryan Deckert, whom some observers saw as the frontrunner, finished third in Tuesday’s voting.

All five Oregon congressional incumbents easily won their largely ceremonial primary contests. None seem in trouble in the general election, though Republican Congressman Greg Walden may face a spirited challenge from Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated six other Democratic candidates to win the chance to poke at Walden for his support of Trump administration policies. Oregon Democrats have set up a website called “Repeal Walden,” a gibe at his leading role in the failed congressional attempt to repeal Obamacare.

Some races were settled in Tuesday’s voting. Shemia Fagan unseated five-term Democratic Senator Rod Monroe in a race that centered on affordable housing policies. With no Republican on the ballot in the East Portland Senate district, Fagan is basically a shoo-in this fall and will help tilt the Senate Democratic Caucus more to the left.

Former Eugene lawmaker Val Hoyle defeated long-time Tualatin Mayor Lou Ogden to win the Oregon Labor Commissioner post, replacing Brad Avakian who didn’t seek re-election. Hoyle previously lost in her bid to become secretary of state, but now will become only the second woman to hold the Labor position in the 115-year history of the Bureau of Labor and Industries.

Lynn Peterson, a transportation planner and former chair of the Clackamas County Commission, cruised to an easy victory to become Metro president, replacing Tom Hughes who has served the maximum of two terms in the post. Nonprofit executive Juan Carlos Gonzalez received 55 percent of the vote to capture the Metro Council representing the western part of urbanized Washington County that Harrington has represented.

Kevin Barton handily defeated Max Wall for Washington County district attorney in what was one of the more visible local races. Barton, who is chief deputy district attorney, withstood a barrage of TV advertising from Wall, a former Polk County prosecutor and now a Beaverton criminal defense attorney. Election filings show the two candidates raised and spent around $900,000 in the campaign.

Pam Treece, executive director of the Westside Economic Alliance, defeated incumbent Washington County Commissioner Greg Malinowski. Former Hillsboro Mayor Jerry Willey won the Commission seat vacated by Terry.

Senate President Peter Courtney easily shrugged off a primary challenge, the first in a decade. Democrats hope to pick up a pivotal 18th Senate seat in Southern Oregon is a district where GOP Senator Alan DeBoer chose not to seek re-election. They also hope they can capture the Hood River House seat previously held by Rep. Mark Johnson who resigned to head the newly merged Oregon Business & Industry.

Oregon was one of four states holding a primary election Tuesday. Voting in Pennsylvania was marked by the primary victories of left-leaning candidates, including two members of the Democratic Socialists of America who won nominations in two Pittsburgh congressional districts. All of Pennsylvania’s 20 House seats are held by males, but that is expected to change with as many as four seats up for grabs for female candidates.

In Idaho, Democrat Paulette Jordan defeated an establishment candidate, running on a platform of protecting public lands, Medicaid expansion and relaxed marijuana laws. If Jordan prevails in November, she would be the state’s first Native American governor.

National Democrats are hailing Tuesday’s voting, noting larger turnouts and more voter enthusiasm for its candidates. The result of the voting, however, only produced one House Democratic gain in a special Pennsylvania congressional election.

A Look at the Relatively Quiet Oregon Gubernatorial Race

Oregon’s 2018 gubernatorial election has been relatively quiet so far, with Governor Kate Brown biding her time until the fall general election and front-running GOP challenger Knute Buehler trying to find a way to win the primary without getting beaten up on the campaign trail.

Oregon’s 2018 gubernatorial election has been relatively quiet so far, with Governor Kate Brown biding her time until the fall general election and front-running GOP challenger Knute Buehler trying to find a way to win the primary without getting beaten up on the campaign trail.

Oregon’s gubernatorial race continues to be a low-key affair with the election now just six weeks away and ballots due to arrive in mailboxes before then.

Democratic Governor Kate Brown doesn’t face any credible primary opposition and seems to be waiting to see who Oregon Republicans will choose to face her in the fall general election.

Rep. Knute Buehler from Bend has raised the most money among GOP candidates and struck a moderate political posture on abortion and guns, making him potentially a strong candidate to woo independent and alienated Democratic voters in November. However, Buehler, an orthopedic surgeon, has to win the May 15 primary against more right-leaning opponents, including former Blue Angels Commander Greg Wooldridge, who has been endorsed by Oregon Right to Life, and Bend businessman Sam Carpenter, who is an unapologetic supporter of President Trump.

The annual Republican Dorchester Conference straw ballot early in March favored Wooldridge over Buehler. Buehler downplayed the result, saying he had little time to mix and mingle with Dorchester conferees because he was in Salem for the short Oregon legislative session that adjourned just when the conference was beginning. Others viewed Buehler’s loss as his weakness with what have come to be called Trump voters.

Since then, Oregon Public Broadcasting reports Buehler has skipped several candidate forums attended by his GOP gubernatorial rivals, which has raised questions. “People are asking why. You know, it’s peculiar,” Baker County GOP Chairwoman Suzan Ellis Jones told OPB. Wooldridge’s campaign team has been blunter. “What is he hiding from. If he’s not willing to meet people face-to-face, I’m not sure he’s really ready to represent the people of Oregon,” said Russ Walker, a Woolridge campaign strategist.

There are 10 Republicans vying to take on Brown. Buehler has reported a campaign war chest of more than $3 million, while Wooldridge and Carpenter are the only other two hopefuls who have raised more than $100,000. Nobody’s campaign has taken to the airwaves so far.

Buehler is betting his experience serving two terms in the Oregon legislature, fundraising connections and moderate policy positions on reproductive rights and gun control will convince Republicans that he is the only GOP candidate with a chance to defeat Brown and become the first Republican since Vic Atiyeh to sit in the governor’s chair. Most of Buehler’s statements have come in the form of criticizing Brown.

Buehler reportedly bypassed challenging Brown in 2016, when she ran to fill the remaining two years of former Governor John Kitzhaber’s fourth term, because Democratic turnout was expected to be high in a presidential election year. However, 2018 may not be all that different as Democrats have energized their political base in response to actions by Trump, such as undermining Obamacare, challenging legalization of marijuana and dismantling environmental regulations. The Trump tax plan that will limit federal tax deductions for state and local taxes and Trump’s tariffs on trade with China have irritated upper-income Oregonians and alarmed farmers. Trump’s overall favorability rating in Oregon hovers below 40 percent.

Voters along the I-5 corridor from Eugene to Portland are reliably Democratic, but there will likely be more Democratic electoral efforts in rural Oregon aimed at Greg Walden, Oregon’s lone GOP congressman. The Republican gubernatorial nominee, whoever it is, may be forced to spend time and resources to defend the Red State part of Oregon.

In the general election, Brown will be attacked as a weak leader who has presided over state agency foul-ups and resulted in a fairly high turnover rate of agency leaders. Brown will cite her leadership in a major transportation funding measure, a hike in the state minimum wage and create of a state-sponsored retirement savings plan.

Buehler probably will need to dig into his campaign fund to raise his visibility before the primary, while Brown probably will hold off any major media outreach until the general election campaign is underway. She has the luxury of using the next few months to bolster her $3.2 million campaign bank account.

That means for now, Oregonians can enjoy the relative quietude of the gubernatorial race. It promises to get a lot noisier and nastier.

 

Few Seem Neutral on Polarized Net Neutrality Repeal

The nerdy issue of net neutrality has stirred up a national hornet’s nest as the Federal Communications Commission repeals an Obama-era rule that critics say guaranteed a free and open internet, but supporters claim would hold back internet innovation with government regulation. The issue has turned into yet another partisan fistfight.

The nerdy issue of net neutrality has stirred up a national hornet’s nest as the Federal Communications Commission repeals an Obama-era rule that critics say guaranteed a free and open internet, but supporters claim would hold back internet innovation with government regulation. The issue has turned into yet another partisan fistfight.

Mere minutes after the Federal Communications Commission on a split 3-2 vote ended net neutrality last week, Washington state’s attorney general filed suit to neutralize the FCC’s action on procedural grounds. Washington Governor Jay Inslee has an even more ambitious plan.

Inslee has come up with five options to force internet service providers in Washington to live up to net neutrality standards. Perhaps the most aggressive option is to empower Washington public utility districts to offer internet service and compete with big-league telecommunications companies.

Washington lawmakers – from both political parties – aren’t far behind. Bills have been introduced for the 2018 session that would forbid internet providers from throttling speeds or charging to prioritize traffic – two of the main concerns expressed by net neutrality supporters.

The FCC anticipated state-level resistance and added a preemption clause. That will be challenged, too. The main legal challenge will center on the FCC’s process, which included a public record featuring as many as 2 million bot-driven comments.

David Olson , who until 2012 oversaw cable and broadband development in Portland, played a notable role in what emerged as the concept of net neutrality.

David Olson, who until 2012 oversaw cable and broadband development in Portland, played a notable role in what emerged as the concept of net neutrality.

Oregon has joined with a number of other states in the legal challenge to FCC’s action and, given the state’s history on internet openness, may look at legislative options in 2018, too.

A sign of our digital times, the FCC’s repeal of net neutrality has stirred up greater national angst than the GOP-backed $1.5 trillion tax legislation or the investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. However, net neutrality is no less politically polarizing. The FCC hearing room was cleared before the vote because of unruly protests.

Democratic opponents say repeal of net neutrality will signal the “end of the internet as we know it.” Republican supporters say the internet grew without a net neutrality rule, which was only adopted in 2015, and will continue to flourish after the rule is overturned. FCC Chairman Ajit Pat issued a video where he appears to mock critics. Comcast, one of the expected beneficiaries of net neutrality repeal, went to Twitter to say it wouldn’t violate net neutrality principles.

One of the leading defenders of net neutrality is Oregon Democratic Senator Ron Wyden. One of the best expositors of net neutrality repeal is Oregon GOP Congressman Greg Walden. Wyden says repeal is the equivalent of “trickle-down telecommunications.” Walden predicts innovation will continue to propel the internet and ensure competition.

Critics predict repeal of net neutrality will lead to paid prioritization of the internet and the resulting creation of a slow lane for those unwilling or unable to pay the freight for the fast lane. One critic has offered suggestions for how to measure potential speed throttling and access restrictions –  https://imgur.com/gallery/zfxwB

Critics predict repeal of net neutrality will lead to paid prioritization of the internet and the resulting creation of a slow lane for those unwilling or unable to pay the freight for the fast lane. One critic has offered suggestions for how to measure potential speed throttling and access restrictions – https://imgur.com/gallery/zfxwB

Democrats warn small businesses, educators, telemedicine and rural communities may find themselves on internet “slow lanes.” FCC Commissioner Mike O’Reilly, a Republican, says fears expressed by critics are “guilt by imagination.” 

All this for a nerdy issue that a few years ago nobody ever had heard about, but which underscores how important the internet has become to virtually every aspect of business, education, medicine, research, communications and social interaction.

We certainly haven’t heard the last of net neutrality. Court challenges, a push to reverse the policy in Congress, state legislative action and debate on the political trail in the 2018 elections all loom.

 

What if Oregon Voted First

The 2016 presidential sweepstakes may have a very different complexion – and different winners – if voting started in Oregon rather than Iowa.

The 2016 presidential sweepstakes may have a very different complexion – and different winners – if voting started in Oregon rather than Iowa.

Oregonian columnist David Sarasohn wondered aloud over the weekend how the presidential sweepstakes would differ if the first voter test was in Oregon instead of Iowa. It is a fascinating question. And it is not ridiculous to believe Oregon should have the honor of voting first since the state invented the idea of presidential preference voting in 1910. 

If the first test of presidential timber was in Oregon, chances are good early momentum in the race would go to candidates known for being more practical and less ideological, even if the ultimate party nominee would be unchanged.

For example, in the contested 1964 GOP primary, New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller captured Oregon, defeating eventual nominee Barry Goldwater. In 1968, Robert Kennedy picked up momentum in Oregon, even though he lost to Eugene McCarthy, that vaulted him to victory in the California primary. Kennedy may have gone on to win the Democratic nomination, and perhaps defeated Richard Nixon, if not for his election-night assassination in Los Angeles.

In the past three Iowa caucuses, Hawkeye state Republicans have given the edge to Mike Huckabee (2008), Rick Santorum (2012) and Ted Cruz (2016). All three were the favorite of Christian evangelicals. In a relative unchurched state such as Oregon, Sarasohn speculates none of the three might have gained as much political traction as they did in Iowa. Neither Huckabee nor Santorum rode their Iowa caucus victories to much further electoral success and Cruz is already facing strong headwinds in New Hampshire, where Republicans view themselves more as a constituency than a congregation.

The Republican tradition in Oregon has centered on conservative pragmatism. Vic Atiyeh, the last GOP governor in Oregon, tried to make state government more efficient, not make it smaller. Republican lawmakers in Oregon today battle against many tax increases and additional regulations, but they generally avoid fighting culture wars over contentious social issues. They fiercely defend gun rights but rarely talk about their personal religious views.

Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are perhaps the best matches in the 2016 GOP presidential field for Oregon’s Republican constituency. Kasich was an also-ran in Iowa, but appears to be gaining some momentum in New Hampshire, which like Oregon puts some value on experience and pragmatism. Bush, who has conducted a clumsy campaign, is lagging in the polls, but you could imagine he might have gotten off to a stronger start if the first vote occurred in Oregon rather than Iowa.

Cruz, the Iowa winner, had trouble with ethanol subsidies, a big deal for corn farmers. You can imagine the difficulty he would have had in Oregon coming to terms with voter-approved recreational marijuana and a burgeoning business sector to supply it.

Republican candidates also would have been tested this year by the occupation of the Malheur Federal Wildlife Refuge. They would have been unable to dodge questions about the illegal confiscation of federal property and simmering grazing rights issues.

In recent times, both the Republican and Democratic nominees have been coronated by the time the Oregon primary arrives in May. That may not be the case this year. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton is facing an unexpectedly vigorous challenge from Bernie Sanders that could go all the way until this summer’s Democratic convention. If Oregon had voted first, Sanders may have carried away the victory, giving his looming landslide in New Hampshire tomorrow even greater weight.

As Oregon has become a more reliably blue state in presidential and statewide electoral voting, Oregon also has become more liberal on issues such as physician-assisted suicide, an issue that just popped up in New Hampshire. With virtually no military presence in Oregon and relatively few defense contractors, voting against going to war is a bipartisan pattern, from Senators Wayne Morse and Mark Hatfield to Oregon’s current Democratic congressional delegation. Rand Paul – who was the most dovish GOP presidential candidate until he ended his campaign over the weekend – might have found a more welcoming audience for his foreign policy views.

Oregon is one of the most trade-dependent states in the union and almost all of its congressional delegation supports free-trade agreements, which could have made it awkward for Clinton and Sanders to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement negotiated by the Obama administration, at least without some stiff questioning.

Oregon Democrats and Republicans have a record of nominating and electing women to high office, which Iowa only recently embraced with the election of Joni Ernst to the U.S. Senate. Clinton might have found an edge in soliciting the active support of Governor Kate Brown, Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, former House Majority Leader Val Hoyle and candidate for secretary of state and current House Speaker Tina Kotek, all of whom will be in the 2016 ballot, too.

The Republican candidate who earned the endorsement of Congressman Greg Walden, who represents Oregon east of the Cascade Range – and who contracted for the best helicopter service – may have had the clear advantage. Walden was a close ally of former Speaker John Boehner who was forced out by conservative Tea Party House members.

Caucus winners in Iowa generally are the candidates with the best ground game and who press the flesh. Cruz appeared in every Iowa county. So did Barack Obama in his startling political arrival in 2008. Oregon is bigger and its rural, red-leaning voters are harder to canvass. However, Democratic candidates can campaign pretty much along I-5 from Portland to Eugene, giving them a logistical edge, but not anything requiring the same kind of retail politics that Iowans demand.

Iowa Democrats are found largely in cities with universities and industry with organized labor. Iowans may not be as hip as Portlanders view themselves, but they aren't mugwumps, either. They produced a virtual dead-heat between Clinton and Sanders.

It does make you wonder what the outcome would have been if Hillary and Bernie had to impress Oregon Democrats first. It does make you wonder whether Republicans Lindsey Graham or Rand Paul would have dropped out before or after the Oregon primary.

What if…

Gary Conkling is president and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. But most importantly, he’s a die-hard Ducks fan. You can reach Gary at  garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on Twitter at@GaryConkling.