Bud Pierce

Oregonians May Get Another Turn at Term Limits

Oregon experimented with legislative term limits more than two decades ago and the outcomes weren’t what was promised. Once lawmakers were elected, they immediately started angling for their next job, often overlooking serious policy choices staring them in the face.

Oregon experimented with legislative term limits more than two decades ago and the outcomes weren’t what was promised. Once lawmakers were elected, they immediately started angling for their next job, often overlooking serious policy choices staring them in the face.

Oregonians may get another chance to vote for legislative term limits. It would be a good opportunity to buy the idea once and for all.

Unsuccessful GOP gubernatorial candidate Bud Pierce is sponsoring an initiative to re-impose legislative term limits and apply them retroactively to sitting lawmakers. His measure, if it makes it to the 2018 general election ballot and is approved by voters, would disqualify Senate President Peter Courtney and House Speaker Tina Kotek, even though both will be running for re-election on the same ballot.

Term limits are not theoretical in Oregon. Voters approved them overwhelmingly for state and federal lawmakers in 1992. Ballot Measure 3 was partially voided in 1995 by the Oregon Supreme Court to exclude congressional representatives. The entire measure was tossed out in 2002, but not before the fruits of term limits could be assessed. To say the least, the fruit was over-ripe.

Instead of the intended new blood in the legislature, several former lawmakers decided to return to office. That was the good news compared to what happened to the newcomers. They hadn’t settled into their Capitol offices before beginning to plot their next electoral opportunity.

With just three terms in the Oregon House, lawmakers had to make their mark quickly and aim at their next political dart board. A body once distinguished by bipartisan collaboration switched almost overnight to caucus politics by both parties and a political merry-go-round by individual lawmakers of office-shopping.

Perhaps ironically, caucus leaders assumed greater power and imposed stricter party fealty. The concept of new blood morphed into political bloodletting, political opportunism and kicking the can down the road. Why make tough decisions when you would be gone in three or fewer sessions?

Oregon survived the experiment with term limits, but arguably didn’t benefit from it. Now it may have a chance to restore the concept.

For the moment, Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum must rewrite the measure’s ballot title – the most-read part of any ballot measure – to refer to its retroactive provisions. Then Pierce and his allies must collect 88,184 valid Oregon voter signatures by next July to place the measure on the November 2018 general election ballot. Because the idea of “throw out everybody” has a certain visceral appeal, chances are good the measure will make it to the ballot.

Previous Oregon term limits were voided largely on procedural grounds. It is still an open question whether term limits are constitutionally valid. Oregonians – and Americans – have accepted the two-term limit for governors and presidents.

Whether constitutional or not, the question Oregon voters should ask is whether term limits actually do what they promise to do. Empirical evidence in Oregon suggests they didn’t. They had the inimical impact of creating a shifting cast of political characters who began running for a new office moments after being elected to a legislative seat.

The concept of new blood ignores the demonstrable benefits of legislative continuity, not to mention legislative experience. It would be hard for anyone but cynics to deny the enduring contributions of long-serving lawmakers such as Senator Peter Courtney, a Democrat, and Rep. Eldon Johnson, a Republican, to mention only a few. Senate GOP Leader Ted Ferrioli has served for five terms and newly elected Senate GOP leader Jackie Winters has served in the Oregon legislature since 1998. 

Ironically, most lawmakers serve for less than 10 years and move on with their lives. Insiders know it takes at least two to three terms in the legislature to learn the ropes, let alone influence policy.

Hailing term limits is a lot like shopping for a brain surgeon who just graduated from med school. They may be cheaper and less experienced, but they aren’t who you want cutting into your skull to dig out brain tumors.

There will be a lot of heavy breathing if the term limit measure reaches the ballot. Voters would be well advised to seek out the voices of people who lived daily with term limits and can tell you how they worked out in real life.

 

 

New Workplace Battlefront Opens on Flexible Scheduling

The next workplace battlefield is emerging over flexible scheduling of workers in sectors such as fast food restaurants. The situation further rankles Oregon business leaders who are still upset over paid sick leave, a higher minimum wage and Measure 97.

The next workplace battlefield is emerging over flexible scheduling of workers in sectors such as fast food restaurants. The situation further rankles Oregon business leaders who are still upset over paid sick leave, a higher minimum wage and Measure 97.

Democratic lawmakers are teeing up legislation for the 2017 session to mandate scheduling rules for some workers, which could make testy relations with Oregon’s business community even testier.

Senator Michael Dembrow, a Portland Democrat, says it’s timely to tackle the legislation next session. He noted the 2015 Oregon legislature imposed a moratorium on municipalities passing “flexible schedule” ordinances. That moratorium expires next year.

Dembrow’s legislation probably would mirror ordinances adopted in Seattle and San Francisco that require employers with large numbers of part-time workers to provide advance schedules or pay extra compensation.

Supporters say sudden work schedule changes make it hard and costly for low-wage workers to arrange for child care or balance work for second and third jobs. Business advocates say employers need the ability to adjust worker schedules to deal with emergencies and when employees call in sick.

Business groups are already rankled about workplace legislation following the 2015 session when Democrats pushed through bills to mandate paid sick leave and raise the state’s minimum wage.

They haven’t cooled down as business representatives walked away after Dembrow's first interim work group meeting on the flexible scheduling bill.

There is broad business opposition to Measure 97, the initiative appearing on the November 8 general election ballot that would impose a gross receipts tax on corporations with more than $25 million in annual sales in Oregon. Business leaders predict business closures or departures if the measure passes and warn they will be reluctant participants in any negotiations on an alternative if it fails. That wariness could extend to other issues, including the flexible scheduling bill.

After demurring, Governor Kate Brown endorsed Measure 97, even though she says she hates it. Brown based her support on the need for substantial additional revenue to plug a $1.25 billion or larger projected budget hole in the 2017-2019 biennium. Brown and her GOP challenger Bud Pierce will hold their first gubernatorial debate Saturday in Bend and can expect to be asked about the flexible scheduling bill.

When push comes to shove, some business leaders may prefer statewide flexible scheduling legislation as opposed to the specter of cities such as Portland and Eugene adopting their own local ordinances. But bruised political feelings among business leaders also could diminish or even extinguish their willingness to compromise.

Pierce Dumps Trump as Gubernatorial Debates Loom

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bud Pierce jettisoned his endorsement of Donald Trump on the run-up to this Saturday’s first debate with Governor Kate Brown in Bend. Four more debates will follow into mid-October.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bud Pierce jettisoned his endorsement of Donald Trump on the run-up to this Saturday’s first debate with Governor Kate Brown in Bend. Four more debates will follow into mid-October.

Few people aside from Donald Trump believe the unconventional GOP presidential candidate can capture Oregon in the November 8 general election. Now Oregon’s GOP gubernatorial candidate Bud Pierce has joined the chorus.

Pierce withdrew his endorsement of Trump this week, claiming the New York real estate magnate isn’t unifying the Republican party and is driving away Hispanic voters. Pierce says Hispanic voters have a natural attraction to political conservatives and he is actively seeking their support to upset Governor Kate Brown.

In an interview last month, Brown urged Pierce to disavow Trump and “do the right thing.” Whatever the right thing might be, Pierce stopped short of pledging to vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton. He said he won't cast a ballot for anyone in the presidential race this year.

Jacob Daniels, Trump’s Oregon campaign chairman and perhaps the only person in the state who thinks his man will win here, dismissed Pierce’s dropped endorsement as insignificant.

The most recent public polling shows Brown with a comfortable double-digit lead over Pierce, but some Oregon Democrats have been uneasy over her largely invisible campaign while she hit the campaign fundraising trail. Pierce hit the airwaves with hard-hitting TV ads last month. Brown went up in the last few days with a softer ad that describes her political start as a children’s advocate and her achievement s governor boosting state K-12 school funding.

Brown and Pierce are scheduled to square off in their first face-to-face debate on Saturday in Bend, which may only rate second billing to home football games in Eugene and Corvallis. The gubernatorial candidates debate again September 30 in front of the Portland City Club, October 6 in Eugene, October 13 in Medford and October 20 in Portland.

Pierce has called for fresh thinking in Salem while Brown has touted her leadership as the successor to John Kitzhaber, who resigned at the beginning of his unprecedented fourth term. No seminal issues have created a sharp division in the race, though the Oregon-Oracle $100 million settlement of the Cover Oregon fiasco may have averted a flash point in the race. The settlement that involved six separate legal actions came just before Brown was scheduled to be deposed.

The debates are likely to underscore Pierce’s opposition to and Brown’s endorsement of Measure 97, the initiative that would impose a gross receipts tax on corporations with more than $25 million in annual sales in Oregon. Proponents and opponents of the tax measure are waging a vigorous campaign that pivots on how much of the tax will filter down to small businesses and ultimately Oregon consumers. Early polling indicates the measure has strong support.

The gubernatorial candidates should be pressed on how they would respond if the tax measure passes or fails. Measure 97 is projected to generate $3 billion in new state tax revenue annually, which would more than plug the state’s anticipated $1.5 billion biennial budget hole. However, the state will face severe spending challenges on education and health care spending if the measure fails.

As the debates unfold, a key target for each candidate will be attracting non-affiliated voters. Brown can generally count on the Democratic majority in urban areas from Portland to Eugene. To win, Pierce may need to catch some of the same populist wind that propelled voters in Oregon to support Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Oregon's Mailed In Gubernatorial Race

Oregon pioneered mail-in balloting and now may be spearheading a new innovation – the mailed in gubernatorial campaign.

Oregon pioneered mail-in balloting and now may be spearheading a new innovation – the mailed in gubernatorial campaign.

The 2016 presidential race is a tornado of tweets, debates and name-calling. Meanwhile, the 2016 Oregon gubernatorial race is more like a still wind with few Facebook posts and a couple of press releases. Oregon has led the nation in mail-in voting. Now we may be leading it with mailed in campaigning.

Democratic Governor Kate Brown seems to have her foot on the pause button. Republican challenger Bud Pierce is running a campaign that resembles an earnest, sleepy Sunday morning political talk show. Allen Alley, who has run for governor before and entered the race late this go-round, appears to be resting on his name familiarity and party ties to win the GOP nomination.

For Oregon voters looking for a roll-up-your-sleeves discussion of policy, there is mostly silence. For voters rooting for a raucous, bare-knuckles campaign, there is just an empty prize-fighting ring. The political combatants are evidently occupied elsewhere.

Chances are the fireworks will come. There is partisan animosity about a Democratically-backed minimum wage boost, a requirement for paid sick leave and a utility-negotiated deal to end coal power in Oregon. Partisans on both sides of the political aisle may be annoyed by the lack of a vigorous exchange on policy or politics by the candidates.

It’s almost as if Oregon politicians are withdrawing in the face of a tumultuous and coarse political primary battle, as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz wage war in the gutter, and while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders spar over her Wall Street speeches and the realism of his policy proposals.

This year shaped up as a show-stopper election in Oregon with just about everyone except Senator Jeff Merkley appearing on the ballot. But the promise of a blockbuster ballot has shriveled into a deflated balloon as serious races failed to materialize and the races that exist have resembled junior high school dances with the girls hugging one wall and the boys the other. 

The gubernatorial race so far has been a non-starter. Brown, who took over for Governor John Kitzhaber amid an influence-peddling scandal, got high marks for a strong start. She demonstrated leadership and wielded her friendly personality to good stead. But since then, Brown has grown more cautious, even as the Democratic-led legislature punched through liberal legislative measures in the short 2016 session.

While Brown’s reticence could be explained as politically expedient, it is harder to understand the political logic of Pierce and Alley. Challengers have to lay siege to an incumbent, creating voter willingness to consider an alternative. The best blow Pierce has landed is that things aren’t quite up to snuff in Salem. Alley has basically said we can do better than what we’ve got. It usually takes more than that to unseat an incumbent, even one running for the job for the first time.

Oregon has become a reliable blue state, making a statewide election victory for a Republican a dubious prospect any time. Prospects in 2016 could be even dimmer if Donald Trump is the party’s national standard-bearer, forcing down ballot candidates to spend time disavowing his statements and stands. Neither Pierce nor Alley seem on the same wave length as Trump or his closest rival, Ted Cruz. Maybe they figure the less said, the better.

The closest to political excitement so far in Oregon was a Bernie Sanders rally last week, which was timed to boost his support in the Washington state Democratic presidential caucus. Sanders also filled the Portland TV airwaves with his commercials.

The Oregon primary is now only a few weeks away, so you expect the political pace here to pick up with a gubernatorial debate or a major policy speech or something. Maybe the candidates were waiting for spring break to end to launch their real campaigns. Or maybe they are on an extended spring beak themselves.

Portlanders have seen a respectful contest to replace Charlie Hales as mayor. The candidates have talked about policy differences, which are tiny, and the two frontrunners insisted that other candidates be included in mayoral forums. All very polite, very Portland, very much material for the next season of Portlandia. 

Gary Conkling is president and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. But most importantly, he’s a die-hard Ducks fan. You can reach Gary at  garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on Twitter at@GaryConkling.