Election season means leaves change color and political polls fall like rain. Keeping track of all the polls and making sense out of them is beyond the capability of most of us. Thank goodness for FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight, named after the number of electors in the US Electoral College, launched in 2008 as a polling aggregation site. The idea was and remains that looking collectively at polls is more useful than focusing on a single poll, which can be influenced by the skill and methodology of an individual pollster. The fivethirtyeight.com website was acquired last April by ABC News.
In a weekly roundup of polling, called Pollapalooza, the site reports on the “Poll of the Week” and provides a quick reference and links to a wide range of political polls. This week’s Pollapalozza blog centers on polling that FiveThirtyEight shows support for President Trump flagging while support for Robert Mueller’s Russian interference investigation rising.
The blog started with findings from a CNN poll that shows 61 percent of respondents believe the Mueller investigation is serious and should continue, up 6 points from a month ago. Poll findings indicate 72 percent of respondents believe Trump should testify under oath (+4 points since June) and 47 percent think Trump should be impeached (+5 points since June).
The latest poll by Quinnipiac, which has a slight tilt toward the right, produced complementary results. Respondents by a 55-32 margin said the Mueller investigation is fair, up 4 points from a Quinnipiac poll conducted a month ago.
Numbers were different, but the margins were similar in a YouGov poll, which indicated respondents approved of the Mueller investigation by a 49 percent to 30 percent margin.
If you tire of reading about the Russian investigation, Pollapalozza offers a guide to other recent research. For example:
58 percent of Americans want the senior Trump official who wrote an anonymous op-ed published by the New York Times to identify himself or herself. (CNN poll)
A plurality of respondents say it’s “not very important” or “not important at all” for a political candidate to have strong religious beliefs. (Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research)
“Two-thirds of Americans rely on social media to get at least some of their news, but more than half of those people expect the news on social medial to be largely inaccurate.” (Pew Research Center)
“Among Americans who lost trust in media, 7 in 10 say that trust can be restored.” (Gallup and Knight Foundation)
If politics isn’t your thing, the FiveThirtyEight website serves up the latest news in sports, science & health, economics and culture.
In the culture category, the site’s blog, called Significant Digits, reported the results from a Washington Post survey of 50 cities that found police departments with lower caseloads of homicides have higher arrest rates while the opposite is true for cities with higher caseloads. “Major police departments that are successful at making arrests in homicides generally assign detectives fewer than five cases annually,” according to survey findings as reported in the newspaper under the headline, “Buried under bodies.”
The sports section is peppered with stories such as why the NFL, reputedly a passing league, doesn’t throw enough passes or a piece pitting “old-school stats” versus “fancy-pants analytics” in Major League Baseball.
FiveThirtyEight is pretty much like having your cake and political polling, too. It is worth some clicks.