Millennials

Seismic Demographic Shifts Contribute to Rising Racial Animus

Pew Research has updated its demographic report that shows racial and ethnic minorities are continuing to grow and there are now around 300 nonwhite-majority counties in America, most of which are located in the Southwest from Texas to California. Virtually none are in the stretch of America from the Ohio Valley to the Pacific Northwest.

Pew Research has updated its demographic report that shows racial and ethnic minorities are continuing to grow and there are now around 300 nonwhite-majority counties in America, most of which are located in the Southwest from Texas to California. Virtually none are in the stretch of America from the Ohio Valley to the Pacific Northwest.

Intensifying racial and ethnic animus in America can be traced in part to changing demographics as Hispanic, Asian and African-American populations continue to grow, while white populations remain relatively stable.

According to an updated Pew Research Center study released last week, racial diversification is occurring unevenly around the nation, which may explain differing attitudes toward demographic shifts.

Pew Research says 109 counties went from majority white to majority nonwhite between 2000 and 2018, based on US Census information. There are now almost 300 counties in the country with nonwhite majorities.

The largest number of nonwhite-majority counties are in the Southwest from Texas to Southern California. There are concentrations of nonwhite-majority counties in the South and along the Eastern seaboard. There are virtually none from the Ohio River Valley through the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest. There are two nonwhite-majority counties – Yakima and Adams – in Washington and none in Oregon. 

Nonwhite majorities exist in 21 of the 25 US counties with the largest populations. Eight of those 21 had white majorities as recently as 2000. They include San Diego, Orange, Riverside and Sacramento counties in California, Clark County in Nevada, Broward County in Florida, Tarrant County in Texas and Wayne County in Michigan. Hispanics represented the largest nonwhite population in seven of those eight counties. African-Americans were the largest nonwhite population in Wayne County, which includes Detroit.

Pew notes two counties, both with small populations, shifted from nonwhite majorities to white majorities in the same time period – Calhoun County in South Carolina and West Feliciana Parish in Louisiana.

Even as racial and ethnic diversity increases, whites remain the single largest bloc, Pew says, accounting for 60 percent of the nation’s populations. The largest US counties with white majorities include King County in Washington.

The Pew demographic study also noted reverse migration patterns, such as African-Americans leaving northern states to move to Atlanta and an increase in multiracial Americans.

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 An earlier PEW Research commentary noted six significant demographic trends:

  1. Millennials between the ages of 23 and 38 are the largest adult cohort in America and tend to be more educated, more racially and ethnically diverse and slower to marry than previous generations.

  2. Hispanics are projected to be the largest racial and ethnic group that will cast votes in the 2020 election.

  3. The American family continues to change. Now one in four US parents is unmarried.

  4. The 13.6 percent immigrant share of the US population is approaching a record high dating back to 1910 when immigrants accounted for 14.7 percent of the US population. The percentage was slightly higher in 1890. According to United Nations data, 25 nations and territories have a larger percentage of immigrant population than the United States.

  5. The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States is at its lowest level in more than a decade.

  6. Incomes are rising, but the increase is not spread equally. US household income is at or near its highest level in the last 50 years, while income inequality has grown, especially among racial and ethnic groups. For example, between 1970 and 2016, Asian-Americans went from a group with the lowest income inequality to the highest.

And, here are some bonus demographic data points related to older adults:

  • Around 90 percent of the increase in US employment since 1998 has come from higher employment of workers 55 and older.

  • The labor force participation rate for people age 65 to 69 has risen from roughly 28 percent in 1998 to 38 percent in 2019 for men and from 18 percent to about 30 percent for women.

  • Adults between ages 55 and 64 made up 26 percent of new entrepreneurs in 2017, an increase over the 19 percent figure in 2007.

Poll: Americans Open to Medicare Choice, Not Medicare-for-All

Fresh poll results indicate a majority of Americans think a choice between private health insurance and Medicare is a good idea, but a Medicare-for-All plan is a bad idea.

Fresh poll results indicate a majority of Americans think a choice between private health insurance and Medicare is a good idea, but a Medicare-for-All plan is a bad idea.

A majority of Americans like the idea of choosing between private health insurance or Medicare, but disfavor eliminating private health insurance under a Medicare-for-All plan, according to a new NPR/Marist Poll.

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Seventy percent of poll respondents said a choice between coverage under private health insurance or Medicare is a “good idea.” Only 25 percent view that choice as a “bad idea.” Democrats are the most supportive at 90 percent, with 70 percent of independents in agreement. Republicans are split with 46 percent liking the idea and 48 percent viewing it is a bad idea.

There was little difference in viewpoints between men and women, between respondents from different regions in the country or between big city and small city dwellers.

There were slight differences based on education and age. Millennials (79%) were the most favorable toward the idea and older Americans (64%) were the least favorable.

Fifty-four percent of poll respondents consider Medicare-for-All a “bad idea,” while only 41 percent view it as a “good idea.” As you would expect, people identifying themselves as “progressive” (68%) were the most supportive and Republicans (14%) and Trump supporters (15%) were the least enamored.

For 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, a troubling finding was that only 40 percent of self-described moderates and 39 percent of independents regard Medicare-for-All as a good idea. It is unpopular in all regions of the country and in big cities, suburban areas and rural areas.

Millennials (53%) and people with household incomes below $50,000 (49%) are the most supportive respondents for Medicare-for-All. 

The poll touched on a number of other issues. Here is a quick summary:

  • 89% of respondents regard background checks for gun purchases at gun shows is a good idea.

  • 67% favor government regulation of prescription drug prices.

  • 64% favor a pathway of citizenship for immigrants in the United States illegally.

  • 63% favor legalizing marijuana nationally.

  • 63% favor a Green New Deal to address climate change.

  • 62% favor a so-called wealth tax on higher-income individuals.

  • 57% favor a ban on the sale of semi-automatic assault guns.

  • 56% favor a $15 per hour minimum wage.

  • 53% favor the United States rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement.

  • 53% favor free tuition at colleges and universities.

  • 50% favor a carbon tax on coal, oil and natural gas.

  • 51% oppose repeal of Obamacare.

  • 50% oppose eliminating the electoral college.

  • 58% oppose abolishing the death penalty.

  • 62% oppose a national health insurance program for illegal immigrants.

  • 66% oppose decriminalizing illegal border crossings.

  • 62% oppose reparations for slavery.

  • 66% oppose a universal basic income of $1,000 per month for all US adults.

The Marist Poll was conducted from July 15-17 with 1,346 adults using a random sample of landline and mobile phone users. Of the adult respondents, 1,175 said they were registered voters. Thirty-eight percent of the registered voters were independents, 33 percent were Democrats and 27 percent Republicans. Fifty-two percent were women and 48 percent men. Minority participation was consistent with US population demographics.

 

Millennials Pose Unique Marketing Challenges – And Familiar Ones

Millennials, as children of the digital era, pose unique marketing challenges. However, you are more likely to engage them with online video ads and social media with videos. That said, it never hurts to know you target audience and recognize they are a moving target.

Millennials, as children of the digital era, pose unique marketing challenges. However, you are more likely to engage them with online video ads and social media with videos. That said, it never hurts to know you target audience and recognize they are a moving target.

Millennials are a moving target, so it helps to understand as much as you can about their demographics. Salesforce did the homework for you.  https://www.salesforce.com/products/marketing-cloud/best-practices/millenial-marketing-strategy/#

Millennials are a moving target, so it helps to understand as much as you can about their demographics. Salesforce did the homework for you. https://www.salesforce.com/products/marketing-cloud/best-practices/millenial-marketing-strategy/#

Marketing to Millennials is admittedly a challenge. They are as interested in car-sharing as car-buying. Owning a home is less important than being close to the action. They don’t read newspapers or watch commercial television. Their choice of channels seems to change regularly.

To get a better handle on Millennials, a real estate company commissioned a survey and discovered online video advertising is the best vehicle to engage this target audience. Not exactly a eureka moment, but it does confirm – at least for now – that online video still holds appeal.

Online video ads are not a silver bullet. According to the survey, 21 percent of the 1,100 Millennials interviewed said they engage with online video ads, contrasted to only 11 percent of people 39 years or older. Fourteen percent of Millennial respondents said they engage with social media ads with videos.

It’s worth noting, the survey indicated 31 percent of Millennial respondents say they don’t engage with online ads. More than four in 10 older adults say the same thing. That suggests Millennials are simply hard to engage with ads anywhere online.

What the survey underscores is the value of visual content. The second highest source of online engagement (17%) is social media ads with pictures. They attract the highest percentage (14%) of older adults, too.

Search engine ads work better to engage older adults (12%) than Millennials (9%). Display ads on websites and native ads don’t work that well with younger or older adults, based on survey results.

Tommy O’Shaughnessy of Clever Real Estate, which commissioned the survey, says, “In many ways, YouTube has assumed the functional role of television for Millennials. According to an eMarketer study, Millennials watch more digital video than traditional video content, making YouTube an incredibly important tool for marketers.”

He adds, “While Facebook is still the dominant social media platform and reaches the widest audience, the preferences of younger Millennials have begun shifting toward YouTube and Instagram, where video content is more readily available and more fundamental to the experience. However, despite the recent Millennial migration away from Facebook, ads run on the social networking megalith are still more likely to lead to a purchase than ads run on any other platform.” The migration of Millennials from Facebook appears to be tied to growing concerns about its privacy policies.

One nugget buried in the survey is that Millennials are 54 percent more likely than older adults to buy a product suggested by a social media celebrity. That may be the byproduct of older adult unfamiliarity with most social media celebrities.

It may not set apart Millennials from other adults, but the survey underscores they like to laugh and learn at the same time. “Marketing campaigns that provide value to their audience through funny and informative video content stand the best chance of engaging their viewers,” O’Shaughnessy says. “Humorous content is the most likely to strike a chord with millennials (44%), while informative content comes in second (30%).”

“Amusing and informative advertisements elicit good responses from Millennials and Baby Boomers, with the latter demonstrating a slight preference for informative ads,” he explains. “However, marketers need to exercise caution when trying to grab their audience’s attention with a shocking ad, as these performed abysmally across both generations – only 4% of Millennials and 3% of Baby Boomers stated that unsettling ads resonate with them.”

While Millennials, children of the digital age, pose unique marketing challenges, they are still part of the human race. “Although this generation has its idiosyncrasies, Millennial marketing is not such a hard nut to crack,” O’Shaughnessy argues. “Millennials crave content that feels valuable, honest, personal and sticks out from the rest of their feeds. The best way to accomplish this is to create video marketing campaigns that utilize influencers and provide funny, informative content to a brand’s audience.”

 

Older Voters to Continue to Set US Political Agenda

Longer lifespans have many ramifications for housing, health care and mobility. They also have ramifications on US elections as the number of older adults continues to grow, packing even more clout on influencing political agendas by both Republicans and Democrats and perhaps deciding who will face off in the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump.

Longer lifespans have many ramifications for housing, health care and mobility. They also have ramifications on US elections as the number of older adults continues to grow, packing even more clout on influencing political agendas by both Republicans and Democrats and perhaps deciding who will face off in the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump.

The graying of America isn’t news, but the ramifications of a larger, older population on US elections may be underappreciated and undervalued in political campaign strategies, including for the 2020 presidential election.

Michael Hobbes, writing for Huffpost, says, “The US electorate is the oldest it’s ever been and will keep getting older for at least four more decades. Voters over retirement age will continue to dominate US politics until at least 2060.”

Not only are there more older people in America, Hobbes says there are more older registered voters who actually vote. Older voters take a different set of issues and perspectives to the ballot box than younger generations. And older voters are whiter and wealthier than younger cohorts.

“Older voters have unique characteristics and specific interests that transcend the Democratic-Republican divide,” Hobbes says. “From their economic circumstances to their demographic makeup, the concerns of older voters are only going to become more prominent as the baby boom generation enters retirement.” 

That’s why, he adds, politicians don’t like to cross older voters on issues such as Medicare and Social Security. In less obvious ways, they also recognize older Americans are largely white, traditional in their social views, more comfortable with the status quo and wealthier than the generations that follow them.

Washington Governor Jay Inslee is one of seven declared or soon-to-declare candidates running for president who is 65 years or older. President Trump is 72. Based on current polls, if Joe Biden enters the race as expected, he will be the Democratic frontrunner. Biden is 76. His closest challenger is Bernie Sanders who is 77.

Washington Governor Jay Inslee is one of seven declared or soon-to-declare candidates running for president who is 65 years or older. President Trump is 72. Based on current polls, if Joe Biden enters the race as expected, he will be the Democratic frontrunner. Biden is 76. His closest challenger is Bernie Sanders who is 77.

These tensions are evident in the mix of Democratic presidential candidates that stretch from young, fresh faces touting universal health care, free college tuition and transformational climate change policies to older, more seasoned pols who talk about preserving Social Security and Medicare and pursuing progressive legislation at a more measured pace. 

Young progressives point to the energy and new voters they are bringing to the Democratic Party. But in raw numbers, eligible voters who are 65 or older already outnumber Millennials and the gap is projected to grow larger over the next four presidential election years. That could heavily influence whether a fresh, younger face or a familiar, older face wins the Democratic nomination after the gauntlet of primary elections. Almost half of the declared or likely candidates for president in 2020 are 65 or older. 

Older voters have historically been more Republican than Democratic. Even though that is changing overall and especially in highly blue states, older adults as an age group are more moderate in their viewpoints. They tend to see themselves as the people who will have to pay for whatever policies are enacted. That reticence is almost hard-wired into the political process, according to Hobbes, and affects both Democratic and Republican policymaking. 

“To a great extent, older voters are still setting the agenda,” says Andrea Campbell, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology political scientist. “They’re incredibly important to both parties’ coalitions. Politicians remain reluctant to run afoul of older voters.”

As AARP bluntly said in its April 30, 2018 bulletin, “If candidates want to win, they better pay attention to the issues that matter to Americans 50-plus.”

 

A New Generation Hard-Wired to Technology

For youngsters born since 2010, social researcher Mark McCrindle says they are growing up surrounded by technology they will regard as part of the hard wiring of normal life. The rest of us will have to adjust.  Illustration Credit: Michele Marconi

For youngsters born since 2010, social researcher Mark McCrindle says they are growing up surrounded by technology they will regard as part of the hard wiring of normal life. The rest of us will have to adjust.

Illustration Credit: Michele Marconi

A new generation is walking around and will likely confound parents, teachers and marketers as much or more than Millennials.

Generation Alpha, which consists of people born after 2010, will be more digitally savvy – and digitally enslaved. As social researcher Mark McCrindle discovered, technology will permeate every aspect of life for Generation Alpha members – from toys to consumer expectations.

Grandson Hudson deftly manipulates an iPad, almost as if it is an extension of hand.

Grandson Hudson deftly manipulates an iPad, almost as if it is an extension of hand.

I can attest. We just bought a birthday present for Hudson, our 6-year-old grandson, that will allow him to assemble a robot and code how it operates. In my day, I thought it was a big deal to have a puppet with strings that moved its lips and limbs.

McCrindle and his project partner Wired Consulting predict voice technology will become more dominant in the Generation Alpha era. No one will debate how much screen time is good or bad because almost everything will operate with a screen. There will be an internet of toys that responds to commands and demonstrates their own emotional intelligence.

Delayed gratification will be an extremely hard concept to sell this generation, which will be accustomed from an early age to instant feedback.

“Virtual Reality” may recede as a term, replaced by prevalent virtual experiences – from space exploration to house-hunting to dating (less risky and expensive).

Robots may go from scrappy metal competitors for good jobs to trusted companions offering uncomplicated relationships.

In short, Generation Alpha will be different than any generation before it, perhaps by a greater extent than any previous succeeding generation. That difference could further strain educational pedagogy, consumer marketing and parental patience. “We have been doing this for a long time” won’t be an effective message to this emerging cohort.

This new generation bursts on the scene before existing generations have answered all the questions digital technology has posed. Many of us aren’t sure we have thought of all the questions yet. For example, is Facebook as addictive as nicotine in cigarettes? Was the Facebook addiction accidental or intentional? Is there a market for Facebook farms where people can unplug for a week or more and learn how to talk someone in person?

Our grandson competes in chess tournaments and whips older kids. He may just be bright. He could assemble 100-piece puzzles when he was three. But when you watch him and his buddies deftly manipulate iPads, you realize these kids don’t separate the normal course of things from technology. Technology to him is the norm.

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Gary Conkling is president and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. But most importantly, he’s a die-hard Ducks fan. You can reach Gary at garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @GaryConkling.

Younger Voters Eclipsed Older Voters in 2016 Election

 The 2016 election marked a milepost as Millennials and Gen Xers cast more ballots than their older counterparts, which should signal new campaign and policy approaches to younger voters who are better educated, more secular and less reliable to cast ballots.

 The 2016 election marked a milepost as Millennials and Gen Xers cast more ballots than their older counterparts, which should signal new campaign and policy approaches to younger voters who are better educated, more secular and less reliable to cast ballots.

The 2016 general election will go down in history for a lot of things, including the first time Millennial and Gen X voters eclipsed older voters.

Based on an analysis of Census Bureau data conducted by Pew Research, 69.6 million Americans between the ages of 18 and 51 voted in the 2016 election. Baby Boomers and older generations cast 67.9 million ballots.

More young people become eligible to vote while older people die or emigrate. While the result isn’t surprising, it marks a milepost in US demography when younger, next-generation voters become a majority, which will influence how political campaigns are focused.

Conventional wisdom is that younger voters lean Democratic. Numbers bear that out, but also is a hint that a chunk of Millennials are more conservative than Gen X or Baby Boomers were at the same age. It also may be true, as evidenced by strong support among younger voters for the presidential candidacy of Bernie Sanders, that younger Democrats are more liberal than their older counterparts.

NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben reports they may be even deeper polarization among Millennials than previous generations. If so, that could complicate any efforts to lower the volume on political discourse and exert more energy looking for common ground.

In addition to greater political polarization, Millennials overall have fewer religious ties and are better educated. They are less white and more Latino. There is also a question about their motivation to vote. Gen Xers and Millennials as age cohorts outgrew Boomers and older generations before 2016, but voter participation rates lagged behind. Pew found only half of Millennials voted in the 2016 election compared to two-thirds for older cohorts, which may have played a role in tipping the presidential election to Donald Trump.

What bears watching is how Millennials settle in as voters. Exit polls in the 2012 presidential election showed GOP challenger Mitt Romney beating President Obama by 2 percentage points among whites ages 18 to 29 with at least a four-year college degree. Four years later, Hillary Clinton beat Trump among college-educated white people by 15 percentage points. Trump scored well with young white voters who identified as evangelicals or lived in rural areas or states with large white majorities. Clinton’s large margin of votes from younger votes was canceled out when many Millennials lost interest after the presidential primaries or voted for third-party candidates.