tax-cut legislation

Prospects for Bipartisanship in an Election Year

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said 2018 should be a year of bipartisan compromise, but that may be easier said than done after the GOP-controlled Congress shoved through a massive tax cut at the end of 2017 and ideological differences in the House threaten to blunt deals with Senate Democrats. [Photo Credit: AP/Susan Walsh]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said 2018 should be a year of bipartisan compromise, but that may be easier said than done after the GOP-controlled Congress shoved through a massive tax cut at the end of 2017 and ideological differences in the House threaten to blunt deals with Senate Democrats. [Photo Credit: AP/Susan Walsh]

Will 2018 be the year of congressional bipartisanship or a retreat to political trenches before the November general election? It is a critical question that could determine the shape of spending, immigration, pension protection, defense, foreign policy and border security legislation.

It is also a question of time as the Senate returns to work this week and the House comes back next week.

The next Waterloo date for Congress is January 19 when the current short-term spending measure expires. Reconciliation rules don’t apply, which means whatever legislation emerges must pass the 60-vote cloture hurdle in the Senate. Christmas has passed, so GOP congressional leaders can’t rely on Democratic reluctance to allow a holiday federal government shutdown.

Before the holiday break, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell signaled a need to seek bipartisan approaches in 2018. House Speaker Paul Ryan has focused more on trimming spending on so-called entitlement programs, which is unlikely to attract much bipartisan support. Congressional Democrats can be expected to weigh compromise against electoral advantage.

There is no better example of the political watershed than Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Democrats want a clean bill to secure their place in America and a path to citizenship. President Trump plopped the issue in the lap of Congress with a March 5 deadline as leverage to gain Democratic support for his promised border wall. Congressional Republicans may stop short of the Trump wall, but want fortified border security as part of any deal.

Trump gave Congress until March to reach a compromise. Latino interest groups expressed displeasure at Democratic failure to force the DACA issue in the pre-Christmas spending showdown, which foreshadows a more aggressive stance by Democrats in January negotiations. Conservative Republicans equate protection for children brought to America by their parents illegally as amnesty, which they have pledged to oppose.

There aren’t any obvious silver-bullet issues to inspire bipartisanship. The closest no-brainer issue is continued funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Before heading home for Christmas, Congress ponied up $3 billion to sustain CHIP for three months. Democrats want CHIP to continue while House Republicans appear to view it as a vehicle to dismantle additional parts of the Affordable Care Act.

During the holiday break, Democrats floated a new issue that could be a wrench in the works or a possible bargaining chip. On “Face the Nation,” Michigan Congresswoman Debbie Dingell and New York Congressman Joe Crowley called for government-backed private pension protection. Even though the recent run-up in the stock markets have boosted retirement accounts, Dingell and Crowley argued many Americans remains under water because of the Great Recession and pressure on private pensions continues to mount. The proposed solution involves government securitization of pension benefits, much like protection for savings accounts in banks, through some form of bonding. Democrats figure this issue would especially appeal to middle-class Americans.

Republicans, supported by Trump, want to boost military spending. The price for Democrats is increased social spending – or avoiding cuts in Medicaid. There eventually will be a deal on spending and an increase on the debt ceiling, but the deal that Senate Democrats would support may splinter the GOP majority in the House.

How forceful each side remains could depend on public reaction to the GOP-passed tax-cut legislation. Backers of the $1.5 trillion tax cut are counting on bolstered take-home pay as early as February to start changing American opinion about the legislation, which Democrats branded as heavily benefitting corporations and wealthier taxpayers.

If fatter paychecks turn heads, it may embolden Republicans. If the tax cuts seem insignificant, then Democrats may become more obstinate.

The congressional agenda is chocked full of other issues, including an extension of FISA court orders required to conduct domestic surveillance and additional disaster relief for states and territories hit hard by hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Both offer some glimmer of hope for bipartisan cooperation.

Another possible bipartisan topic is stabilization of health insurance markets. Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins voted for tax-cut legislation on promises by here Republican colleagues to address the issue by agreeing to give insurers as much as $10.5 billion to compensate for coverage for high-cost and poor people. The conservative wing in the House has given that idea a cool reception as it warns about more spending driving up the federal deficit.

On philosophical grounds, the most likely bipartisan target is increased funding on infrastructure. Trump has promised to submit his plan to Congress this month and congressional leaders also have been working on proposals. Again, the pain point may be more spending and a higher deficit. That argument inevitably will revive the debate over the GOP-backed tax cut and whether it starts paying off in 2018.

The Wonder and Worry Surrounding Washington, DC

The nation’s capital is preparing for Christmas, but there isn’t much cheer on Capitol Hill as lawmakers narrowly avert a government shutdown, try to unsnarl problems in tax-cut legislation and muddle through sexual misconduct scandals

The nation’s capital is preparing for Christmas, but there isn’t much cheer on Capitol Hill as lawmakers narrowly avert a government shutdown, try to unsnarl problems in tax-cut legislation and muddle through sexual misconduct scandals

Congress temporarily averted a pre-Christmas federal government shutdown by approving a two-week spending resolutionHouse and Senate conferees are trying to work out differences, including an apparent $287 billion math error, in a $1.4 trillion tax-cut measure. House Speaker Paul Ryan foreshadowed entitlement spending cuts next year to curb a ballooning federal budget deficit.

A prominent Democratic House member and senator have resigned amid sexual misconduct scandals. An Arizona GOP congressman is quitting after discussing surrogacy with two staff members. Alabama is likely to send a new senator to Washington, DC who has been accused of dating teenage girls, denies any wrongdoing and says he would bring Alabama values to Capitol Hill.

President Trump announced he will send his long-promised infrastructure funding package to Congress in January without mentioning that private activity bonds, a key financing tool for transportation and affordable housing projects, may be eviscerated beforehand in tax legislation he has championed.

Trump efforts to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement are faltering amid concerns by many business sectors that what Trump wants in a new deal would hurt existing trade and endanger US manufacturing jobs. The United States has walked away from a trade deal with its Pacific Rim neighbors, but the deal is not dead. Japan is leading continuing talks, which could lead to provisions less favorable to the United States and, eventually a seat at the table for China.

Ignoring warnings by top Cabinet officials, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital while urging progress on stalled peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. Two days later, Palestinian leaders refused to meet with Vice President Mike Pence.

Revelations in the Russian election meddling investigation continue to roll out, inflamed by a Trump tweet, a whistleblower’s account and Donald Trump Jr. who said what he told his dad after the infamous meeting with Russians last summer was protected by attorney-client privilege.

People abroad might be excused for wondering and worrying what is happening in the United States. People who live in the United States are wondering and worrying, too.

The President goes out of his way to stir the pot – retweeting inflammatory videos, pulling the rug out from under his GOP Capitol Hill colleagues and amping up rhetoric aimed at North Korea. Congress has failed to deliver a major legislative victory to Trump in his first year in office and is still fumbling with the last-chance tax bill. A late addition to the Senate version that would retain the corporate alternative minimum tax has caused corporate leaders – putatively the biggest winners in the measure – to voice concern. Polling indicates the tax bill is unpopular, including with many Republicans.

Democrats and Republicans are growing even more polarized. After a Trump tweet, the House and Senate Democratic leaders refused to join a White House pow-wow on spending and debt ceiling legislation. Their GOP counterparts called the snub rude. Trump said Democrats were putting border security at risk.

The parties have been split over cultural issues for a long time, but sexual misconduct scandals have turned litmus tests into flash points. The resignations of Democratic Congressman John Conyers and Senator Al Franken, which were accelerated by a collective shove in their backs by fellow Democrats, put the party on presumably higher moral ground to denounce Alabama senatorial candidate Roy Moore and Trump, each of whom has been accused by multiple women for sexual misconduct. Arizona Congressman Trent Franks apparently got the message.

Ryan’s prediction that action will be needed next year to stem the budget deficit could push Congress onto third-rail political issues such as Social Security and Medicare, as well as Medicaid. Conservative GOP members want to boost military spending while trimming spending and the deficit. Democrats are pressing for more domestic spending and to keep hands off Social Security and Medicare.

It is not a pretty picture, with a bruising holiday mash-up looming between now and December 22 over a longer spending measure and an increase in the debt ceiling.