infrastructure package

Washington House Races Could Punctuate Blue Wave – Or Not

fivethirtyeight.com  indicates a high probability of Democrats regaining control of the US House in next Tuesday’s midterm election. Three tightly contested House seats in Washington now held by Republicans could punctuate a Democratic blue wave or sustain GOP control.

fivethirtyeight.com indicates a high probability of Democrats regaining control of the US House in next Tuesday’s midterm election. Three tightly contested House seats in Washington now held by Republicans could punctuate a Democratic blue wave or sustain GOP control.

Three contested US House races in Washington that will be decided on Tuesday could punctuate a national Democratic blue wave or confirm continuing control of Congress by Republicans.

Flipping control of the House has emerged as a major storyline of the 2018 midterm election. Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to regain control. More than half of the midterm elections since 1994 have featured a 24+ seat swing. In the 2010 midterm election that produced the current run of Republican control, 64 House seats went from blue to red.

Fivethirtyeight.com gives Democrats an 85.5 percent chance to win back control of the House with the highest probability gain of 39 seats. A Washington Post poll shows projected Democratic voters slightly outnumber Republicans in key House races.

However, elections are like football games. It matters who comes out to play. Voter turnout remains the key, especially in roughly 30 or so swing districts that either a Democrat or Republican has a chance to win. 

The three House races in Washington are all in Republican hands.

  • Four-term Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler faces a stiff challenge from Carolyn Long in the 3rd District, which includes Vancouver and Southwest Washington.

  • Republican Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rogers is being tested in the GOP-dominated 5th District in Eastern Washington by a well-funded Democratic challenger, Lisa Brown.

  • In the open 8th District seat in the Seattle suburbs, former GOP candidate Dino Rossi is trying to hold onto the seat held for seven terms by fellow Republican Dave Reichert, but is being significantly outspent by Democrat Kim Schrier.

Herrera Beutler and McMorris Rogers won election in 2016 with decisive margins in their respective districts, but aggressive Democratic challengers have amassed sizable war chests to contest their re-election this year. As of October 17, Long had reeled in $2.7 million in mostly individual contributions while Brown secured $4.6 million against an entrenched incumbent. In the open House seat race, Schrier has raised $6.1 million compared to Republican Rossi’s $3.9 million.

What makes individual House races – and to a lesser degree Senate races – more competitive this year is the national character of the midterm elections, largely turning on the oversized personality of President Trump. In many ways, the midterm election in toss-up districts and states is being viewed as a referendum on Trump. Trump is campaigning in states and congressional districts where he hopes his popularity and political agenda persuade voters to retain Republicans.

Democratic control of the Senate is possible, but not likely. Of the 35 Senate seats up this year, 26 are held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats hold Senate seats in Montana, Indiana, West Virginia and Missouri, which are states Trump carried in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democrats in Montana, Missouri and Indiana are trailing or are running neck-and-neck with their GOP challengers. Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson also is in a close race with his Republican challenger, current Governor Rick Scott. 

Democrats have mounted spirited Senate campaigns against GOP incumbents in Texas and Nevada and they are hopeful to pick up the Arizona Senate seat held by Jeff Flake who isn’t seeking re-election.

If Democrats manage to take control of one or both chambers, the lame duck Congress becomes very important to Republicans. The GOP will likely try to accomplish as much as possible between November and next January when the 116th Congress is sworn in and its majority dissolves.

After January, Democrats would likely exercise their newfound power to halt the Republican legislative agenda and initiate oversight investigations into Trump and his administration. There is some hope a Democratic House and the Trump administration could work together on one big major legislative item – an infrastructure package.

What If?

If Republicans retain majorities in the House and Senate, it will be full speed ahead. A new speaker of the House to replace the outgoing Paul Ryan will join Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in tackling several remaining legislative initiatives Republicans weren’t able to accomplish in the last two years.

What About Earmarks?

We’ve heard for months of certain prominent House Democrats intentions to bring back earmarks if they regain the majority in the House. It’s unclear what it would look like, especially with a Republican Senate and Democratic House. Senate Republicans could resist a return to earmarks, but it’s entirely possible for the House to go it alone and Senate Republicans may be forced to go along. 

The new earmark system will likely be limited in scope compared to the old process, featuring stricter guidelines and requiring committed local match funding for any earmark project. Several popular grant programs would likely remain, but a return to earmarks would open up federal funding for an array of municipal and public-sector projects that don’t fit the guidelines of existing federal grant programs.

Congress Faces Yet Another Spending Deadline

 In what might be an omen for this week on Capitol Hill as Congress faces yet another spending deadline, the train carrying Republicans to their West Virginia retreat site. Just as ominous, Democrats are scheduled to begin their 3-day retreat the day before this week’s deadline.

 In what might be an omen for this week on Capitol Hill as Congress faces yet another spending deadline, the train carrying Republicans to their West Virginia retreat site. Just as ominous, Democrats are scheduled to begin their 3-day retreat the day before this week’s deadline.

In the aftermath of President Trump’s first State of the Union Address and the hullabaloo over release of the GOP surveillance memo, the looming government spending deadline this Thursday almost slipped out of sight. Almost.

As bitter and battle-weary Members of Congress trudge back to Capitol Hill this week, the deadline will be anything but invisible. What’s hard to see is any compromise that can win enough support from Senate Democrats, House conservatives and the Trump White House. Before they resolve differences on spending, they need to agree on immigration.

Senate Democrats want protection for so-called Dreamers, but House conservatives object to granting them an eventual path to citizenship. Trump offered up long-term protection for Dreamers, but at the price of a $25 billion “trust fund” for his promised border wall, which Senate Democrats reject.

Republican Congressman Will Hurd, a former undercover CIA officer whose Texas congressional district includes the longest stretch of the US-Mexican border, has proposed a simple compromise, along with Democratic Congressman Pete Aguilar of California. Their proposal would protect Dreamers and provide for enhanced border security, but not necessarily a huge investment in a physical wall. It’s uncertain whether Trump or a majority of House Republicans would support their proposal.

immigration may be the roadblock to a compromise, but disagreements over spending, especially for defense and health care programs, are like a washed-out bridge. The inability to agree on spending in the current federal fiscal year has led to four continuing resolutions – stopgap funding measures that generally allow federal agencies to keep plugging along with the same budget as the previous year.

The disagreement isn’t just over on how to spend federal dollars, but how many federal dollars to spend. After Republicans pushed through a $1.5 trillion tax cut, which may add as much as $1 trillion to the federal deficit this year, House conservatives are wary of spending even more. Democrats are pressing for restoration of funding for community health centers and more generous disaster relief for states affected by hurricanes, floods and wildfires.

Stop-and-go spending authorization has prevented agencies from the Pentagon to the Centers for Disease Control to pursue new objectives and resulted in an added layer of government inefficiency. Defense Secretary James Mattis has warned that the inability of Congress to pass a budget has weakened US security.

While there is broad bipartisan agreement on the need for infrastructure investment, there is widespread disagreement on how much should come from direct federal spending – and how whatever level of funding is approved will be paid for. 

Since the three-day partial government shutdown that ended with another continuing resolution and the February 8 deadline, there isn’t much public evidence of productive negotiations. Most of last week was consumed by Trump’s speech and bitter partisan back-and-forth about the memo released by the House Intelligence Committee’s GOP majority. That’s not a great starting block for negotiations to avoid another government shutdown the end of this week.

Rep. Adam Schiff, the lead Democrat on the committee, said over the weekend he will press for a vote as soon as today on the Democratic rejoinder to Chairman Kevin Nunes’ memo. Nunes has hinted he may be working on additional memos that he says may show anti-Trump bias in the State Department.

Despite Trump’s plea for bipartisanship in his State of the Union speech, his administration continues to provide fodder to deepen partisan divides. He has virtually gutted the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, refused to impose congressionally approved sanctions on Russian oligarchs and watched as his appointee to lead the Centers for Disease Control resigned after disclosures that she bought and sold tobacco stocks.

Still hanging around, but as far in the shadows as before, is the need to increase the national debt ceiling. Treasury officials say congressional action is needed in February. GOP congressional leaders almost certainly need Democratic votes in both the House and Senate to approve a debt limit increase, but that may prove politically complicated as well with so many other higher profile disagreements.

It will be an interesting week on Capitol Hill, which Vox chided will be punctuated by Republican and Democratic caucus retreats on the weekends before and after the latest spending drop-dead date. Perhaps as an omen, the train carrying Republicans to their West Virginia retreat site ran into a garbage truck. Just as ominous, Democrats are set to begin their 3-day retreat in Maryland the day before the spending deadline. Don’t bet against yet another temporary continuing spending resolution, as well as more political bickering. On the bright side, the Winter Olympics start this week.

 

New Leak Confirms Infrastructure Package Outline

The long-promised Trump infrastructure package may be unveiled later this month when the President delivers his State of the Union Address. A new leak confirms what we reported several weeks ago, including money that could be used to expand broadband access in rural areas.

The long-promised Trump infrastructure package may be unveiled later this month when the President delivers his State of the Union Address. A new leak confirms what we reported several weeks ago, including money that could be used to expand broadband access in rural areas.

Expectations are building that President Trump will unveil his long-promised infrastructure package during his State of the Union Address January 30.

A well-publicized leak of his proposal emerged this week, which conforms closely with what we reported – also based on leaked material – last month in this blog.

There will be four pots of money. The largest, totaling $100 billion, is intended to provide a federal incentive for transportation, water, hydroelectricity and brownfield reclamation projects. Money from this pot would cover 20 percent of project costs and non-federal funding would make up the rest.

A second pot sets aside $50 billion for rural projects, which also can include broadband investments. The last leak indicates $40 billion from this pot would be allocated to states after they produce a comprehensive rural investment plan.

A third pot would give the Department of Commerce the discretion to spend $20 billion on what are called transformative projects, including higher-risk and higher-reward projects.

Around $30 billion would be dedicated to federal capital financing and credit programs including TIFIA and WIFIA that are intended to spur public-private partnerships such as toll roads.

There are congressional proposals on infrastructure, so the final shape of a package that can pass remains to be seen. But it is encouraging to see the debate over an actual package may begin soon in Congress.

Congressional attention has been focused – and will continue to focus – on reaching an agreement on spending. The nation is operating under its fourth continuing resolution, with a February 8 deadline to negotiate a longer-term agreement under the shadow of other issues that range from increased military spending and immigration.

The three-day partial federal government shutdown that ended Monday may be a precursor of what’s to come. Senate Democrats want to use their limited leverage to filibuster to secure the future of 800,000 “Dreamers.” Trump and conservative Republicans in the House want to use the Dreamers as a bargaining chip to get up to $18 billion for a border wall and other changes in immigration policy.

The consensus view of political observers is that Senate Democrats folded fairly quickly because they weren’t geared up for a war of words in print and on social media. Republicans pounded them, saying they shut down the government to protect illegal immigrants.

Government shutdowns probably don’t shower any political party with praise, but Democrats may be better armed to defend their position if February 8 rolls around and there is no deal on immigration, border security or military spending.

The Wonder and Worry Surrounding Washington, DC

The nation’s capital is preparing for Christmas, but there isn’t much cheer on Capitol Hill as lawmakers narrowly avert a government shutdown, try to unsnarl problems in tax-cut legislation and muddle through sexual misconduct scandals

The nation’s capital is preparing for Christmas, but there isn’t much cheer on Capitol Hill as lawmakers narrowly avert a government shutdown, try to unsnarl problems in tax-cut legislation and muddle through sexual misconduct scandals

Congress temporarily averted a pre-Christmas federal government shutdown by approving a two-week spending resolutionHouse and Senate conferees are trying to work out differences, including an apparent $287 billion math error, in a $1.4 trillion tax-cut measure. House Speaker Paul Ryan foreshadowed entitlement spending cuts next year to curb a ballooning federal budget deficit.

A prominent Democratic House member and senator have resigned amid sexual misconduct scandals. An Arizona GOP congressman is quitting after discussing surrogacy with two staff members. Alabama is likely to send a new senator to Washington, DC who has been accused of dating teenage girls, denies any wrongdoing and says he would bring Alabama values to Capitol Hill.

President Trump announced he will send his long-promised infrastructure funding package to Congress in January without mentioning that private activity bonds, a key financing tool for transportation and affordable housing projects, may be eviscerated beforehand in tax legislation he has championed.

Trump efforts to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement are faltering amid concerns by many business sectors that what Trump wants in a new deal would hurt existing trade and endanger US manufacturing jobs. The United States has walked away from a trade deal with its Pacific Rim neighbors, but the deal is not dead. Japan is leading continuing talks, which could lead to provisions less favorable to the United States and, eventually a seat at the table for China.

Ignoring warnings by top Cabinet officials, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital while urging progress on stalled peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. Two days later, Palestinian leaders refused to meet with Vice President Mike Pence.

Revelations in the Russian election meddling investigation continue to roll out, inflamed by a Trump tweet, a whistleblower’s account and Donald Trump Jr. who said what he told his dad after the infamous meeting with Russians last summer was protected by attorney-client privilege.

People abroad might be excused for wondering and worrying what is happening in the United States. People who live in the United States are wondering and worrying, too.

The President goes out of his way to stir the pot – retweeting inflammatory videos, pulling the rug out from under his GOP Capitol Hill colleagues and amping up rhetoric aimed at North Korea. Congress has failed to deliver a major legislative victory to Trump in his first year in office and is still fumbling with the last-chance tax bill. A late addition to the Senate version that would retain the corporate alternative minimum tax has caused corporate leaders – putatively the biggest winners in the measure – to voice concern. Polling indicates the tax bill is unpopular, including with many Republicans.

Democrats and Republicans are growing even more polarized. After a Trump tweet, the House and Senate Democratic leaders refused to join a White House pow-wow on spending and debt ceiling legislation. Their GOP counterparts called the snub rude. Trump said Democrats were putting border security at risk.

The parties have been split over cultural issues for a long time, but sexual misconduct scandals have turned litmus tests into flash points. The resignations of Democratic Congressman John Conyers and Senator Al Franken, which were accelerated by a collective shove in their backs by fellow Democrats, put the party on presumably higher moral ground to denounce Alabama senatorial candidate Roy Moore and Trump, each of whom has been accused by multiple women for sexual misconduct. Arizona Congressman Trent Franks apparently got the message.

Ryan’s prediction that action will be needed next year to stem the budget deficit could push Congress onto third-rail political issues such as Social Security and Medicare, as well as Medicaid. Conservative GOP members want to boost military spending while trimming spending and the deficit. Democrats are pressing for more domestic spending and to keep hands off Social Security and Medicare.

It is not a pretty picture, with a bruising holiday mash-up looming between now and December 22 over a longer spending measure and an increase in the debt ceiling.

 

If All Else Fails, an Infrastructure Package Might Pass

The much ballyhooed $1 billion Trump infrastructure package has slipped into the shadows as the White House and the GOP-led Congress dote on repealing Obamacare and passing major tax cut legislation. But it all else fails, a bipartisan infrastructure deal might be a surprise Christmas gift to take home to voters.

The much ballyhooed $1 billion Trump infrastructure package has slipped into the shadows as the White House and the GOP-led Congress dote on repealing Obamacare and passing major tax cut legislation. But it all else fails, a bipartisan infrastructure deal might be a surprise Christmas gift to take home to voters.

As a second child, I know what it’s like to live in the shadows of an older sibling. I have plenty of friends and neighbors with three kids and I can only assume the level of attention drops off even more for number three.

President Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure package seems more and more like that third kid. He or she keeps jumping up and down for attention, but the first two children, in this case, health care and tax legislation keep getting all the love. The question is, if health care and tax legislation keep misbehaving, how quickly will the third child become the center of attention? It’s possible it may be sooner than you think.

The ultimate backdrop is this: President Trump needs a big legislative victory in 2017 and, despite what he says, he hasn’t landed one yet. If all three of these big-ticket items get pushed to 2018, an election year, it’s going to be extremely difficult to get anything done. 

Democrats already have a disincentive to work with Trump. Their base despises him and generally doesn’t want to see their party leaders giving him any “wins.” This problem will only get worse with every passing day as we get closer to November 2018 and the mid-term elections. 

With only a two-seat majority, the Senate is generally the biggest impediment to moving any party-line legislation. We should know shortly whether tax cuts will have a chance of getting through the Senate.

This week, the Senate will be taking up the FY18 budget resolution. The centerpiece of the resolution is a broad outline for $1.5 trillion in tax cuts – and a secret parliamentary passageway to approve the tax cuts with only a simple majority.

Passage of the resolution doesn’t ensure that a tax package will be passed later in the year, but if the budget resolution is defeated, tax reform is basically dead. Then where does that leave us? Oh yeah, our new industrious, job creating and hardworking favorite child, Infrastructure Package.

The Trump administration could quickly turn its attention to a broad bipartisan deal that is supported by most Democrats and moderate Republicans. Infrastructure projects for roads, bridges, transit, housing, water infrastructure and veteran’s facilities are all politically popular and could quickly come together in the final months of 2017. It may be the first Christmas in years that the third child gets a bigger present than his two siblings.

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As Vice President, Federal Affairs, Joel brings to CFM broad public policy experience as a senior Congressional aide and successful private sector lobbyist.

Senate Delays August Recess as Another Russian Collusion Shoe Drops

A bustling beginning on Capitol Hill after the July 4 break, including a 2-week delay of the next recess, was overshadowed by yet another shoe dropping in the Trump-Russian collusion matter that involved someone in President Trump’s immediate family.

A bustling beginning on Capitol Hill after the July 4 break, including a 2-week delay of the next recess, was overshadowed by yet another shoe dropping in the Trump-Russian collusion matter that involved someone in President Trump’s immediate family.

The Senate will delay its August recess, the shape of a revamped GOP health care bill was released and Republicans said they would include funding for President Trump’s border wall in the Fiscal Year 2018 budget. And another shoe dropped on the ongoing story of Trump team collusion with Russians in the 2016 presidential election.

It was quite a beginning to a week after Members of Congress returned from their July 4 break.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced the senatorial August recess would be delayed until the third week of the month to allow time to consider legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare and confirm presidential nominees. The lack of major legislative victories prompted several members of the Senate GOP caucus to urge McConnell to shrink the month-long August recess.

The Republican bill to replace Obamacare will be released later this week and, according to McConnell, voted on next week. However, its basic outline surfaced today. Senior Republicans said the Medicaid cuts in the earlier version would remain. What’s different will be retaining at least two of Obamacare’s taxes – the 3.8 percent investment tax and 0.9 percent Medicare surtax on upper-income earners – to boost the amount available by $230 billion for tax credits to push down premium costs – and woo wavering Republican colleagues.

They also said an alternative version pushed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, which would allow insurers to sell bare-bones policies, could be an amendment that is considered. Neither the emerging GOP health care plan or the Cruz amendment will have scoring from the Congressional Budget Office until early next week.

At least two Republican senators – Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins – gave reactions to the media that didn’t sound like they had been convinced by the changes in the bill. If McConnell loses another Republican vote, the bill can’t pass.

One reason for the 2-week August recess delay is to catch up on the backlog of stalled Trump nominees. Senate GOP leaders blamed delays on foot-dragging Democrats. Data suggests part of the problem is the failure of the Trump administration to send formal nominations to Capitol Hill.

One reason for the 2-week August recess delay is to catch up on the backlog of stalled Trump nominees. Senate GOP leaders blamed delays on foot-dragging Democrats. Data suggests part of the problem is the failure of the Trump administration to send formal nominations to Capitol Hill.

Democrats, including Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, have urged McConnell to ditch the current GOP approach and engage in bipartisan negotiations. Wyden expressed willigness to find ways to bolster the individual health insurance market and the health exchanges. He also said pressure on insurance premiums could be relieved by pursuing strategies to curb the price of prescription drugs. Trump and, later, Vice President Mike Pence have suggested repealing Obamacare now with an effective date in 2020 to allow more time to reach a consensus on how to replace it.

GOP leaders signaled their FY18 budget will contain funding for Trump’s controversial border wall. Before the July 4 congressional break, conservative Republican lawmakers threaten to vote against any budget without funding for the wall. Now the political calculus may change with Democrats refusing to back a budget containing wall funding.

Nobody mentioned voting to raise the debt ceiling, which was breached in March. Instead, McConnell and other GOP Senate leaders deplored Democratic foot-dragging on confirming Trump administration nominees. According to The Washington Post, there are 145 formally submitted Trump nominations pending in the Senate. Only 48 Trump nominees have been confirmed, but Trump’s team has failed to submit a nominee for 382 of 564 key federal appointed positions.

President Obama by the same time in his first year in office had 200 of his nominees confirmed, with another 151 awaiting confirmation by the Senate. The average confirmation time for Obama nominees was 37 days, compared to an average of 44 days for Trump nominees.

The big news of the week, however, will probably be the release of an email string by Donald Trump Jr. that shows he agreed to meet last June with a Russian attorney after being lured by the promise of sensitive material detrimental to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. The emails indicate the material was from the Russian government and was intended to boost Trump’s candidacy.

Trump Jr. says no material was transmitted at the meeting, which Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort also attended, but critics and some legal experts say that may be irrelevant. They noted it is illegal to solicit or accept items of value from foreign nationals, which presumably would include politically embarrassing dirt on an opponent. Some of the reactions on Capitol Hill ranged from calling the younger Trump’s behavior “problematic” to stronger references that included “treason.” Wyden, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the emails remove any question about whether there was collusion between Trump and Russian officials and leave it to all Members of Congress to find out the extent of the collusion.

Hanging over congressional Republicans is the nightmarish possibility of heading home later this summer with no major legislative victories, little progress on priorities such as tax cuts and infrastructure investment and a president under siege. Trump officials said they won’t submit a tax proposal until September and details of an infrastructure package until next year.

GOP Gets Breathing Room to Pursue Priorities

The appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller to lead the Russian meddling  investigation has given GOP congressional leaders breathing room to work on their stalled legislative priorities that reflect campaign promises.

The appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller to lead the Russian meddling  investigation has given GOP congressional leaders breathing room to work on their stalled legislative priorities that reflect campaign promises.

The appointment of former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel in the ongoing Russian meddling probe may be bad news for President Trump and his associates, but good news for congressional Republicans. It could give them the political space to tackle their major legislative priorities before congressmen head home for an August recess.

And the agenda is daunting – replacing Obamacare, a major tax cut, progress on the Fiscal Year 2018 federal budget, an infrastructure package and passage of a debt ceiling increase.

The drip, drip of news revelations about the Trump’s team entanglements with Russians has distracted the White House and seemingly delayed any substantive tax proposal. The House narrowly passed an Obamacare replacement bill, with Trump’s support, but that legislation has bogged down in the Senate. The Trump FY 2018 budget proposal was pronounced dead on arrival on Capitol Hill, at least in part for what critics call a $2 trillion math error on how to pay for a major tax cut.

GOP congressional leaders felt under the gun to intensify committee probes into Trump’s Russian connections, until the Department of Justice appointed Mueller to lead the criminal investigation. Many Hill Republicans are hopeful that, with the investigative burden shifting from Congress to Mueller, they can focus less on the scandal and more on addressing their list of looming deadlines and campaign promises – a long list that Congress has made little headway on achieving.

However, the breathing space they now have still may not be enough time to pass their legislative agenda.

Senate leadership staff huddles this week to begin drafting from scratch a new alternative to the House-passed American Health Care Act (AHCA). The Senate has the benefit of the Congressional Budget Office score, which estimates 23 million people would lose health insurance over the next decade. New public opinion polls indicate Obamacare is more popular than the AHCA. Even if they are successful, it make take time to ensure all the details fit together.
 
On the other side of Capitol Hill, House appropriators are trying to figure out how to keep the government’s doors open when the new fiscal year begins October 1. Delayed action on fiscal 2017 spending, combined with the GOP’s decision to start with a health care overhaul, has put Congress months behind schedule on appropriations for FY 2018.

House appropriators are weighing an ambitious plan to pass a 12-bill omnibus appropriations package ahead of the August recess.  Given the very late start, appropriators would need to mark up their respective bills at a record pace to bring a full package to the floor before July 31. Even if they can pull off this monumental task, they will face an even bigger political hurdle garnering the necessary Democratic votes in the Senate.

Democrats retain some leverage in both the House and Senate in regard to passing a debt ceiling increase, which GOP conservatives won’t support, even though failure to raise the debt ceiling could result in US default on loans. How much leverage Democrats have and what they will use it for remains unknown.

Hope of passing tax and infrastructure legislation before August is dim, but getting a health care bill and an FY 2018 budget approved but the August recess would improve odds for addressing those issues by the end of the year.

While Mueller’s appointment gives breathing room to GOP lawmakers to work on their priorities, success is still tied to Trump and his ability to focus on advancing legislation without more self-inflicted controversy, such as his unsolicited comment about spending more on health care even though the AHCA, which he supported, would spend less.

Michael Skipper is CFM’s Federal Affairs Associate. Before joining the team in Washington, D.C., Michael worked on state affairs in Oregon, where he also studied political science and environmental policy at OSU. In his free time, Michael enjoys traveling, reading and spending time with friends and family. You can reach him at michaels@cfmpdx.com

 

 

Garrett, who will be CFM’s Manager, Federal Affairs, can be reached at his CFM email address: kirbyg@cfmdc.com.