congress

Boehner Bombshell Shifts Capitol Landscape

Speaker John Boehner's bombshell resignation announcement shifted the political ground on Capitol Hill, making short-term issues easier to resolve, but creating some longer term obstacles that may be harder to move.

Speaker John Boehner's bombshell resignation announcement shifted the political ground on Capitol Hill, making short-term issues easier to resolve, but creating some longer term obstacles that may be harder to move.

Speaker John Boehner's surprise announcement to retire at the end of October has shifted the landscape on Capitol Hill and may presage an even more dramatic shift later this year.

No longer beholden to the "Freedom Caucus"  – the far right flank of the GOP, Boehner has the flexibility to push more moderate legislation through the House over the next 32 days. The question is, how much can he really get done and what are the short- and long-term implications for the next House Speaker?

In the short-term, the retirement announcement has provided breathing room for the Speaker. The chances of an October 1 government shutdown have nearly evaporated, bipartisan passage of a drama-free debt ceiling bill is more likely and there is hope for a compromise on a transportation/tax reform package. Without the constant threat of a motion to "vacate the Speaker," other bills could hitch a ride on a fast track, including reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank.

Don't get too optimistic. It's also clear the next Speaker will have to deal with the consequences of an unhinged Boehner. Next in line to the Speakership is Boehner friend and ally, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy from California. The more bipartisan legislation that moves in October, the higher the level of conservative frustration later in the GOP caucus. To be elected Speaker, McCarthy can only lose 29 votes from the GOP ranks – 24 of whom already voted against Boehner in January. Thus, McCarthy can only lose five more Republicans to avoid an all-out scramble for the Speaker's position. 

If McCarthy is tied to the Speaker's actions over the next month, his ascension to Speaker could be put in jeopardy. So Boehner is still going to have to balance the risks and rewards of moving legislation in his final days. Bipartisan action would continue to stoke tensions within the Republican Party and could bring the confrontation past the boiling point to a full revolt. Boehner is a master politician though, so he may manage to clear the decks of some of the most contentious issues and leave the institution he loves on a high note.

Here is some quick analysis on how key provisions could be impacted by the Speaker's departure:

September 30 Budget Showdown/Shutdown – Boehner is no longer beholden to the far right and word from GOP leadership is the Speaker will offer up a clean Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government funded through December 11. The CR will not contain the controversial repeal of funding for Planned Parenthood. Without the Planned Parenthood funding repeal, the GOP will lose 30-50 votes for the CR and Republicans will need to rely on Democrats to pass the bill. The measure will likely pass by Wednesday evening, just in time for the September 30 end of fiscal year deadline.

Debt Limit Increase – Another casualty of Boehner's departure could be a showdown over the debt limit. With an historic debt of $19 trillion, the country needs to increase its credit limit once again before it defaults. Unfortunately, the debt limit increase is becoming an annual affair. 

The timeline for default is not exact, but will likely happen in November. It's expected Boehner will try to act before he leaves office to clear the decks for the next Speaker. Typically, the Freedom Caucus has been steadfast in its opposition to raising the debt limit without a dollar-for-dollar cut in spending. The Obama Administration meanwhile has said the debt limit is not a tool for negotiation, even though in 2011, that's how we got the Super Committee and Sequestration. 

Transportation and Tax Reform– The fate of the transportation bill also could benefit. Word out of leadership and the House T&I Committee is that Chairman Bill Shuster and Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan have a six-year package that is ready to be unveiled. With the blessing of the Speaker, a transportation/tax reform package could receive an expedited path to the floor of the House. Many Freedom Caucus members have opposed additional federal spending on transportation. October could be the perfect time to get a popular bipartisan bill through the House.

Sequestration Cap – Without another 2013 Murray/Ryan type of agreement, the two-year sequestration relief bill will expire October 1. Both Republicans and Democrats want to lift the cap, but for different reasons. Republicans generally want more defense spending, while Democrats want more non-defense spending. It is hard to be optimistic that the Speaker can reach a deal to lift the spending caps before he leaves. However, there will certainly be pressure on him to expedite negotiations and resolve the issue.

December 11 – The likelihood of a government shutdown on December 11 has gone up significantly. An emboldened Freedom Caucus, a lame duck President Obama and presidential politics are could conspire to make this a tumultuous December. It will take  fancy footwork from both sides to come together on the FY16 spending package.

DRIVE Act Enters Passing Lane

This is a follow up from our initial post, DRIVE Act: The Little Engine That Might 

Congressional action on transportation funding remains fluid as the Senate gears up to act in the shadow of a looming deadline July 31.

Congressional action on transportation funding remains fluid as the Senate gears up to act in the shadow of a looming deadline July 31.

The Senate last night secured enough votes to advance the 6-year transportation bill. The procedural vote, which passed 62-36, allows the Senate to debate the bill and consider amendments.
 
While funding for the overall STP program was increased and the allocation to local governments was increased to 55 percent from 50 percent, the bill includes a little sleight-of-hand feature that actually reduces STP funds to municipal governments. The bill requires that 15 percent of the STP suballocation for local governments go toward non-system bridges. In MAP-21, this 15 percent bridge funding came from the state’s allocation. In the DRIVE Act, it would come from the local government suballocation. Thus, funds to local governments overall will be reduced from $4.9 billion to $4.6 billion.
 
Local government advocates, including NACO, NLC, Conference of Mayors and T4A have caught on to this reduction and will be working together to increase the STP suballocation to local governments. An amendment is being drafted to reverse the cuts and increase STP for local governments.
 
If this STP amendment fails or is not allowed to be offered, it could lead local governments to oppose the bill. The Senate bill already faces some stiff challenges for other reasons and from different factions, including:

  • General opposition from Tea Party Republicans to transportation investment;
  • Presidential candidates in the Senate promising to hold up the bill to address their pet issues from abortion to the Iran nuclear deal; 
  • Concern over some of the pay-\fors, including revenue from reducing interest rates paid by the Federal Reserve to large banks, selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that is used to prevent energy crises and directing fees from the Transportation Security Administration and customs processing. Some Senators just oppose the pay fors, while others wanted to use these pay fors for their pet bills (ie pending Energy Bill and sequestration relief).
  • Concern over some of the environmental streamlining.

 
DRIVE Act highlights include:

  •  A new Freight Mobility Program will distribute $1.5 billion in FY16 and grow from there. Freight corridors throughout the country will see needed influx in resources. In FY 16, Washington and Oregon would receive $34.2 million and $25.3 million to build important infrastructure projects.
  • A new Major Projects Program will distribute $300 million in FY16 and grow to $450 million in FY21. The new initiative will fund large projects of regional and national significance throughout the country.
  • The bill increases funding for the Transportation Alternatives Program from $800 million to $850 million and gives local governments 100% control over the use of funds. TAP provides funding for trails, bike paths, safe routes to school and other local priorities. 
  • The Surface Transportation Program allocation to local governments is increased from 50% to 55%. However, the overall pot has shrunk, so local governments will actually see a reduction. There are efforts underway to offer amendments to increase local governments share of STP funds.
  • The bill increases the funding that must be spent on projects to maintain and repair bridges off of the National Highway System, as these bridges often struggle to find a reliable funding stream. These city and county owned bridges were neglected under MAP-21. The bill requires that states allocate at least 110% of the funds they allocated to bridges in FY 2014.
  • The bill restores funding for the FTA Bus and Bus Facility grant program and increases transit formula dollars for transit agencies in urban and rural areas.

DRIVE Act: The Little Engine That Might

The recent bridge collapse in California is fueling momentum in Congress to act on a transportation package.

The recent bridge collapse in California is fueling momentum in Congress to act on a transportation package.

The updated DRIVE Act cruised up to the Senate floor yesterday weighing in at 3.25 pounds and 1,030 pages. Ultimately, it ran out of gas shortly after the shiny new bill was driven off the lot.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell gave senators less than an hour to read the bulging bill before voting to proceed. Democrats wanted more time to read the bill, while some Republicans opposed the “pay fors.” Ten Republicans joined every Democrat in opposition to proceeding to the bill and we now await McConnell’s next jump start of the bill. 

While news of our crumbling infrastructure is not new, the recent bridge collapse in California is fueling momentum in Congress to act on a transportation package. Most in Congress believe our country is underinvesting in roads and bridges, but the urgency hasn’t spurred long term action or clever ways to pay for our infrastructure deficit.

The current transportation bill expires July 31 and the Highway Trust Fund is nearly broke. If Congress doesn’t act with at least a short-term extension by July 31, transportation projects around the country will grind to a halt and DOT furloughs will be issued. It’s unlikely Congress will let this happen, but there are a lot of obstacles to quick action on a transportation bill or extension.

The House has already passed an extension to December, along with $8 billion in funding offsets. McConnell doesn’t like that plan and has teamed up with Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer to push for a longer term solution that transportation stakeholders badly crave. McConnell wants to demonstrate the Republican controlled Senate can pass consequential legislation on his watch.

The DRIVE Act would reauthorize federal highway and transit funding at an increased funding level of about 3.3 per per year for six years, from FY 2016 through FY 2021. Highway funding would increase 19 percent over the six years of the bill. Transit funding programs would increase from $10.862 billion in the current year to $11.797 billion in FY 2016 and to $13.26 billion in FY 2021. 

Only three years of funding offsets have been identified. After the third year, additional funds would need to be raised to prevent a shutdown.  The complicated provisions of the bill leave many policymakers asking questions, while other senators are concerned about the pay-fors. 

How Is the Bill Paid For?

The multi-year highway bill includes approximately $47 billion in offsets from other areas of the federal budget to help pay for new highway funding over the next three years. The proposal relies largely on revenue from reducing interest rates paid by the Federal Reserve to large banks, selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and redirecting fees from the Transportation Security Administration and customs processing. The offsets are typical for Congress, they found three years’ worth of funding over a 10-year budget timeline. 

Many Democrats wanted simply to raise the gas tax to cover the cost of a long-term bill. However, nearly all Republicans and President Obama have expressed opposition to raising the tax, even though it hasn’t been raised since 1993.

DRIVE program highlights include:

  • A new Freight Mobility Program will distribute $1.5 billion in FY2016 and grow from there. Freight corridors throughout the country will see a needed influx in resources. In FY2016, Washington and Oregon would receive $34.2 million and $25.3 million to build important infrastructure projects.
  • A new Major Projects Program will distribute $300 million in FY16 and grow to $450 million in FY2021. The new initiative will fund large projects of regional and national significance throughout the country.
  • The bill increases funding for the Transportation Alternatives Program from $800 million to $850 million and gives local governments 100 percent control over the use of funds. TAP provides funding for trails, bike paths, safe routes to school and other local priorities. 
  • The Surface Transportation Program allocation to local governments is increased from 50 to 55 percent. However, the overall pot has shrunk, so local governments will actually see a reduction. There are efforts underway to offer amendments to increase local governments share of STP funds.
  • The bill increases funding that must be spent on projects to maintain and repair bridges off of the National Highway System, as these bridges often struggle to find a reliable funding stream. These city and county owned bridges were neglected under MAP-21. The bill requires that states allocate at least 110 percent of the funds they allocated to bridges in FY2014.
  •  The bill restores funding for the FTA Bus and Bus Facility grant program and increases transit formula dollars for transit agencies in urban and rural areas. 

It’s unclear what’s in store next for the DRIVE Act. The Senate was expected to take up the bill again today, but the bill has yet to make an appearance. If senators move to proceed, there will be a flurry of amendments and likely a rare weekend Senate session to complete the bill.

Even if senators pass the long-term measure, the House could reject the bill and opt for its short-term measure extension.