GOP tax plan

GOP, Dems in Turmoil Over Midterm Voter Pitches

To regain political power in the midterm elections, Democrats need to reconnect with American workers who have gradually lost confidence in the party of the New Deal and the Great Society, according to a veteran Democratic political strategist. Republicans have to find a way to tout their tax plan that is sagging in popularity.

To regain political power in the midterm elections, Democrats need to reconnect with American workers who have gradually lost confidence in the party of the New Deal and the Great Society, according to a veteran Democratic political strategist. Republicans have to find a way to tout their tax plan that is sagging in popularity.

Heading into pivotal midterm elections this fall, Republicans and Democrats are both in turmoil over their value propositions to voters. Republicans may not be able to run on their record and Democrats are still searching for a platform with political traction.

Congressional Republicans planned to campaign based on a popular tax cut. However, the GOP tax cut faces sinking support, including in so-called Trump country as evidenced by a recent special House election in Pennsylvania that a Democrat captured.

Now congressional Republicans have an immigration mess on their hands. Already deeply divided, the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” policy that separated children from their asylum-seeking parents at the border has apparently deepened the divide. House GOP leadership canceled plans last week to vote on a pair of immigration measures until after the November midterm election.

GOP congressmen face another political problem – backlash from their base if they criticize President Trump, as conservative voters seem bent on asserting at the ballot box that it is now the Trump Party, not a big-tent Republican Party.

Democrats aren’t any better off. They have a smoldering debate among progressives and centrists. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been demonized and molded into a rallying cry for conservatives. Trump has pummeled Democrats as obstructionists. There is confusion about whether to attack or ignore Trump and what themes will work in the midterm elections to flip control of the House and not lose ground in the Senate where the GOP holds a slim 51-49 margin.

In steps Jake Sullivan, who has been a senior adviser to President Obama, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, with a keen read on where Democrats stand with voters and how they could earn their way back into power.

Sullivan argues in an essay published in Democracy: A Journal of Ideas that Democrats should realize public opinion is more conservative than liberals might hope on deeply divisive issues such as abortion, guns, immigration and race. Political pay dirt for Democrats, Sullivan says, lies in left-of-center economic issues such as taxation, health care, minimum wage and education funding.

“Just as the Great Depression discredited the ideas of the pre-New Deal conservatives who fought for total laissez-faire outcomes in both the political branches and the courts, so the Great Recession once again laid bare the failure of our government to protect its citizens from unchecked market excess,” Sullivan writes. “There has been a delayed reaction this time around, but people have begun to see more clearly not only the flaws of our public and private institutions that contributed to the financial crisis, but also the decades of rising inequality and income stagnation that came before — and the uneven recovery that followed. Our politics are in the process of adjusting to this new reality.”

In the face of political maps showing a lot of red, Sullivan insists “There’s something profound happening in American politics right now. A tide is moving. The center of gravity is shifting. Democrats have a rare opportunity to set bold goals and meet them. By offering new ideas based on tried and true principles –taking the big, ambitious governing style that used to define our party and our politics and putting it to work to meet the challenges of our time – we can achieve growth and fairness, innovation and equality.” 

He added, “Moments like this don’t come around that often in history. Democrats must seize this one.”

The four pillars of his advice to Democrats are:

  • Recognize that present-day jobs are as or more valuable than future jobs, which demands rethinking the contemporary workplace to ensure health insurance coverage, fair wages, antic-discrimination and the right to unionize.
  • Promote policies that reflect changing family structures with more two wage-earning parents, single mother-led households, college students moving back home and a ballooning older adult population that is living longer.
  • Talk about workers in sectors beyond manufacturing in fields such as health care and the service economy and promote workplace, tax and educational policies that sustain the American Dream, while addressing serious issues like opioid addiction.
  • Build alliances with 21st century entrepreneurial businesses to pursue tax, trade and antitrust policies in a globalized economy that keep America competitive and increase income security for US workers.

Republicans have a clearer litany of their policy views – lower taxes, fewer regulations, anti-abortion, free trade and conservative judges. However, like any party in power, the GOP has to defend what it has done – or not done – as well as it what it stands for.

Sullivan’s prescription for Democrats may be the clearest expression of what Democrats could wield to win the seats in Congress and state legislatures they need to gain back power they have gradually lost in the past decade as worker confidence has waned.

 

So Much Work, So Little Time

The congressional agenda is chock-full. The congressional calendar is rapidly dwindling. Tax cuts, a spending measure and a debt ceiling increase are pending priorities, with a government shutdown looming as a possibility.

The congressional agenda is chock-full. The congressional calendar is rapidly dwindling. Tax cuts, a spending measure and a debt ceiling increase are pending priorities, with a government shutdown looming as a possibility.

With only a dozen or so working days before the holiday break and the end of the year, Congress faces a daunting agenda that keeps growing longer and more challenging.

Based on published schedules, the Senate has 15 and the House 12 working days left in 2017. In that time, GOP congressional leaders want to pass tax-cut legislation and need to take action on a spending and debt ceiling bill to prevent a government shutdown.

Mixed in the politics of all that is the Dreamer’s Act and extension of funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) that expired September 30, which has created a budgetary challenge for states trying to keep the popular insurance in place until Congress acts.

Then there are the series of subplots that fill headlines and color the policies and politics on Capitol Hill:

  • The intensifying investigation into Russian election meddling;
  • The Roy Moore scandal and Senate race in Alabama;
  • Unfolding disclosures about sexual behavior by Members of Congress;
  • An attempt by the Senate to repeal the Obamacare individual health care mandate as part of tax legislation; and
  • The Federal Communication Commission’s decision to end net neutrality.

Lurking in the wings are stalled talks over revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), continuing tensions over North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and the hope for an infrastructure investment package.

Dealing with all that is more like a year’s agenda, not one for a short month.

Egged on by President Trump, Republicans want to deliver tax legislation to the White House before heading home for Christmas. While GOP leaders continue to sell the tax cut as a boon for the middle class, the push to pass it quickly is aimed at satisfying the expectations of Republican donors.

When the Senate returns to work this week, it will try to pass its version of tax legislation under special rules that prevent a Democratic filibuster. It can only lose two Republican votes. It also will vote on the bill under a cloud of criticism from economists across the ideological spectrum who say it will do little for the middle class and compromise the nation’s ability to deal with an economic downturn by sharply increasing the federal budget deficit.

If the Senate passes a tax measure, it then faces a House-Senate conference committee to iron out differences, which could highlight contentious and regionally divisive issues such as home mortgage and state and local tax deductibility.

Even though Republicans are trying to pass their tax legislation without any Democratic support, they need Democratic votes to pass a spending measure and increase the debt ceiling. The tight time frames before the holiday break amplify Democratic leverage. CHIP funding, which provides coverage for 9 million children, is one enticement the GOP is trying to use. The Dreamer’s Act could be another, but it could backfire and drive away some conservative GOP votes.

The troubled Moore Senate campaign to fill the seat formerly held by Jeff Sessions comes at an especially awkward political moment on December 12. If Moore, who faces accusations of sexual misconduct with minors, loses to Democrat Doug Jones, it will make GOP control of the Senate razor thin, which could be a factor if tax legislation gets pushed into next year.

Congress is also getting some pushback on the tax plan from corporations that have become more concerned about Trump objectives in NAFTA negotiations. A fifth round of talks among Canada, Mexico and the United States failed to produce agreement, which leaves open the possibility that Trump may unilaterally pull out of the trade deal. A business coalition led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has lobbied Capitol Hill in opposition to radical changes to NAFTA, warning they could lead to US job losses and ironically lead to more US manufacturing moved offshore.

The special prosecutor investigation into Russian election meddling and possible collusion by the Trump campaign has taken another ominous turn. Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn has broken off contact with the Trump defense team, signaling a possible plea deal that involves cooperating with the special prosecutor on other targets. There have been signs Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller and his team have expanded their scope to include financial dealings by the Trump Organization with Russian oligarchs associated with money laundering.

The FCC decision to end net neutrality has stirred up a wide range of opponents who fear it will hand too much power to telecommunications companies. Supporters downplay that concern, saying it will lead to more investment in digital technology. But this isn’t just a garden-variety policy issue. Net neutrality supporters have taken to social media to voice their concerns, galvanizing many people who ordinarily shun politics. Those activated voters could make a difference in the looming 2018 mid-term election.