DACA

Senate Reaches Bipartisan Deal with Sharp Spending Increases

The US Senate reached a 2-year budget deal that sharply increases defense spending and for a range of health care programs. The deal, which will boost the federal deficit and doesn’t deal protection of Dreamers, still must pass muster in the House and with President Trump, even though it doesn’t appear to provide funding for his border wall

The US Senate reached a 2-year budget deal that sharply increases defense spending and for a range of health care programs. The deal, which will boost the federal deficit and doesn’t deal protection of Dreamers, still must pass muster in the House and with President Trump, even though it doesn’t appear to provide funding for his border wall

[UPDATE: Early on Friday, February 9, the Senate passed a continuing resolution in effect until March 23 that authorizes spending levels contained in the bipartisan Senate budget deal. Later in the morning, the House passed the continuing resolution and President Trump signed it. The temporary government shutdown lasted only a few hours. Federal government employees reported to work as normal.]

 

The Senate reached a bipartisan budget deal that will boost federal spending by $300 million over the next two years and suspend the debt ceiling for one year, but without resolving immigration issues. The House and President Trump still must agree, which is not automatic.

House conservatives voiced concern about increased spending that will push up the federal deficit even further after GOP-backed tax-cut legislation late last year. House Democrats were furious the Senate deal didn’t include protection for Dreamers who may face deportation after Trump’s March 5 deadline. Speaker Paul Ryan said he believes the votes exist in the House to approve the Senate compromise.

There also may be some procedural issues slowing the vote in the Senate that could result in a temporary government shutdown scheduled for midnight tonight. And President Trump has yet to officially sign off on the deal, which doesn’t appear to include money for his border wall.

The biggest spending increase goes for defense – $80 billion in Fiscal Year 2018 and $85 billion in Fiscal Year 2019. Caps on non-defense discretionary spending would increase by $63 billion this year and $68 billion next year. Almost $90 billion is provided for disaster relief. There appears to be a $20 billion down payment on the Trump infrastructure package.

The increases give both political parties plenty to crow about and resolve a nagging budget issue that is a hangover of sequestration that went into effect in 2011.

If the Senate budget deal survives, congressional appropriators are expected to write an omnibus FY 2018 appropriations bill that moves up total spending from $1.065 billion allowed under current law to $1.208 trillion as provided in the Senate budget agreement.

The deal also includes some other significant provisions:

  • A one-year extension of expired tax breaks that were not included in the December 2017 tax reform bill, including the Alternative Fuels Tax Credit.
  • Four additional years of extension of the CHIP program after the six-year extension enacted last month runs out.
  • Two years of renewed funding at around $7 billion for community health centers, $6 billion for mental health treatment and opioid addiction and $2 billion in additional funding for the National Institutes of Health. Notably absent, however, was funding to shore up the Affordable Care Act, which was the concession promised to Maine Senator Susan Collins in return for her vote for the GOP tax cut. The deal does continue to delay any cuts to hospitals that serve a disproportionately high share of low-income patients.
  • Accelerated elimination of the “doughnut” in Medicare in pre-catastrophic care drug coverage and elimination of the controversial Medicare Payment Advisory Board. The limit on Medicare coverage for physical therapy would be permanently repealed.
  • $500 million to the National Health Service Corps and $363 million for the Teaching Health Center Graduate Medical Education program to encourage doctors to practice in underserved areas.
  • Creation of a new Joint Select Committee on Solvency of Multiemployer Pension Plans, to produce legislation fixing the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation by December 2018 with a guarantee that the bill will get a vote in the Senate under “fast track” procedures.
  • Creation of a new Joint Select Committee on Budget and Appropriations Process Reform, to produce legislation fixing the broken congressional budget process by December 2018 with a guarantee that the bill will get a vote in the Senate under “fast track” procedures.

An estimated $100 billion in “pay-fors” were included in the package to mitigate the effect of non-defense spending on the federal deficit. They include:

  • An extension of the portion of Transportation Security Administration aviation security fees that go towards deficit reduction into fiscal 2026 and 2027, estimated to total $1.64 billion in 2026 and $1.68 billion in 2027.
  • Selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
  • Taking money from the Federal Reserve’s surplus fund.
  • Extending sequestration of non-exempt mandatory programs (mostly Medicare) into fiscal 2026 and 2027.

    Joel Rubin is a partner and leader of CFM’s federal affairs team based in Washington, DC. He has worked on Capitol Hill and now represents Pacific Northwest interests in Congress and with federal agencies.

Prospects for Bipartisanship in an Election Year

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said 2018 should be a year of bipartisan compromise, but that may be easier said than done after the GOP-controlled Congress shoved through a massive tax cut at the end of 2017 and ideological differences in the House threaten to blunt deals with Senate Democrats. [Photo Credit: AP/Susan Walsh]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said 2018 should be a year of bipartisan compromise, but that may be easier said than done after the GOP-controlled Congress shoved through a massive tax cut at the end of 2017 and ideological differences in the House threaten to blunt deals with Senate Democrats. [Photo Credit: AP/Susan Walsh]

Will 2018 be the year of congressional bipartisanship or a retreat to political trenches before the November general election? It is a critical question that could determine the shape of spending, immigration, pension protection, defense, foreign policy and border security legislation.

It is also a question of time as the Senate returns to work this week and the House comes back next week.

The next Waterloo date for Congress is January 19 when the current short-term spending measure expires. Reconciliation rules don’t apply, which means whatever legislation emerges must pass the 60-vote cloture hurdle in the Senate. Christmas has passed, so GOP congressional leaders can’t rely on Democratic reluctance to allow a holiday federal government shutdown.

Before the holiday break, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell signaled a need to seek bipartisan approaches in 2018. House Speaker Paul Ryan has focused more on trimming spending on so-called entitlement programs, which is unlikely to attract much bipartisan support. Congressional Democrats can be expected to weigh compromise against electoral advantage.

There is no better example of the political watershed than Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Democrats want a clean bill to secure their place in America and a path to citizenship. President Trump plopped the issue in the lap of Congress with a March 5 deadline as leverage to gain Democratic support for his promised border wall. Congressional Republicans may stop short of the Trump wall, but want fortified border security as part of any deal.

Trump gave Congress until March to reach a compromise. Latino interest groups expressed displeasure at Democratic failure to force the DACA issue in the pre-Christmas spending showdown, which foreshadows a more aggressive stance by Democrats in January negotiations. Conservative Republicans equate protection for children brought to America by their parents illegally as amnesty, which they have pledged to oppose.

There aren’t any obvious silver-bullet issues to inspire bipartisanship. The closest no-brainer issue is continued funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Before heading home for Christmas, Congress ponied up $3 billion to sustain CHIP for three months. Democrats want CHIP to continue while House Republicans appear to view it as a vehicle to dismantle additional parts of the Affordable Care Act.

During the holiday break, Democrats floated a new issue that could be a wrench in the works or a possible bargaining chip. On “Face the Nation,” Michigan Congresswoman Debbie Dingell and New York Congressman Joe Crowley called for government-backed private pension protection. Even though the recent run-up in the stock markets have boosted retirement accounts, Dingell and Crowley argued many Americans remains under water because of the Great Recession and pressure on private pensions continues to mount. The proposed solution involves government securitization of pension benefits, much like protection for savings accounts in banks, through some form of bonding. Democrats figure this issue would especially appeal to middle-class Americans.

Republicans, supported by Trump, want to boost military spending. The price for Democrats is increased social spending – or avoiding cuts in Medicaid. There eventually will be a deal on spending and an increase on the debt ceiling, but the deal that Senate Democrats would support may splinter the GOP majority in the House.

How forceful each side remains could depend on public reaction to the GOP-passed tax-cut legislation. Backers of the $1.5 trillion tax cut are counting on bolstered take-home pay as early as February to start changing American opinion about the legislation, which Democrats branded as heavily benefitting corporations and wealthier taxpayers.

If fatter paychecks turn heads, it may embolden Republicans. If the tax cuts seem insignificant, then Democrats may become more obstinate.

The congressional agenda is chocked full of other issues, including an extension of FISA court orders required to conduct domestic surveillance and additional disaster relief for states and territories hit hard by hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Both offer some glimmer of hope for bipartisan cooperation.

Another possible bipartisan topic is stabilization of health insurance markets. Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins voted for tax-cut legislation on promises by here Republican colleagues to address the issue by agreeing to give insurers as much as $10.5 billion to compensate for coverage for high-cost and poor people. The conservative wing in the House has given that idea a cool reception as it warns about more spending driving up the federal deficit.

On philosophical grounds, the most likely bipartisan target is increased funding on infrastructure. Trump has promised to submit his plan to Congress this month and congressional leaders also have been working on proposals. Again, the pain point may be more spending and a higher deficit. That argument inevitably will revive the debate over the GOP-backed tax cut and whether it starts paying off in 2018.

So Much Work, So Little Time

The congressional agenda is chock-full. The congressional calendar is rapidly dwindling. Tax cuts, a spending measure and a debt ceiling increase are pending priorities, with a government shutdown looming as a possibility.

The congressional agenda is chock-full. The congressional calendar is rapidly dwindling. Tax cuts, a spending measure and a debt ceiling increase are pending priorities, with a government shutdown looming as a possibility.

With only a dozen or so working days before the holiday break and the end of the year, Congress faces a daunting agenda that keeps growing longer and more challenging.

Based on published schedules, the Senate has 15 and the House 12 working days left in 2017. In that time, GOP congressional leaders want to pass tax-cut legislation and need to take action on a spending and debt ceiling bill to prevent a government shutdown.

Mixed in the politics of all that is the Dreamer’s Act and extension of funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) that expired September 30, which has created a budgetary challenge for states trying to keep the popular insurance in place until Congress acts.

Then there are the series of subplots that fill headlines and color the policies and politics on Capitol Hill:

  • The intensifying investigation into Russian election meddling;
  • The Roy Moore scandal and Senate race in Alabama;
  • Unfolding disclosures about sexual behavior by Members of Congress;
  • An attempt by the Senate to repeal the Obamacare individual health care mandate as part of tax legislation; and
  • The Federal Communication Commission’s decision to end net neutrality.

Lurking in the wings are stalled talks over revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), continuing tensions over North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and the hope for an infrastructure investment package.

Dealing with all that is more like a year’s agenda, not one for a short month.

Egged on by President Trump, Republicans want to deliver tax legislation to the White House before heading home for Christmas. While GOP leaders continue to sell the tax cut as a boon for the middle class, the push to pass it quickly is aimed at satisfying the expectations of Republican donors.

When the Senate returns to work this week, it will try to pass its version of tax legislation under special rules that prevent a Democratic filibuster. It can only lose two Republican votes. It also will vote on the bill under a cloud of criticism from economists across the ideological spectrum who say it will do little for the middle class and compromise the nation’s ability to deal with an economic downturn by sharply increasing the federal budget deficit.

If the Senate passes a tax measure, it then faces a House-Senate conference committee to iron out differences, which could highlight contentious and regionally divisive issues such as home mortgage and state and local tax deductibility.

Even though Republicans are trying to pass their tax legislation without any Democratic support, they need Democratic votes to pass a spending measure and increase the debt ceiling. The tight time frames before the holiday break amplify Democratic leverage. CHIP funding, which provides coverage for 9 million children, is one enticement the GOP is trying to use. The Dreamer’s Act could be another, but it could backfire and drive away some conservative GOP votes.

The troubled Moore Senate campaign to fill the seat formerly held by Jeff Sessions comes at an especially awkward political moment on December 12. If Moore, who faces accusations of sexual misconduct with minors, loses to Democrat Doug Jones, it will make GOP control of the Senate razor thin, which could be a factor if tax legislation gets pushed into next year.

Congress is also getting some pushback on the tax plan from corporations that have become more concerned about Trump objectives in NAFTA negotiations. A fifth round of talks among Canada, Mexico and the United States failed to produce agreement, which leaves open the possibility that Trump may unilaterally pull out of the trade deal. A business coalition led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has lobbied Capitol Hill in opposition to radical changes to NAFTA, warning they could lead to US job losses and ironically lead to more US manufacturing moved offshore.

The special prosecutor investigation into Russian election meddling and possible collusion by the Trump campaign has taken another ominous turn. Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn has broken off contact with the Trump defense team, signaling a possible plea deal that involves cooperating with the special prosecutor on other targets. There have been signs Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller and his team have expanded their scope to include financial dealings by the Trump Organization with Russian oligarchs associated with money laundering.

The FCC decision to end net neutrality has stirred up a wide range of opponents who fear it will hand too much power to telecommunications companies. Supporters downplay that concern, saying it will lead to more investment in digital technology. But this isn’t just a garden-variety policy issue. Net neutrality supporters have taken to social media to voice their concerns, galvanizing many people who ordinarily shun politics. Those activated voters could make a difference in the looming 2018 mid-term election.