The Curiously Missing Debate on the US Economy

President Trump focuses on immigration and tariffs and only occasionally cites strong US economic performance. Democratic presidential candidates are trying to win over primary voters by discussing issues such as universal health care, college debt and social justice. The result is a missing debate on the state and future of the US economy, which polls show is the top priority of a majority of voters.

President Trump focuses on immigration and tariffs and only occasionally cites strong US economic performance. Democratic presidential candidates are trying to win over primary voters by discussing issues such as universal health care, college debt and social justice. The result is a missing debate on the state and future of the US economy, which polls show is the top priority of a majority of voters.

A surging stock market, continued job creation and historically low unemployment have led to rising levels of public approval of Donald Trump in the polls. 

On the flip side, soaring federal budget deficits, protracted trade wars affecting industrial and agricultural sectors and tariffs threatening higher consumer prices are posting warning signs of an impending downward economic cycle, perhaps just before the 2020 election. 

Despite the stakes, bread-and-butter economic policy has taken a decidedly back seat in political debates, even as polling shows the economy remains the top priority of voters. 

Skillfully or impulsively, President Trump focuses on immigration, ‘creeping socialism’ and denigrating Democrats, while only occasionally praising the economy he’s overseen for 2½ years. Democratic presidential candidates, many seeking to curry favor with the increasingly restive progressive wing of the party, talk about health care, immigration reform, college debt, wealth taxes, climate change, social justice and Trump. 

Democrats also campaign in the shadow of the Mueller report and growing calls to impeach Trump. At times it seems as if Trump and his media allies egg on articles of impeachment, which face an uncertain fate in the Democratic House, but certain death in the Republican Senate. 

Absent in most Democratic stumping is any serious, sustained criticism of Trump economic policy. If criticism was to occur, this is what it might look like: 

Budget Deficit: According to the Treasury Department, the federal budget deficit ballooned 77 percent in the first four months of 2019 to $310 billion, up from $176 billion during the same period a year earlier. That period included the largest single month deficit. One reason for the larger deficits was a sharp drop in tax revenue, attributed to the Trump tax cuts. Meanwhile, federal spending has increased 9 percent, including a 12 percent hike in military spending and a 16 percent rise in Medicare outlays.

The Congressional Budget Office has projected a $900 billion deficit this fiscal year. The Office of Management and Budget, which is overseen by the Trump administration, projects the deficit will reach nearly $1.1 trillion – and keep rising through the 2020 fiscal year.

The Trump administration has not pushed very hard for federal spending reductions, settling instead for sending Congress a budget with cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which are political non-starters.

Trump has seemingly walked away from his promise of a major infrastructure investment plan. His own advisers have warned he cannot boost military spending and build new roads and bridges at the same time, especially when congressional Republicans appear unwilling to vote for the taxes to pay for upgraded infrastructure.

The political punch: The economy is cruising along, but only because it is fueled by the equivalent of credit card debt on steroids. The tax cuts and spending spree have effectively ruled out long-term investments in roads and bridges. 

Trade Wars: True to his campaign promise, Trump has upset the trade apple cart by imposing tariffs, first on steel and aluminum, then more generally, with a special gusto for Chinese imports. Trump also has selectively imposed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. His trade team succeeded last year in negotiating an updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement, but it still hasn’t been approved by Congress.

The Congressional Budget Office shares its data about federal deficits, budget and revenue projections and marginal tax rates, as well as statistical information about many specific federal programs. If you want to be the smartest person in the room when it comes to the economy, check this out:  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918 .

The Congressional Budget Office shares its data about federal deficits, budget and revenue projections and marginal tax rates, as well as statistical information about many specific federal programs. If you want to be the smartest person in the room when it comes to the economy, check this out: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.

Trump claims his tariffs have revived the US steel and aluminum industries and produced substantial revenue. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation confirms tariff revenue reached $70 billion by the end of May 2019, while reducing the US Gross Domestic Product by $50 billion, lowering wages by .13 percent and resulting in a loss of nearly 156,000 American jobs. 

The Tax Foundation also computed the impact of tariffs Trump threatened to impose against China, automobiles and Mexican products. Estimated revenues would exceed $154 billion at a cost of $112 billion in lost GDP, .3 percent decline in wages and loss of nearly 350,000 US jobs.

Then there are retaliatory tariffs by the European Union, India, Turkey, Mexico, Canada and Russia. The US treasury receives no revenue from these tariffs, but lost GDP from them tops $21 billion, wages decline .05 percent and some 67,000 jobs disappear. 

“If all tariffs announced thus far were fully imposed, US GDP would fall by 0.74 percent ($184.07 billion) in the long run, effectively offsetting about 44 percent of the long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Wages would fall by 0.48 percent and employment would fall 570,591,” according to the Tax Foundation. 

The tariffs have worked a particular hardship on American farmers who have seen foreign markets evaporate, income nosedive and price increases for new equipment. The Trump administration conceded the impact on farmers, won approval for a $12 billion bailout and is seeking another $16 billion to aid farmers. Adding injury to insult, the major beneficiaries of the first bailout flowed to larger corporate farms, not family farms and “patriot farmers.”

The political punch: Tariffs are taxing Americans, raising prices, lowering wages, hurting farmers, losing jobs and posing a threat to continued economic growth. And, they haven’t resulted, at least so far, in great trade deals either.

Looming Downturn: Signs are emerging that an economic downturn may be on the horizon. Economists warn an escalating trade war combined with slowing growth in China and internationally could tip the economy into recession.

There also are troubling indicators.

  • Historically and ironically, recessions occur just when retail sales, industrial production and employment peak, as they have. Household wealth and income also peak just before a downturn.

  • Another historical indicator of recession is when interest rates on long-term bonds are lower than interest rates for short-term bonds for three continuous months, as just happened. This isn’t just a US phenomenon; it is occurring in bond markets around the world. 

Sensing the possibility of a declining US economy heading into an election, Trump has been hectoring Jerome Powell, the man he chose to head the Federal Reserve Board, to cut interest rates. After resisting such action, Powell in congressional testimony last week hinted an interest rate cut may be in the offing as early as this month. 

Powell told Congress, “Based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the US economic outlook.”

The stock market was ecstatic and hit new record highs. Critics warned an interest rate cut now will limit the Fed’s ability to combat a recession when it inevitably occurs.

The political punch: With increased deficit spending, continuing tariffs and a demand for lower interest rates, the administration is playing with fire, dousing a fire and trying to light a fire all at once.

You heard it here, even if you won’t hear anywhere else.

 

WinRed Seeks to Mimic ActBlue Online Fundraising Success

Republicans play catch-up to successful Democratic online grassroots fundraising with the launch of WinRed, an unabashed, but for-profit imitation of ActBlue.

Republicans play catch-up to successful Democratic online grassroots fundraising with the launch of WinRed, an unabashed, but for-profit imitation of ActBlue.

Voters look at headlines, one-liners and policy positions. Political pros follow the money.

That’s why the biggest news of the campaign season, at least in the eyes of political pros, is WinRed, the belated Republican response to the highly successful ActBlue online fundraising platform.

ActBlue launched in 2004 and claims on its website to have raised more than $3.5 billion for Democratic candidates. In the 2018 midterm elections, ActBlue helped Democratic House and Senate candidate outraise their Republican counterparts by more than two to one because of tens of thousands small contributions.

WinRed, which is backed by the Trump re-election campaign, congressional leaders and top GOP committees, was launched in June and is a partnership between a nonprofit clearinghouse of Republican donors and a for-profit payment-processing firm.

In the last decade, there have been several unsuccessful GOP attempts to replicate WinRed. They faltered because Republican candidates tend to count mostly on large donors and were skeptical of relying on small-dollar donors. There also are competing for-profit fundraising platforms.

ActBlue operates as a nonprofit that is separate from the Democratic Party. In the 2016 presidential election, Bernie Sanders relied on the fundraising platform to generate $200 million from grassroots donors. His example caused many Democratic candidates to hop onboard in the 2018 midterm election.

NPR quoted Republican political strategist Josh Holmes in assessing ActBlue’s success. Democrats “built an ecosystem that helped everybody…they could fundraise off of each other and they could come to a centralized platform that ultimately lifted every single boat.”

The WinRed backers make no secret they are imitating ActBlue’s business model to counter what Trump calls the “Democratic money machine.” However, veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove warns that WinRed success will require processing fees from fundraising donations to be “reinvested in enhancements, algorithms and list building, rather than big consulting fees and salaries." 

With the advent of the internet, grassroots fundraising has become a viable alternative to relying on big donors and political action committees. Several 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls have staked their campaigns on pledges to accept only small-donor contributions.

An analysis in 2018 of trends by FiveThirtyEight and the Center for Public Integrity show that platforms like ActBlue make it easier and more common for interstate campaign contributions. For example, the groups reported, “Since the beginning of 2017, donors in states Clinton won have given $157 million to support House and Senate candidates running in states Trump won. That’s more than five times the amount of cash flowing from Trump states to Clinton states.”

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Momentous Week in Washington Touches on Core National Values

The Supreme Court ruled on gerrymandering and the Census citizenship question, Congress debated emergency border funding and set a date for testimony by former Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller, Trump flew to Japan for a G20 summit and Democratic presidential candidates debated in Miami. It was a pretty momentous week.

The Supreme Court ruled on gerrymandering and the Census citizenship question, Congress debated emergency border funding and set a date for testimony by former Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller, Trump flew to Japan for a G20 summit and Democratic presidential candidates debated in Miami. It was a pretty momentous week.

This has proven to be a momentous week in Washington, DC that touched on the nation’s core institutions and values and how they interrelate.

The Supreme Court, in separate 5-4 rulings, left untouched partisan-tinged congressional district gerrymandering and blocked the Trump administration’s attempt to place on a question about citizenship on the 2020 Census.

The high court’s majority said the US Constitution doesn’t bar politically influenced gerrymandering or allocate authority to the court to police it. In an impassioned dissent, the minority said the ruling is setback for democratic values.

Speaking for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said the Trump administration failed to make a persuasive argument that the citizenship question is needed to help enforce the Voting Rights Act. "If judicial review is to be more than an empty ritual, it must demand something better than the explanation offered for the action taken in this case," Roberts wrote. The Census Bureau has said it wants to start printing questionnaires next Monday. Calling the ruling “ridiculous,” Trump indicated he would try to delay the Census “for as long as it takes.”

Meanwhile, Congress struggled to reach bipartisan agreement on an emergency funding measure to address border migration issues before the July 4 recess. The Democratically controlled House and the Republican controlled Senate passed separate versions this week. Among the differences between the two bills is whether there will be specific directions on how the $4.5 billion can be spent. President Trump has threatened to veto the House version. 

The picture of the drowned bodies of Salvadoran migrant Oscar Alberto Martínez Ramírez and his nearly 2-year-old daughter Valeria lie on the bank of the Rio Grande shocked the nation and accentuated calls for actions to address the humanitarian crisis on the border. (Photo Credit: Julia Le Duc/AP)

The picture of the drowned bodies of Salvadoran migrant Oscar Alberto Martínez Ramírez and his nearly 2-year-old daughter Valeria lie on the bank of the Rio Grande shocked the nation and accentuated calls for actions to address the humanitarian crisis on the border. (Photo Credit: Julia Le Duc/AP)

Republicans and Democrats acknowledge there is a humanitarian crisis on the US-Mexico border, punctuated by the widely circulated photograph of a Salvadoran father and his young daughter clutching his neck who drowned in the Rio Grande trying to enter the United States without going through a port of entry.

The uproar caused by the photo and continuing coverage of child migrant holding facilities prompted John Sanders, acting head of US Customs and Border Patrol, to resign. Tellingly, he submitted his resignation to the acting head of Homeland Security.

As Trump flew to Japan for a G20 meeting on Wednesday, Democratic candidates sparred in Miami in the first of two debates in the 2020 presidential election. They talked about health care reform, immigration policy, climate change and economic policy. Trump, who watched the first night’s debate on Air Force One, called it boring as the first 10 candidates staked out largely progressive agendas that included moving away from private health insurance and increasing taxes on wealthy Americans.

The second set of hopefuls, which includes frontrunners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, will debate Thursday night.

In Japan, Trump is expected to meet on the sidelines with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. His conversation with Xi will likely center on an escalating trade war that is taking its toll on both countries’ bottom lines. Trump snarled at reporters who asked what he will discuss with Putin, telling them it was “none of your business.” Heightened tensions in Iran and Russian military involvement in Venezuela are two probable topics.

Ahead of the summit, Trump lashed out at India, Japan and Germany over trade policy and “security freeloaders.” Trump is expected once again to object to any joint statement at the summit that references the Paris Climate Accord, which will further strain US-French relations. 

Congressional Democrats announced former Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller will testify publicly July 17 before the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees. That suggests the two hearings will sequentially deal with Trump’s potential obstruction of justice and Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election..

Questioning of Mueller is virtually certain to zero in on testimony provided to his investigation under oath by White House officials who have been barred from testifying in Congress by Trump’s attorneys. The interrogation could prove pivotal to a decision by House Democratic leaders to draw up articles of impeachment.

Another fight is brewing over foreign policy. Democrats insist Trump needs a congressional declaration of war before launching any military action in Iran. Trump, supported by Senate GOP leaders, says he doesn’t.

A bipartisan resolution calling on the Trump administration to suspend an $8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia won’t stop the deal, according to Trump officials.

Under the radar, former Trump Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been testifying in private to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. A transcript of his testimony released this week included Tillerson’s claim that Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner was in contact with world leaders without coordination with the State Department, often leaving him out of the loop on emerging policies. 

“Tillerson also described the challenge of briefing a president who does not read briefing papers and often got distracted by peripheral topics, noting he had to keep his message short and focus on a single topic,” according to a report in The Washington Post.

 

 

Oregonians to Play Key Role in Congressional USMCA Review

Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer and Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici will play pivotal roles on drug pricing and environmental issues as part of the House review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement negotiated by the Trump administration.

Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer and Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici will play pivotal roles on drug pricing and environmental issues as part of the House review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement negotiated by the Trump administration.

Next to immigration, US trade policy is one of the top priorities of President Trump. Winning congressional approval of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), which his administration negotiated, is a key plank of Trump’s 2020 presidential election agenda.

House Democrats, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are the major obstacle for Trump’s ambition. Pelosi took steps this week to begin negotiations with Trump’s trade advisers and she put two members of the Oregon congressional delegation in pivotal leadership positions. She also signaled support for a labor enforcement proposal championed by Oregon Senator Ron Wyden.

Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer will co-chair a team focused on drug pricing, while Oregon Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici will co-chair the team examining environmental issues.

Pelosi hasn’t committed to a House floor vote on the USMCA until changes are made, which would require further negotiations with Mexico and Canada. Without House Democratic votes, the trade deal cannot move. Trump has indicated he would like USMCA approved before Congress adjourns for its August recess. Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass, expressed hope that negotiations with House work groups could wrap up in as little as 30 days. 

The delicate negotiations come in the shadow of Trump’s threats to impose escalating tariffs on all Mexican exports to the United States if the country doesn’t do more to stem the flow of migrants from Central America. Trump pulled back from imposing the tariffs after what appears to be a provisional deal was struck with Mexican leaders. He also has pulled back tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Stalemated negotiations and a continuing trade war with China also muddy the congressional water for USMCA. Even in its current form, the USMCA isn’t a slam dunk to pass the legislatures in Mexico and Canada.

The USMCA is effectively an update of NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement), including provisions relating to the digital economy that didn’t exist a quarter century ago. During his presidential campaign and early in his term, Trump threatened to talk away from NAFTA. However, strong business opposition dissuaded that drastic move, which would have disrupted supply chains of US manufacturing and imperiled US agricultural markets in Mexico and Canada.

Since the USMCA was unveiled last fall, congressional Democrats and US labor leaders signaled disappointment with enforcement procedures for labor provisions aimed at closing the pay gap between Mexican and US manufacturing workers. Wyden and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown have proposed tougher enforcement provisions. A bipartisan, bicameral delegation of congressional trade staffers returned from a fact-finding mission in Mexico with suggestions for beefing up enforcement. They include new ways to enforce labor provisions auditing 700,000 collective bargaining agreements in Mexico, which could take years to complete.

Provisions related to drugs and environmental issues are other areas that Democrats want to bolster in the USMCA and which Blumenauer and Bonamici will influence.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and business groups representing major US exporters are lobbying for approval now. Influential Congresswoman Debbie Dingell, D-Mich, told Bloomberg News, “I talked to Ambassador Lighthizer and everyone understands the things that need to be fixed. There are a number of us who want to get a trade bill. We need a new NAFTA. People are working toward a good bill.”

 

Congressional Appropriations in Full Swing, Sort Of, As Deadlines Loom

Fiscal deadlines loom again and the congressional appropriations process is moving ahead as the House prepares to vote on 12 measures that defy Trump cuts and include spending increases. The Senate is further behind and no time line is set for a vote to raise the debt limit.

Fiscal deadlines loom again and the congressional appropriations process is moving ahead as the House prepares to vote on 12 measures that defy Trump cuts and include spending increases. The Senate is further behind and no time line is set for a vote to raise the debt limit.

As fiscal deadlines loom, the appropriations process is now in full swing – at least in the House of Representatives.

The end of the current fiscal year is rapidly approaching and lawmakers are scrambling to avoid a breakdown in the appropriations process by reaching an agreement on topline spending levels for the next two years and to raise the debt ceiling.  

House appropriators have approved all 12 annual spending bills, with House leaders aiming to pass them out of the full chamber by the end of June. As expected, House spending legislation largely rebukes the Trump Administration’s proposed cuts and instead outlines large spending increases across the federal government. 

To speed up passage, House Democrats were planning to bundle five fiscal 2020 spending bills into a massive package for floor consideration this week. However, that package lost a leg when the Legislative Branch measure was dropped after a disagreement over a provision to raise lawmaker salaries. The House began debate today on the revised four bill package that combines the fiscal 2020 measures for Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Energy-Water, and State-Foreign Operations.

The bundling decision underscored a determination by House Democratic leaders to avoid another breakdown in the appropriations process and allow enough time for negotiations with the Senate before the new fiscal year begins October 1. Just as Republicans did last year, the strategy includes combining the two biggest annual spending bills – Defense and Labor-HHS-Education. Congress was able to get those two bills, along with three others, signed into law last year before the start of fiscal 2019. 

But the strategy is hardly a cure-all. A dispute over funding for the border wall last year brought work on other spending bills to a halt and led to the longest partial government shutdown in history. And topline funding levels finalized in the ongoing bipartisan budget negotiations are unlikely to mirror the priorities of House Democrats. 

Without a bicameral budget agreement in place yet, Senate appropriators have yet to mark up any of their spending bills for fiscal 2020. Bipartisan negotiations to set funding levels for fiscal years 2020 and 2021 have stalled primarily over disagreement on the level of domestic spending and whether new spending will be offset by new revenues or cuts elsewhere. An agreement to raise spending limits is necessary to avoid severe cuts to both defense and non-defense discretionary spending imposed by a 2011 deficit reduction law.

Senate Republican leaders met Wednesday with the White House in hopes to solidify the party’s spending strategy, but early reports suggest no agreement was reached. Part of that strategy includes deciding whether or not to couple raising the debt limit with must-pass spending legislation. The deadline to lift or suspend the debt limit is fluid, but the Treasury’s borrowing authority can likely last through October before a default.

The bottom line: A breakthrough will need to happen soon to avoid a shutdown or stopgap spending resolution come October. There are just 21 legislative days scheduled before the August recess. After which lawmakers will return to Washington with only 13 scheduled legislative days before the end of the fiscal year on September 30.

 

 

Northwest Congressional Delegation Employs Twitter, Too

President Donald Trump communicates to his political base via Twitter and so do many Members of Congress, including the Pacific Northwest delegation. Issues they tweet about range from orca protection, affordable housing, drug interdiction, family separation at the border and reproductive rights.

President Donald Trump communicates to his political base via Twitter and so do many Members of Congress, including the Pacific Northwest delegation. Issues they tweet about range from orca protection, affordable housing, drug interdiction, family separation at the border and reproductive rights.

President Trump communicates directly with his base via Twitter. So do Members of Congress. Here is a sampler of recent Pacific Northwest congressional member tweets, reflecting the breadth of issues they track and attempt to impact:

  • Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer (@repblumenauer) tweeted his support for the 21 young people challenging the Trump administration in court to protect the environment in light of climate change. “Anyone who is still a climate denier or thinks there’s no hope in saving our planet should read about the Juliana v. U.S. case,” the Portland Democrat said. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals is hearing the case this week to decide whether to allow it to go to trial. Two previous court rulings okayed moving ahead.

  • Oregon Congressman Peter DeFazio (@RepPeterDeFazio), who chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said investing in the Coast Guard will result in more drug interdiction than spending billions of dollars on a border wall. "An investment in assets for the Coast Guard – both personnel and equipment – would be a heck of a lot better than a static wall that people can go around, under or through," the Oregon Democrat said at a congressional hearing. DeFazio’s comment was posted on Twitter by OPB political writer Jeff Mapes. 

  • Washington Senator Patty Murray (@PattyMurray) tweeted in response to news reports of botched family reunifications art at the US-Mexican border that resulted in long delays and children stuck in vans. “First cages, now vans. This is truly shameful and I will keep fighting to make sure President Trump and his administration are held accountable for this abuse.”

  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley (@SenJeffMerkley) tweeted, “It’s time for Congress to pass the bipartisan Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, and the Trump administration to stop ignoring the ethnic cleansing of China’s Muslim community. The US needs to sanction the officials responsible for these heinous abuses.” 

  • Oregon Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici (@RepBonamici) is using her Twitter feed this week to promote #WorldOceansDay and the need to protect oceanic resources. She is co-chair of the House Oceans Caucus and her congressional district includes the North Oregon Coast. 

  • Washington Congressman Denny Heck (@RepDennyHeck) noted a resolution he introduced to declare June National Orca Protection Month. “There is cause for hope this year,” Heck tweeted. “But hope alone won’t save the Southern Resident killer whales.” 

  • Oregon Congressman Greg Walden (@repgregwalden) marked the celebration of life for Bob Maxwell, 98, a US Army combat solder in World War II who was awarded the Medal of Honor for his heroism in France. Maxwell, who lived in Bend, grew up as a Quaker, but declined classification as a conscientious objector when he was drafted in 1941. He participated in the Allied military campaign in North Africa and was part of the invasion force in Salerno, which earned him a Silver Star. Walden tweeted, “He will forever be cherished in the country that he sacrificed so much to protect, and in the hearts of everyone he interacted with, especially the community in central Oregon.” 

  • Washington Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (@RepJayapal) tweeted, “Today, I became the FIRST South Asian American woman to preside over the US House of Representatives. Beyond proud to serve in the most diverse Congress in our nation’s history and to hold the gavel today.”

  • Washington Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (@cathymcmorris) tweeted, “Socialism and human rights do not co-exist.” Her comment came in a story about Rodgers servings as one of two elected lawmakers representing Congress at the United Nations.

  • Oregon Senator Ron Wyden (@RonWyden) tweeted, “Housing is a right, not a privilege. But right now, some families face an impossible choice of paying rent and buying food. The affordable housing crisis in my home state and others demands action to ensure every American has a roof over their head. #OurHomesOurVoices.” His tweet coincided with National Housing Week of Action from May 30-June 5.

  • Washington Senator Maria Cantwell (@SenatorCantwell) used her Twitter feed to announce cosponsoring the Women’s Health Protection Act, which she said, “guarantees a woman’s right to choose nationwide, free from medically-unnecessary restrictions that interfere with a patient’s individual choice or the provider-patient relationship. #StopTheBans

  • Washington Congressman Kim Schrier (@DrKimSchrier) tweeted, “So-called heartbeat bills have no basis in science, and are a cruel attempt to control women’s bodies. I’m proud to stand with @DrLeanaWen and @PPFA to #stopthebans.” Schrier is a pediatrician and was elected to Congress from a suburban Washington House district in 2018.

 

Congress Nears Approval of Bipartisan Retirement Savings Legislation

Congress is on the verge of approving bipartisan legislation to make employer-sponsored retirement saving plans more attractive to small businesses. The legislation, which passed the House last week, has the strong support of the financial service industry and is in response to stunning data showing many Americans have little to no retirement savings. It also is a response to a growing number of state-sponsored retirement savings plans such as OregonSaves.

Congress is on the verge of approving bipartisan legislation to make employer-sponsored retirement saving plans more attractive to small businesses. The legislation, which passed the House last week, has the strong support of the financial service industry and is in response to stunning data showing many Americans have little to no retirement savings. It also is a response to a growing number of state-sponsored retirement savings plans such as OregonSaves.

Congress is on the verge of approving significant and bipartisan retirement savings legislation. The House passed its version last week by a 417-3 margin. The Senate is expected to act on its version in the next few weeks. A reconciled measure should pass and go to the White House by year’s end.

The SECURE Act in the House and the RESA Act in the Senate aim to make employer-sponsored retirement savings plans more attractive. The congressional bills, which enjoy broad financial industry and small business support, are in many ways a response to state-sponsored retirement savings plans such as OregonSaves.

The SECURE Act provides incentives for small businesses to set up their own 401(k) plans or join other businesses in multiple-employer plans (MEPs). It also increases opportunities for workers to save through automatic enrollment and escalation, access to plans by long-term part-time workers and portability of accounts. The employee features roughly parallel the key selling points of state-sponsored retirement saving plans.

Additional provisions would raise the age to 72 when savers must take minimum required distributions from their 401(k) accounts, prohibit distribution plan loans by credit card and allow withdrawals of up to $10,000 to repay student loans and up to $5,000 to cover adoption-related expenses.

There are numerous types of retirement savings plans, with a mix of advantages and drawbacks. Nerdwallet offers a review of options.  https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/best-retirement-plans-for-you/

There are numerous types of retirement savings plans, with a mix of advantages and drawbacks. Nerdwallet offers a review of options. https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/best-retirement-plans-for-you/

There was minor grumbling among Republicans during the House floor debate about a committee amendment that disallowed plan withdrawals to pay for K-12 school tuition, including at private and religious schools.

The SECURE Act ventures into the territory of offering in-plan investment vehicles such as annuities by creating a safe harbor for employer liability in the selection of an annuity provider. In-plan annuities also would be portable.

Critics of state-sponsored retirement savings plans have complained about competition with private-sector plan options. Congressional legislation will provide useful sales tools to financial advisers, especially in marketing to small businesses.

However, removing regulatory and liability obstacles may not change employer resistance to assuming the role of a retirement savings plan fiduciary. They may be content with a well-run government-savings plan that can provide easy access for employees and limited responsibilities for them. 

The rise of government-sponsored retirement savings plans and bipartisan congressional action to make employer-sponsored plans more viable for small businesses are reflections of shared concern about the existing and projected number of Americans who will enter retirement with few financial resources. 

Data indicates one quarter of adults have no retirement savings and one third of Baby Boomers have between nothing and $25,000 tucked away for retirement. Older adults are avoiding medical care because they lack money to pay for it.

 

Medicare-for-All Debate Reflects Voter Interest in Health Care

Health care was a major issue in the 2018 midterm elections and promises to be center stage in the upcoming 2020 presidential election, as reflected by growing support for concepts behind Medicare-for-All legislation.

Health care was a major issue in the 2018 midterm elections and promises to be center stage in the upcoming 2020 presidential election, as reflected by growing support for concepts behind Medicare-for-All legislation.

Medicare-for-All has become a campaign battle cry, even though what it actually means is far from clear.

Senator Bernie Sanders made radical health care reform a top-rung political priority in his 2016 presidential bid. Sanders is running for president again and now has a lot of company in calling for a major health care insurance overhaul.

Senator Bernie Sanders made radical health care reform a top-rung political priority in his 2016 presidential bid. Sanders is running for president again and now has a lot of company in calling for a major health care insurance overhaul.

First off, the Medicare-for-All version espoused by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders isn’t actually an extension of Medicare, which now covers 50 million Americans, but would be phased out over four years. His bill contains provisions, such as coverage for long-term care, that aren’t covered now by the landmark health insurance plan created in 1965. Sanders is short on details of how to pay for more robust and costly benefits.

Most advocates of “Medicare-for-All” are expressing support for a single-payer system under which the federal government would assume the role of a giant, publicly funded health insurer. Sanders and others want to see expanded coverage for current Medicare enrollees as well as universal coverage. An enlarged pool of patients under a Medicare-for-All system would give government officials even more leverage to negotiate lower and more consistent pricing for medical services and prescription drugs.

Elimination of all private insurance, including insurance policies provided through employers, has been branded as “socialism” by Medicare-for-All opponents. For context, opponents said the same thing about Medicare.

Some Medicare-for-All proponents would like to see an expansion of Medicare eligibility and benefits, but not necessarily elimination of all private insurance, which provides coverage for 150 million American workers and their families.

Democrats who pushed through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 made a similar political calculation, though they stopped short of including a “public option” that would have provided a government-sponsored health insurance plan. Instead, they opted for expanding Medicaid eligibility on a cost-sharing basis with states.

Some present-day Democrats, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who steered the ACA through Congress earlier this decade, still prefer an incremental approach as the logical and politically achievable next step towards universal health insurance. That might involve increased federal funding for Medicaid expansion, restoration of the mandate for everyone to have health insurance coverage or creation of some form of reinsurance pool to smooth out the cost of high-cost patients.

These variations, combined with 23 Democratic presidential candidates running around the country talking about health care while attempting to differentiate themselves from the herd, have created understandable confusion among voters. That confusion is compounded by continuing efforts by the Trump administration to take the ACA (Obamacare) off the books.

What’s clear is that some provisions of the ACA are very popular, notably preventing people with pre-existing conditions, often chronic illnesses or cancer survivors, from being denied affordable health insurance coverage. That has created a conundrum for congressional Republicans who tried unsuccessfully to repeal and replace Obamacare. Republicans express support for retain the pre-existing condition provision, yet they haven’t successfully landed on a larger platform to address health insurance access – and rising health care costs.

Beyond the debate over Medicare-for-All, health care in America is confusing. There are multiple public players (Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Health Care, Indian Health Service, public health clinics, hospitals affiliated with public universities, public mental health clinics and public school clinics) and private players (for-profit corporations, nonprofit organizations, medical practices, medical laboratories, hospitals affiliated with private universities and integrated health care systems). 

The divide between health insurance and health care delivery is a blurred line. Many private health insurance policies come with their own networks that limit choice of medical providers.

Adding to this dizzying picture are soaring drug prices, with their own cast of characters that include pharmaceutical companies, pharmacy benefit managers, self-insured corporations, foreign-based internet retail outlets and prescription drug patent attorneys.

The end result is a health care system that is costly, suffers from a lack of coordination and isn’t equitable. One report concluded, “Disparities in access to services signal the need to expand insurance to cover the uninsured and to ensure that all Americans have an accessible medical home.” 

Oregon has pioneered approaches to health care that respond to broader criticisms of the US system, or lack of a “system.” Under a federal waiver, Oregon has promoted increased in-home care for older adults and physically disabled persons that enables independent living and avoids more expensive institutional care. Oregon was among the first states to expand Medicaid eligibility, as permitted under the ACA, and has steadfastly defended that expansion despite rising costs.

Former Governor John Kitzhaber implemented coordinated care organizations serving low-income Oregonians to “bend the cost curve” through innovation and coordination. Since leaving office, Kitzhaber has pushed for investing to redress “social determinants” of health such as a lack of proper nutrition and early childhood education. Health care systems are striving to integrate physical and behavioral care to improve outcomes.

The Washington Legislature enacted this year a first-in-the-nation state-sponsored long-term care social insurance program. Under the program, Washington residents will pay 58 cents on every $100 of income, with the revenue flowing into a Long-Term Care Trust. Residents who pay into the fund for 10 years (three if a catastrophic disabling event) will be entitled to receive $100 a day up to a lifetime cap of $36,500. The money can be used for in-home care, installation of accessibility ramps, home food deliveries or transportation. The payroll tax is projected to generate $1 billion per year.

For many health care observers, actions such as Oregon’s and Washington’s are akin to bailing water out of a sinking boat. They call for a broader, more holistic approach to reform. That isn’t the same as calling for Medicare-for-All, which remains somewhere on the political spectrum between an aspiration and an abstraction.

What seems inevitable is that Americans have grown restive with gridlock as health care out-of-pocket costs and drug prices continue to rise much faster than inflation or wages. The 2018 mid-term election, which saw Democrats unseat GOP congressional incumbents and capture Republican-dominated seats, could be a bellwether of growing voter interest in tangible action on health care. Most prominent Democratic 2020 presidential candidates have apparently heard that message, which accounts for their support for Medicare-for-All or something like it that is significant and meaningful.

 

 

A Perpetual GOP-Controlled Senate May be in Nation’s Future

Senate GOP Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may act like he is politically invulnerable. He may be right.

Senate GOP Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may act like he is politically invulnerable. He may be right.

On OPB’s Livewire radio show over the weekend, Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley said America’s democracy is threatened by gerrymandering, voter suppression and dark money. He left off the growing dissimilarity of makeup of the US Senate to the US population.

Court cases are swirling around seeking to level the playing field on politically motivated gerrymandering, bar voter suppression of communities of color and restrict campaign contributions, or at least bring them fully into the sunshine. 

There is no viable challenge afoot to Senate representation that is becoming more distorted from the one-man, one-vote principle.

New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie paints a picture of a permanent GOP majority in the US Senate, despite growing Democratically leaning populations on both coasts.

“The Republican coalition of rural whites, exurban whites and anti-tax suburbanites may not be large enough to win the national popular vote in a head-to-head matchup with Democrats,” Bouie writes “But it covers a much larger part of the country’s landmass, giving it a powerful advantage in the Senate.”

When the Constitution was drafted, less populated states feared the dominance of Virginia, the California of its time. Virginia’s population of 747,610 dwarfed Delaware’s 59,094 residents, which led to the Madisoneque compromise giving every state, regardless of its population, two senators.

Fast forward to today and you have California with 40 million residents and Wyoming with fewer than 600,000 each represented by two senators. That’s “a disparity that gives a voter in Wyoming 67 times the voting power of a voter in California,” observes Bouie. 

The disparity is on track to get wider. “By 2040, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, half the population will live in eight states, with eight other states representing the next 20 percent of the population. The remaining 34 states will hold 30 percent of the population. In the Senate, this would give them 68 seats. Overall, half the country’s population would control 84 of the 100 seats in the chamber.”

The upshot, based on current red state/blue state trends, is a perpetual Republican asset, serving a GOP president and thwarting a Democratic president. Mitch McConnell is not an aberration; he is an avatar of the future.

The distortion that perpetuates GOP control also bedevils the Electoral College, which has delivered victory to more than one candidate, including the current incumbent, who lost the majority vote nationwide. This has led to calls for abolition of the Electoral College and electing presidents by majority vote. Not surprisingly, Republicans and red-state leaders have been cool to the idea.

As the 2020 presidential election comes into focus, Democratic strategists have begun to explore ways to offset the growing predominance of Republicans in the Senate. Bouie reports some of the ideas, inspired by David Faris’ “It’s Time to Fight Dirty,”  have a ring of truth as well as novelty.

One idea is to add more states such as DC and Puerto Rico and break up California into six states, which presumably would give Democrats a net of 14 more or less permanently Democratic senators. Of course, Republicans could respond by following suit in GOP-leaning mega-states such as Texas and Florida.

The Roosevelt Institute offers a similar, but distinctly different alternative – add representatives to the Senate from the Atlantic territories, Pacific territories and Native tribes. A mix of nations – Australia, Brazil, France, Finland and Denmark – have set aside seats in their parliaments for indigenous peoples. Again, it would be hard to imagine Republicans and red states falling for this logic and undoing their home-field advantage.

The underlying conclusion Bouie reaches is that even if Democrats somehow manage to unseat President Trump in 2020, retain control of the House, overcome gerrymandering, thwart voter suppression and blunt dark money, Republicans will still be in the captain’s chair in the Senate, obstructing Democratic initiatives and blocking Democratically appointed judges. The story of Merrick Garland will be repeated and become the norm.

With 22 seats to defend, Senate Republicans would seem vulnerable in 2020. However, only two are in Democrat-leaning states. Democrats hold an Alabama Senate seat, which is likely to flip back to form. In other words, unless Democrats win the Senate against the odds, Bouie says everything else they win may be for naught.

 

 

Coffee Mugs Wake up America, Portray Prexy Preferences

Every 2020 presidential candidate, and even a few who aren’t running, have commemorative coffee mugs to make their supporters swoon over a hot mug of java. No one better befits the coffee mug motif than Cup of Joe Biden.

Every 2020 presidential candidate, and even a few who aren’t running, have commemorative coffee mugs to make their supporters swoon over a hot mug of java. No one better befits the coffee mug motif than Cup of Joe Biden.

Twitter is thick with tweets about trade problems with China, escalating Iranian threats and congressional subpoenas. You also can order your favorite mug from a 2020 presidential challenger.

Other than campaign buttons, coffee mugs are the most common medium to convey your current political convictions. And candidates are more than willing to oblige.

What might have been outrageous in 2016 seems placid in 2020. Trump’s re-election offers platinum contributors a ceramic coffee cup with the pedestrian “Trump 2020/Keep America Great.” You also can get a Trump bobble-head with an extra-long red tie or a Manhattan glass with “Give me another.”

John Delaney, one of the lesser known Democratic presidential hopefuls, offers a coffee mug where you can improvise your own text. Like, “Are you crazy. John Delaney for President.”

Bernie Sanders has the second-most quoted campaign slogan that emblazons his coffee mugs, “Feel the Bern/2020.” There is a subliminal alternative that features The Bern with Nixon “V” signs and a Trump-like extra-long tie. There also is the clever, “Hindsight is 2020.”

Beto O’Rourke can be celebrated with a mug that creatively says, “Beto.” The coffee mug for Mayor Pete Buttigieg is slightly more exciting, “Pete/2020.” On trendier websites, you can find “Pete is Neat” mugs and more mugs that say “Beto.”

For the less particular, yet highly motivated voter, there is the “Literally Anyone Else” coffee mug. Other options include “He’s not my President” and “Impeach Donald Trump.” 

The Kamala Harris mug echoes her campaign stump speech, “Kamala Kamala Kamala Kamala.” To show her Twitter cred, there is also a mug that says, “Kamala for Ptus.”

Elizabeth Warren’s presidential coffee mug is actual a set of encyclopedias. For the politically incorrect crowd, there is a Warren/2020 mug with an Indian arrow. For the true Warren believers, there is the mug, “PERSIST, Elizabeth Warren/2020.”

The Jay Inslee presidential mug is a disappointment because it doesn’t come with a Starbucks sleeve. 

To please people who will be distracted through much of the 2020 presidential contest, there are special mugs – “November is Coming” and “Pratt/Reynolds.” For self-medicating voters, you can grab a mug that says, “Kanye for President.”

The coffee mug motif is built for Biden. Despite the funny mugs with Biden’s name and a pair of hands groping the 0s in 2020, there are some cabinet-ready candidates, though none better than “Cup of Joe.” It is reminder of those Folger coffee and Dunkin’ Donut ads.

Of course, votes, not coffee cups determine the outcome of elections. Maybe none do as much justice to that ideal than cups bearing “Save us, Michelle” and “Alexandria Cortez-Ocasio.2024.” Sometimes coffee just needs to age.

Presidential candidate coffee mugs.jpg

 

 

Executive Orders Could Give New Hope to Coal Terminal

Recent executive orders signed by President Trump seek to relax federal rules that have been used by states such as Washington to block fossil fuel export terminals, sparking speculation the proposed coal export terminal in Longview could be resurrected.

Recent executive orders signed by President Trump seek to relax federal rules that have been used by states such as Washington to block fossil fuel export terminals, sparking speculation the proposed coal export terminal in Longview could be resurrected.

A coal terminal in Longview, Washington may not be fully buried and gone, according to Carl Segestrom, an editorial fellow at High Country News.

In a piece carried by Mother Jones, Segerstrom speculates that Trump administration executive orders issued April 10 could lead to a rewrite of Section 401 rules under the Clean Water Act. States and tribes rely on existing rules to deny permits for facilities that release pollutants into federally protected waters such as the Columbia River.

“Trump’s directive declares that the current process ‘cause(s) confusion and uncertainty, leading to project delays, lost jobs, and reduced economic performance,’” Segerstrom asserts. The administration’s goal, he adds, is to tip the scales more in favor of extractive industries and away from states such as Washington and Oregon that have blocked fossil fuel export facilities.

“In the name of energy dominance, the federal government is looking to curtail state environmental reviews and promote fossil fuel exports. By doing so, it’s wading into an ongoing fight between coastal and Interior West states over permit denials for export facilities on the West Coast,” he writes. 

The effort to locate a 44 million ton coal expert facility in Longview was blocked when the Washington Department of Ecology declined to issue a water quality permit as required under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act.

The effort to locate a 44 million ton coal expert facility in Longview was blocked when the Washington Department of Ecology declined to issue a water quality permit as required under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act.

Segerstrom questions whether the federal Environmental Protection Agency will weaken rules enough to resurrect the proposed 44 million ton Millennium coal terminal in Longview. While he doesn’t say so directly, turnover in the White House after the 2020 election could scuttle the rule changes Trump seeks.

The Washington Department of Ecology denied Millennium a water quality permit In September 2017, citing Section 401 rules intended to protect federal waterways. US District Court Judge Robert Bryan rejected an appeal last month that argued the water quality permit denial interfered with the Constitution’s Commerce Clause provision.

Energy industry officials and elected officials from energy-producing inland states have pushed for rule changes that will give them an opportunity to site West Coast terminals to export crude oil, liquified natural gas, propane, methanol and coal to Pacific Rim markets. They argue these fossil fuel exports will in many cases substitute for fuels that produce higher level of greenhouse gas emissions. They also say the exports occur anyway through US ports on the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in longer, more expensive ocean trips to their Asian destinations. 

Fossil fuel export terminals have failed to gain critical Clean Water Act permits, but there are other objections that have played a role, most notably concern over more unit-train traffic and a heightened threat of spills and explosions.

Segerstrom cites Diane Dick, a Longview activist who has fought the coal terminal for nearly a decade. “From the beginning, she said the fight over the terminal felt bigger than just one project; she’s watched it become a poster child for a national debate over energy infrastructure. Now, as the executive branch tilts the scales against local environmental protection, Dick sees a larger question looming: When and based on what can a community protect itself?”

 

Best Bipartisan Opportunity: Lowering Prescription Drug Prices

The best opportunity in a fractious Congress for bipartisan legislative success appears to be in an effort to curb prescription drug prices, which critics say are higher than charged in other Western countries and are forcing some Americans to ration prescriptions or even avoid treatment.

The best opportunity in a fractious Congress for bipartisan legislative success appears to be in an effort to curb prescription drug prices, which critics say are higher than charged in other Western countries and are forcing some Americans to ration prescriptions or even avoid treatment.

If a bipartisan deal is going to be struck this year, it will deal with lowering prescription drug prices, according to an Axios report.

“The White House and top lawmakers from both parties think a bill to lower drug prices has a better chance of becoming law before the 2020 election than any other controversial legislation,” says Caitlin Owens of Axios. “Republican politics on drug prices have changed rapidly. The White House has told Democrats it has no red lines on the substance of drug pricing – a position that should leave pharma quaking.”

The only red line for the White House is tying drug legislation to revisions of the Affordable Care Act. But Trump officials have given the green flag to using Medicare negotiations as leverage to lower drug prices.

Axios indicates momentum is growing for legislative action before the August recess, viewed by many as the last fertile moment for compromise before the start of the 2020 presidential election political desert when nothing can get approved. Bills are already moving in Congress aimed at influencing drug prices by limiting extended monopolies and expanding access to generic prescription drugs.

Republicans are introducing bills that previously would have been viewed as liberal. Texas Senator Mike Cornyn proposes giving the Federal Trade Commission the power to bring antitrust suits against pharmaceutical companies that use patents to discourage competition. House GOP leader Mark Meadows is part of a bipartisan group exploring a proposal to tie Medicare reimbursement rates to the international price of prescription drugs. Florida Senator Rick Scott introduced legislation preventing US drug companies from charging higher list prices than in Canada, France, Britain, Japan and Germany.

This spate of activity around drug pricing has put the pharmaceutical industry on high alert. Drug company officials have warned proposed legislation could slow investments in promising new drug treatments and upset the “pharmaceutical ecosystem.” That is an appeal aimed at President Trump who has expressed strong support for drug therapy advancement. 

Getting anything of significance accomplished in Congress is never easy. Partisan fights over what to do in response the Mueller report, health care and border security could derail any bipartisan effort on prescription drugs. The embrace by Democrats for a single-payor Medicare for All system could be a particular problem in that it could exacerbate the existing price differences between Medicare and private health insurance.

“Anything that gets done would need to be passed before the August recess, which itself is growing more unlikely as time passes and fights over the ACA and other issues erode whatever bipartisan collaboration that might have existed," a former Trump administration official told Axios.

The prospect of legislative action on drug pricing, supported by the Trump administration, has taken its toll on the stock prices of major pharmaceutical companies – and sharply lowered the multi-million compensation of their CEOs.


The Privacy Project Seeks to Inform Deliberate Digital Choices

From wondering if your smart speaker is eavesdropping on you to learning your online data has been sold to advertisers, the digital world has become a scarier place, even as technology has made it more inviting and inevitable. Privacy has suffered, but does it matter? The Privacy Project aims to inform readers, stimulate conversation and move us toward deliberate choices.

From wondering if your smart speaker is eavesdropping on you to learning your online data has been sold to advertisers, the digital world has become a scarier place, even as technology has made it more inviting and inevitable. Privacy has suffered, but does it matter? The Privacy Project aims to inform readers, stimulate conversation and move us toward deliberate choices.

Is Alexa an electronic intruder in your home? Can you go anywhere, including your Airbnb rental, without showing up in a surveillance camera video? Are your social media sites conduits to reveal your behavior patterns and preferences to advertisers – and politicians?

All are questions relating to the privacy we have forfeited without realizing it in the digital age.

The threats to privacy and a level playing field have provoked strong proposals from the likes of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. As a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, Warren has called for the break-up of big tech monopolies and regulation to prevent self-dealing – and often opaque – privacy policies.

Oregon Senator Ron Wyden has led the way for many years on net neutrality, the policy that would prohibit internet providers from manipulating access and online speed to favor their own prime customers and disadvantage competitors. He also has criticized Facebook and other digital leviathans for cashing in on the data they collect, often without express user consent or knowledge, that is sold to advertisers or political advocacy groups.

However, breaking up big tech companies and guaranteeing net neutrality don’t exactly address digital privacy concerns. Those policies don’t litigate the fundamental question of whether consumers unwittingly surrender their privacy for the convenience of tech devices. They don’t rise to the level of asking where the boundaries are between what’s private and what’s fair game.

We live in an increasingly digital world, in which privacy has been clearly compromised and few policies exist to protect privacy. The New York Times has launched the Privacy Project to inform and stimulate conversation toward more deliberate choices.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/opinion/internet-privacy-project.html

We live in an increasingly digital world, in which privacy has been clearly compromised and few policies exist to protect privacy. The New York Times has launched the Privacy Project to inform and stimulate conversation toward more deliberate choices.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/opinion/internet-privacy-project.html

The New York Times has launched a month-long initiative called the Privacy Project, which will examine issues surrounding privacy. In its Sunday opinion section, the Times published pieces from various points of view. Author Samantha Irby said her love of connectivity outweighed any concerns about loss of privacy. Law professor Tim Wu said corporate greed has stripped away privacy for financial gain. The Times publisher writes about how the newspaper views its responsibility in the digital age.

Other articles discussed the safety of women online and how insurance companies can track Fitbit data to use in determining your health insurance rates. Recode editor Kara Swisher wrote that Americans have surrendered too much control over their digital lives and need government regulation to get it back. Columnist Ross Douthat said the solution to compromised privacy is relying less on the internet. Author KJ Dell’Antonia urged people to pull back from social media, which can be an accomplice in sacrificing privacy for families and children.

Serious and stimulating stuff, which the Times intends as conversation-starters. “In recent years, as we’ve been blurring the boundaries between what’s public and what’s private,” Times Editor James Bennet wrote, “we’ve been doing so largely by accident, or by leaving the decisions to the vagaries of innovation and the pull of market incentives.” 

“As consumers and citizens,” Bennet said, “we need to understand the benefits and the costs and make deliberate choices. Rather than hurriedly consenting to someone else’s privacy policy, it’s time for us to write our own.”

Ironically, this conversation is likely to occur online. We are that digitally dependent. But where the conversation occurs is less significant than whether it occurs. Technological giddiness and laissez-faire attitudes aren’t adequate substitutes for what Bennet refers to as “deliberate choices.”

A good place to start in forming your own views is the Times Privacy Project. Some of the articles may enrage you. Others may alarm you. All of them seek to inform you of the choices we all may need to make – sooner than later.

 

A Website Devoted to Data-Driven Facts, Imagine That

When billionaire Steve Balmer’s wife urged him to step up his philanthropy, his first step was to create a nonprofit to conduct a deep dive into available data to find how tax money is spent, who gets help and who needs help. The result was usafacts.org.

When billionaire Steve Balmer’s wife urged him to step up his philanthropy, his first step was to create a nonprofit to conduct a deep dive into available data to find how tax money is spent, who gets help and who needs help. The result was usafacts.org.

At a moment in US political history when facts are under assault, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has created what he calls a “data-driven portrait of the American population, our government’s finances and government’s impact on society.”

Usafacts.org was launched on Tax Day in 2017 after Ballmer’s wife, Connie, challenged him to use more of his estimated $41 billion net worth on philanthropy. That triggered Balmer’s curiosity in exactly how US government programs help Americans who need financial assistance. He quickly discovered the combination of federal, state and local government is enormous – and enormously complex. The information he sought about where governments get their money and how they spend it was not readily available.

That led Balmer to invest $30 million to create a non-partisan nonprofit with a team of economists, researchers and writers to find out by analyzing publicly available data streams.

The metrics Balmer chose to evaluate data are drawn from the preamble to the US Constitution. It describes the role of the federal government – “establish justice and ensure domestic tranquility; provide for the common defense; promote the general welfare; secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.”

The metrics Balmer chose to evaluate data are drawn from the preamble to the US Constitution. It describes the role of the federal government – “establish justice and ensure domestic tranquility; provide for the common defense; promote the general welfare; secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.”

The result is a website that features “our nation, in numbers.” Lots and lots of numbers. And fascinating charts and maps. Some of the current topics include how the US economy is performing, what happens with the Social Security deductions from our paychecks and how money flows in and out of the US government.

More provocative topics include why immigrants come to America, who benefits from food stamps and how close the country and individual states are to eliminating fossil fuel emissions. 

Ballmer’s vision was to create a set of documents that parallel what publicly trade corporations are required by law to file. The 2018 annual report serves up a potpourri of interesting facts such as:

  • Incarceration rates have climbed faster than population growth since 1980;

  • There are fewer Americans serving in active duty today than in 2016;

  • US GDP growth has averaged 2.7% since 1980 despite changing approaches in taxation, interest rates and economic stimulus; and

  • Border apprehensions are down 80% since 2000 while the number of border agents has increased from 4,139 in 1992 to 19.437 in 2018. 

The 2018 USAFacts 10-K Report includes a staggering section on risk factors. Some of the risks include:

  • Even though the federal government discourages unhealthy behavior, Americans still have the right to smoke, speed and ignore warning labels.

  • There are “personnel security clearance processing challenges” that create national risk.

  • Government revenue and spending are significantly affected by swings in the economy because of the reliance on personal and corporate income taxes.

  • Failure to control budget deficits can impede the government’s ability to provide needed services over the long run.

  • Government has significant fiscal exposure associated with a changing climate.

  • Constitutional objectives may be significantly affected by social unrest.

  • The financial future of retirees is threatened by insolvency of Social Security trust funds and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.

  • Promoting good health, especially for the elderly, faces challenges.

When fully considered, usafacts.org is more than a stiff set of stats. It is eye-opening, deep-dive into America’s box score. There is even a section devoted to American’s interest in and belief of facts.

If facts still matter to you, usafacts.org could be a website worth bookmarking to find a trove of them.

 

Trump Trade Initiatives Face Stronger Headwinds

Regions like the Pacific Northwest rely heavily on international trade to bolster their economies. Concerns are growing the US economy may suffer because Trump administration trade initiatives such as the new NAFTA are foundering.

Regions like the Pacific Northwest rely heavily on international trade to bolster their economies. Concerns are growing the US economy may suffer because Trump administration trade initiatives such as the new NAFTA are foundering.

Trump administration trade talks with China remain in limbo and negotiations with the European Union have flatlined. Now Trump’s new NAFTA trade agreement is faltering in Congress. The absence of agreements and the continuation of tariffs are piling more stress on manufacturers and farmers. 

No one expected trade talks with China would be a cake walk. Bruised relationships with European political leaders may contribute to stalled negotiations with the EU over agricultural products. But Trump trumpeted his success in maneuvering Mexico and China into a trade deal only to see the agreement flounder amid bipartisan complaints.

The early onset of the 2020 presidential election only complicates the situation with trade policies morphing into trade politics.

Trump’s protectionism has begun to chafe with traditionally free-trade Republicans, many of whom represent agricultural interests that are paying the price of a trade war with lost sales and the prospect of lost markets.

Republican Senate Finance Chair Charles Grassley has flatly told Trump he won’t move the new NAFTA trade deal until Trump lifts steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Canada has strongly objected to the continuing tariffs, which has become an issue in its upcoming elections. Trump trade officials believe Chinese steel producers are evading the tariffs by shipping through Mexico.

“The tariffs are going to come off because the president has a good agreement,” Grassley told The Washington Post. “It’s just a matter of his realizing that nothing’s going to happen until the tariffs go off. And so the tariffs come off if he wants to get a win.” Grassley said Trump has refused because he feels the tariffs have revived the domestic steel industry and is insisting on quotas as a fallback when tariffs are lifted.

The AFL-CIO has refused to endorse the trade agreement until the Mexican parliament approves promised labor reforms. House Democrats aren’t on board, either. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she won’t put the agreement on the House floor until she sees proof of tougher, effective enforcement provisions. 

Liberal Democrats say the deal is a nonstarter because of provisions they say codify exclusive 10-year rights to biologics, which they view as a “total giveaway to Big Pharma.”

Trump officials remain optimistic. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin posed for pictures late last week after a bargaining session with his Chinese counterparts that he deemed “productive,” even as several deadlines have come and gone. The International Trade Commission’s analysis of new NAFTA won’t be completed until mid-April, which starts the congressional clock on approval.

However, negotiations face a political clock as leading Democratic presidential contenders oppose the new NAFTA, heartland farmers grow restive as they see hard-earned global markets evaporate, the US economy begins to show signs of stalling and trade deficits keep climbing.

 

Calling Balls and Strikes in the Supreme Court

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is unequivocally conservative, but as only the 17th chief justice in US history and after 16 years as chief justice, Roberts is in a position to tip the high court in either direction on highly partisan cases such as extreme gerrymandering, the citizenship question on the Census and, once more, on the constitutionality of Obamacare. (Photo Credit: Doug Mills/The New York Times)

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is unequivocally conservative, but as only the 17th chief justice in US history and after 16 years as chief justice, Roberts is in a position to tip the high court in either direction on highly partisan cases such as extreme gerrymandering, the citizenship question on the Census and, once more, on the constitutionality of Obamacare. (Photo Credit: Doug Mills/The New York Times)

Congress may be deadlocked, but the conservative slant of the US Supreme Court is undeniable with a distinctly conservative chief justice and four ready followers.

Yet, Chief Justice John Roberts, only the 17th chief justice in the history of the country, remains an enigmatic, even secretive figure who broke the hearts of conservatives in 2016 by confirming Obamacare was constitutional. Now, the court he oversees will be faced with deciding seminally partisan cases involving political gerrymandering that could test his ideological leanings. Oral arguments in the cases were made on Tuesday.

The cases involve extreme gerrymandering by Republicans in North Carolina and Democrats in Maryland that good-government advocates are opposing, with electoral results in the pivotal 2020 election in the balance. Both cases, experts say, will test Roberts to see if he is more ideologue than institutionalist. 

Without a lot of fanfare, Roberts has served as chief justice for 16 years. At just 64, he could serve for in his role for another 20 years.

Coincidentally, a biography of Roberts has just been published that confirms advocates from both the political left and right are wary of him, despite his privileged upbringing and a clearly conservative record on voting rights, affirmative action, campaign contributions, abortion rights and same-sex marriage. 

Joan Biskupic, in her biography The Chief: The Life and Turbulent Times of Chief Justice John Roberts, describes him as the son of a steel company executive and product of an upper-class, all-white suburban Catholic prep school education. Roberts then went to Harvard for his undergraduate and law school degrees.

As an attorney, Roberts argued 39 cases before the Supreme Court before his nomination by President George W. Bush to succeed retiring Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. When Chief Justice William Rehnquist died before his confirmation, Bush upgraded Roberts’ nomination to chief justice. In his confirmation hearing, Roberts compared the role of judges to baseball umpires who calls balls and strikes. 

Now, the chief justice, who also doubles as the adult-in-the-room swing vote on the court, must decide on a pair of mirror cases that reflect unvarnished political gerrymandering. He also will deal with a case involving the citizenship question on the 2020 US Census, which also pits GOP ideology against a clear violation of the federal Administrative Procedure Act.

Biskupic thinks these cases could expose a side of Roberts often overlooked – his eagerness to avoid civil division. Citing Roberts’ vote in the Obamacare ruling, she says: “Viewed only through a judicial lens, [Roberts’] moves were not consistent, and his legal arguments were not entirely coherent. But he brought people and their different interests together. His moves may have been good for the country at a time of division and a real crisis in health care, even as they engendered, in the years since, anger, confusion and distrust.”

Roberts has shown a willingness to cross swords with his conservative soul mates, such as when he admonished President Trump for trashing a federal court judge. However, conservatives will expect Roberts to stay at his ideological home on seminal cases involving raw politics. The question is whether Roberts will stick to his ideological roots or, in cases involving partisan issues, perform like his proverbial umpire calling balls and strikes.

 

Congressional Drug Pricing Strategy Begins to Emerge

Polls indicate high prescription drug prices are a top congressional priority for a majority of Americans. The Senate Finance Committee held a high-profile hearing to pummel pharmaceutical executives for price gouging. Now the House Energy and Commerce Committee is expected to advance two bills aimed at anticompetitive actions that block or delay the introduction of lower-cost generic drugs, which will be a prelude to a later, more controversial effort to allow Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices.

Polls indicate high prescription drug prices are a top congressional priority for a majority of Americans. The Senate Finance Committee held a high-profile hearing to pummel pharmaceutical executives for price gouging. Now the House Energy and Commerce Committee is expected to advance two bills aimed at anticompetitive actions that block or delay the introduction of lower-cost generic drugs, which will be a prelude to a later, more controversial effort to allow Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices.

The Senate Finance Committee pummeled seven pharmaceutical executives a week ago about price gouging. Next week, the House Energy and Commerce Committee begins considering two bills to lower drug prices that may attract bipartisan and bicameral support.

The House bills are the CREATES Act and “pay for delay” legislation. Both aim to limit anticompetitive actions by pharmaceutical companies to block or delay introduction of lower-cost generic versions of their brand name drugs.

A version of the CREATES (Creating and Restoring Equal Access to Equivalent Samples) Act passed out of the Senate Judiciary Committee last summer on a solid bipartisan vote. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the legislation, if passed into law, could save consumers and private insurers billions of dollars, while also contributing to reduce the federal budget deficit.

“The bipartisan CREATES Act is a free-market solution that respects intellectual property rights and encourages greater competition that will inevitably lower the price of prescription medications for the American patient,” Iowa GOP Senator Charles Grassley said. 

The “pay for delay” legislation also has a Senate counterpart introduced last December by Grassley and Minnesota Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is a 2020 presidential candidate. The measure seeks to limit pharmaceutical companies from striking deals to prevent or delay biosimilar and interchangeable biologics to generic versions.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has made the issue of high-cost drugs a legislative priority, believes it is smart strategy to get a couple of wins before tackling the more controversial issue of allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies. Her strategy of starting small is a reflection of the political clout drug companies have on Capitol Hill.

Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, the Ranking Democrat on Senate Finance, took the lead last week in lambasting pharmaceutical company executives as “morally repugnant” for their inability to explain why prescription drugs are more expensive in the United States than overseas. “You’re willing to sit by and hose the American consumer while giving price breaks to consumers overseas,” Wyden said. 

Independent healthcare analyst Joshua Cohen, writing for Forbes, said drug companies aren’t entirely to blame. He explained that health plans, pharmacy benefit managers and employer health insurance sponsors negotiate sizable rebates on listed drug prices. Insureds don’t always see the benefits of those rebates, Cohen added, because their coinsurance is based on the list price, not the lower rebate price. The result, he said, is a “public outcry aimed at the drug companies for high prices.”

“To be constructive, [Congress] should not only probe the pricing of prescription drugs by pharmaceutical manufacturers, it should also investigate the billing and pricing practices of hospitals, physicians, and insurers. Ultimately the problems related to the relentless rise of overall healthcare costs are not going to be solved by putting blinders on and solely targeting the pharmaceutical industry,” Cohen concluded.

While high drug prices may be the result of a complex set of circumstances, Bloomberg says the underlying truth is that Americans pay more per capita for prescription drugs than anyone else in the world.

While high drug prices may be the result of a complex set of circumstances, Bloomberg says the underlying truth is that Americans pay more per capita for prescription drugs than anyone else in the world.

Bloomberg story last month summarized the issue simply. “Americans spend more on prescription drugs – average costs are about $1,200 per person per year – than anyone else in the world. It’s true that they take a lot of pills. But what really sets the United States apart from most other countries is high prices. Cancer drugs in the United States routinely cost $10,000 a month. Even prices for old drugs have spiked, as companies have bought up medicines that face no competition and boosted charges.” 

Sensing congressional action is at hand, pharmaceutical companies are taking actions or expressing a willingness to do so. Eli Lilly announced it will sell a cheaper generic version of its rapid-action Humalog insulin.

"We don't want anyone to ration or skip doses of insulin due to affordability. And no one should pay the full Humalog retail price," Eli Lilly Chairman and CEO Dave Ricks said. He described the generic drug as "a bridge that addresses gaps in the current system until we have a more sustainable model."

Senate Breaks Century-Old Precedent in Approving Seattle Judge

Seattle attorney Eric Miller was confirmed this week to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals over the objections of Washington’s two Democratic senators, breaking a precedent dating back a century and foreshadowing a continuing attempt by President Trump to place more conservative judges on the federal bench. [Photo Credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo]

Seattle attorney Eric Miller was confirmed this week to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals over the objections of Washington’s two Democratic senators, breaking a precedent dating back a century and foreshadowing a continuing attempt by President Trump to place more conservative judges on the federal bench. [Photo Credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo]

A Seattle-based Assistant US Attorney was confirmed this week by the Senate to a lifetime appointment on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. It was the first time in a century that a federal judge was confirmed without the endorsement of at least one US senator from the nominee’s home state.

Eric Miller, 43, a presidential nominee who formerly clerked for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, was confirmed on a party-line vote over the objections of Washington Democratic Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. They declined to return “blue slips” indicating support for Miller because of what they called his “hostility toward tribal rights.” Murray and Cantwell also complained Miller’s confirmation hearing was a sham because it was scheduled during a Senate recess and only two Republican senators attended.

Last summer, the White House withdrew a similar nomination of Assistant US Attorney for Oregon Ryan Bounds over objections by Oregon’s Democratic Senators Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley. The Bounds’ nomination to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals was withdrawn after Republican Senators Tim Scott and Marco Rubio refused to vote for his confirmation. 

Placing conservatives on federal courts, especially the liberal-leaning 23-judge Ninth Circuit, has been a political goal of President Trump’s administration. Trump has often complained about unfriendly, liberal and “Obama” judges that have imposed legal impediments to his policy initiatives such as a Muslim travel ban and family separation on the US-Mexican border.

Ironically, Republican senators used the “blue-slip” prerogative to veto Obama judicial nominees. Under Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate rules on judicial appointments were changed to allow simple majorities, instead of the previous 60-vote threshold, to confirm federal judges. Ignoring the absence of “blue slips” is another step down a slippery path of politicizing federal judicial confirmations.

Murray called the confirmation of Miller a “dangerous first.” Cantwell said it set a “damaging precedent.” California Senator Dianne Feinstein, the Ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, told The Washington Post, “It is regrettable and likely will result in more ideological nominees who don’t reflect the values of their home states. It’s hard to not see this action coming back to bite Republicans when they’re no longer in power in the Senate.”

On the Senate floor, Murray charged, “Abandoning the blue slip process and instead, bending to the will of a president who has demonstrated time and time again his ignorance and disdain for the Constitution and the rule of law is a mistake.” She noted Miller’s confirmation hearing included less than five minutes of questioning – “less questioning for a lifetime appointment than most students face for a book report.” 

According to Roll Call, more nominees are in the wings that lack endorsement by home-state senators in New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island. “I think it’s going to be very hard for folks who allowed the blue slip to evaporate to complain if wonderful New York judges start getting appointed into South Carolina, or Nebraska, or Louisiana or other places, because you’ve disarmed the one thing that gives you the ability to do something about that,” Rhode Island Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse told Roll Call.

McConnell praised Miller, who holds undergraduate degree from Harvard and a law degree from the University of Chicago. During his abbreviated confirmation hearing, Miller said as a US solicitor general he has argued a case before the Supreme Court defending tribal lands. Subsequently in private practice, he said he represented a client that opposed tribal interests. He described his previous roles as an advocate “not to advance my own views but to advance my client’s views.”  

Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham said the blue slip tradition is more of a courtesy than a veto. Graham did say it was his intention to retain the blue slip process for US District Court judicial appointments.

 

Wyden Comments on Green New Deal, China Trade and Tax Breaks

In an expansive interview with the  Portland Business Journal , Oregon Senator Ron Wyden defended the Green New Deal, questioned the effectiveness of tariffs to influence China trade policy and urged the IRS to waive penalties for federal income taxpayers who failed to withhold enough for their 2018 taxes.

In an expansive interview with the Portland Business Journal, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden defended the Green New Deal, questioned the effectiveness of tariffs to influence China trade policy and urged the IRS to waive penalties for federal income taxpayers who failed to withhold enough for their 2018 taxes.

Oregon Senator Ron Wyden defended the Green New Deal, questioned tariffs on China trade and touted legislation to unmask shell company ownership in an expansive interview with the Portland Business Journal published this week.

Oregon’s senior senator also urged the Trump administration to waive IRS penalties on taxpayers who failed to withhold enough money to cover their 2018 income tax and called for a review to determine if opportunity zones are being used as intended to encourage investment in impoverished areas.

Wyden called criticism of the Green New Deal “nonsense.” “It is a resolution. It is aspirational, not a legislative text,” he said. Wyden, who is the ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said he is looking at “throwing more than 40 separate tax breaks for energy…, which are basically dirty energy relics that cost billions of dollars a year, into the trashcan and substituting three new ones: one for clear energy, one for clean transportation and one for energy efficiency.”

On trade with China, Wyden said there is agreement “tariffs should be part of the trade toolbox, but we don’t share the view that every time there’s an issue, you drop another tariff. It has not worked particularly well with China.” He said strong measures are necessary to stop China from “ripping off our technology.”

Wyden said bipartisan support is growing for legislation he and Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio have introduced to require shell companies to disclose their beneficial owners. Failing to require ownership disclosure, he explained, would mean “you’re playing catch-up ball.”

Taxpayers who face penalties for their 2018 federal income taxes deserve a break, Wyden said, because the IRS didn’t properly update its withholding tables and forced taxpayers to deal with “complicated online calculator, which had its own problems.” He added that multinational corporations “are not sweating it today [because] they’ve got their tax breaks locked in.”

Wyden agreed a review is needed to see if opportunity zone tax incentives are being mis-applied. PBJ reporter Matthew Kish noted Oregon has used an expansive definition for opportunity zones, which include Portland’s downtown area, prompting Bloomberg  Businessweek to call it “Tax Breaklandia

Wyden said the goal of his Craft Beverage Modernization and Tax Reform Act is to “promote innovation and focus on small guys.” He also touted his ELEVATE Act that aims to “connect the dots” between training dislocated workers for thousands of available jobs.

In upcoming days, Wyden said the Senate Finance Committee will invite seven CEOs from major pharmaceutical companies at a hearing to “get an agreement to stop some price-gouging.” “What I want to know is whether they're going to get beyond the blame game. Everything they always do with respect to pharmaceutical prices and health care costs generally is blaming the other guy,” he said.

 

Green New Deal is More of a Signal Than a Statute

The optics were unmistakable. A 29-year-old freshman member of Congress was a leading voice at the introduction of the Green New Deal resolution, which has little chance of passage, but presages an important political moment when the fears and wishes of a younger generation push up against the pessimism and patronization of an older generation in politics.

The optics were unmistakable. A 29-year-old freshman member of Congress was a leading voice at the introduction of the Green New Deal resolution, which has little chance of passage, but presages an important political moment when the fears and wishes of a younger generation push up against the pessimism and patronization of an older generation in politics.

The Green New Deal resolution just introduced in Congress is less a plan of action and more a barometer of a new political wind.

The incoming Democratic majority in the House radiates the energy and activism of younger voters who will face the perils of climate change and are demanding bold action now. The Green New Deal is the Democratic response.

The incoming Democratic majority in the House radiates the energy and activism of younger voters who will face the perils of climate change and are demanding bold action now.

Because the Senate remains in Republican control and the White House is occupied by someone who denies the science of climate change, Democrats can only point to policies that wean America off fossil fuels and accelerate a renewable energy future. It will be up to states such as Oregon, where Democrats are in solid control, to advance specific climate change legislation, whether in the form of a carbon tax or cap-and-trade regime.

The optics of the Green New Deal nonbinding resolution’s introduction were unmistakable. Long-time environmental crusader Ed Markey, D-Mass, shared the platform with freshman phenom Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Markey said, “Our energy future will not be found in the dark of a mine, but in the light of the sun.” Ocasio-Cortez added, “All great American programs, everything from The Great Society to the New Deal, started with a vision for our future.”

Critics called the plan unrealistic, lacking in specifics and too costly. They said advocates of the Green New Deal need to do a “whole lot more homework.” To youthful supporters, the criticism sounds a lot like patronizing parental pessimism.

Ocasio-Cortez shot back: “For 40 years we have tried to let the private sector take care of this. They said, 'We got this, we can do this, the forces of the market are going to force us to innovate.' Except for the fact that there’s a little thing in economics called externalities. And what that means is that a corporation can dump pollution in the river and they don’t have to pay, but taxpayers have to pay."

To be sure, there would be huge technical and significant economic challenges to reach a zero-carbon target in 10 years. For example, cars are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, but many people hold onto their cars as long as 10 years. One of the biggest sources of methane emissions are cows.

"Even the solutions that we have considered big and bold are nowhere near the scale of the actual problem that climate change presents to us," Ocasio-Cortez told NPR's Steve Inskeep.

Youthful supporters are undaunted by those challenges. Sunrise Movement held a web meeting with supporters from all over the country and pledged to amp up lobbying for the Green New Deal during February. One of the group’s leaders said sit-ins may occur in the offices of Members of Congress who don’t endorse the Green New Deal.

But “old-timers” chimed in, too. “The Green New Deal resolution is essential in building and sustaining momentum to deal with the climate crisis,” Oregon Congressman Earl Blumenauer wrote his constituents. “Its message is one of ambitious, achievable and necessary hope. That’s why I’m excited to partner with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to help write this resolution and define its goals for this Congress.”

Congressional insiders recognize the Green New Deal won’t move in any significant way in this Congress. What they miss is that Ocasio-Cortez is a Member of Congress with a voting card and someone with an outsized following on Twitter who is driving the progressive political agenda. The only US political figure with more Twitter interactions if President Trump.

“When a 29-year-old former bartender of Puerto Rican descent beats a senior Democratic leader of the House, and then proceeds to set the political agenda during her first week in office, it’s more than a cute social media story," wrote Antonio Garcia Martinez in Wired. “She’s a harbinger of a new American political reality.”

This is what separates the Green New Deal from other legislative initiatives. It has become a generational anthem, not just a piece of legislation.