The Battle for the Gavel

The general election is a month away, but the plot is already thickening over who will be in control in the Oregon legislature after all the votes are counted. What's happening out of public sight is a combination of inside baseball and roller derby.

If Democrats regain control of the Oregon House, there appears little doubt Portland Rep. Tina Kotek will ascend to become House Speaker. Rep. Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay, who served as co-speaker in the 2011 and 2012 sessions, is running for an open Senate seat.

The bigger question is who takes over for Kotek as Democratic leader. Rep. Val Hoyle, D-Eugene, is the only declared candidate, but rumors have circulated that Rep. Tobias Read, D-Beaverton, is considering a bid for the post, which is complicated by his departure from Nike and search for a new job. 

Another logical option could be Rep. Peter Buckley, D-Ashland, but he may prefer to keep his job as co-chair of the Joint Ways and Means Committee for a third consecutive term. Another candidate who could emerge is Rep. Chris Garrett, D-Lake Oswego, who assumed the co-chairmanship of House Business and Labor after Rep. Mike Schaufler, D-Happy Valley, was stripped of the role after a scandal.

Earlier this year it looked as if there could be a rebellion in the House Republican caucus, with a handful of new lawmakers eager to be more aggressive in opposing Democrats, including Governor Kitzhaber. However, events — including a scandal that led Rep. Matt Wingard, R-Wilsonville, to drop his bid for re-election — seem to have cemented Roseburg Rep. Bruce Hanna's position as GOP leader or speaker if Republicans claim 31 or more House seats this fall.

Hanna, who enjoys a warm working relationship with Kitzhaber, which eased passage in 2011 of major gubernatorial initiatives, could still face a challenge from Rep. Dennis Richardson, R-Central Point, who favors a harder-line approach to policy issues. Richardson has served as the GOP co-chair of Ways and Means.

The sudden retirement of Senator Jason Atkinson, R-Central Point, and the primary victory of Tim Knopp over sitting GOP Senator Chris Telfer from Bend have sparked conversation about Senate Republican caucus leadership. Senator Ted Ferrioli, R-John Day, has mounted what could be described as loyal opposition in the Senate, but some expect Knopp, a former House majority leader, to inject more fire in caucus debates. Knopp has made no pubic gestures to unseat Ferrioli, but the caucus has edged to the right and may want a fresh voice leading it.

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Senator Starr takes national leadership position

Veteran Oregon senator, Bruce Starr, R-Hillsboro, has been named the vice president of the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), a bi-partisan organization that represents more than 7,300 state lawmakers and legislative staff members.  He took officer in San Antonio, Texas on August 11 and, after serving one year as vice president, is in line to become president-elect in 2012 and president in 2013.
Senator Bruce Starr, R-Hillsboro
Here's is what Starr said about his election.

“As legislators, we are keenly aware of the challenges our states and the nation are facing,” said Starr. “NCSL’s strength is in its bi-partisan approach and commitment to representing all the states’ interests. This leadership role is more important now than ever before. I’m grateful for the opportunity to serve.”

Starr is in his third term representing Oregon’s 15th Senate district. He has been actively involved in NCSL for more than a decade, including service on NCSL’s 60-member Executive Committee. He has held numerous NCSL positions, starting with the Elections Reform Task Force formed in the wake of the 2000 Bush/Gore presidential election. He chaired the NCSL Transportation Committee and the Working Group on the Federal Surface Transportation Act Reauthorization. He also served on NCSL’s Executive Committee’s Working Group on Committee Structure and Policy Development Process; the Public Private Partnerships Transportation Working Group; and the Deficit Reduction Task Force.

In the legislature here, he has won plaudits as the go-to Republican for transportation issues -- and, that, in fact, may be why he has made his mark at NCSL.

A Look at 2011 Legislative Leaders

Much has been written about the just-completed 2011 session of the Oregon legislature, but perhaps not enough about the key political personalities who drove the process and will be in charge when legislators reconvene next february.

Here's our take on key leaders:

Legislative leaders 

Sen. Peter Courtney (left) and Reps. Arnie Roblan and Bruce HannaThe three top presiding officers – Sen. Peter Courtney, D-Keizer; Rep. Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay; and Rep. Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg – have received a lot of credit for the reasonable conduct of legislative affairs this session.  They deserve it.  Their personalities, very different individually, meshed well and they combined to avoid the acrimony of the 2009 session. No doubt the nearly even split in control – 30 to 30 in the House and 16 to 14 for Democrats in the Senate left no choice but to reach agreement or get nothing done. That left The Oregonian to posit that split control should be the new norm in legislative sessions.

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Grading The Legislative Session: Probably B

At the risk of sounding like a teacher, I would give the legislature about a B grade this session.

Last Thursday at about 2:45 p.m. — a reasonable hour by past standards — the session closed to the normal huzzahs for a job well done. To be sure, the legislature can take credit for accomplishments in the areas of education, health care and redistricting.

In a House marked by split control for the first time in Oregon's history, it would be normal to count the accomplishments; each side was equally in charge, so each would get the credit or the debit.

In the Senate, Republicans, who were in the minority by one vote, came across as more critical, especially in regard to their session-long complaint that there was not enough focus on job creation.

Here are a few perceptions about the legislative session beyond the education, health care and redistricting subjects:

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Bi-Partisanship and Civility: The First Signs of Fracture?

That could be true based on several events last week – and it also could be true as legislators come face-to-face with the tough decisions they knew would dominate this session.

First, in a very unusual development last week, Rep. Bill Kennemer, R-Oregon City, took to the House floor to lambast Democratic leader Rep. Dave Hunt, D-Gladstone.

As The Oregonian put it: "Standing on the House floor, his hands shaking with nerves and anger, Republican Rep. Kennemer accused Democrats of 'lies, lies,' and then demanded the resignation of Rep. Hunt, the Democratic leader and former speaker."

This is unusual because there is a written code, and also a longstanding tradition, to avoid personal attacks on the House floor. Kennemer was interrupted once in his remarks, but then was able to continue to the end. He called for Hunt's resignation claiming Hunt and then- Majority Leader Mary Nolan, D-Portland, unfairly attacked Republicans on the campaign trail for favoring a sales tax.

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The Legislature Moves Toward Organization

“Planning for bipartisan coalition governance...” said House Speaker Dave Hunt the day after the November 2 election. The statement seems neither hopeful, nor hopeless. So how has the Legislature organized itself since the election?

The recounts are finished with no change to initial results. The Democrats still have a majority in the Senate, albeit this time by only one vote instead of three. Sen. Alan Bates, D-Ashland, is still a senator; Alan Olsen, R-Canby, will replace Senator Martha Schrader. Senator Peter Courtney, D-Salem, will remain the Senate President. Senator Richard Devlin, D-Tualatin, will co-chair the Full Ways and Means Committee, handing over control of the Senate Democratic Caucus to Sen. Diane Rosenbaum of Portland. Senate Committee assignments already have been decided.

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First Thoughts on the Election Returns

The results board at the Senate Democrats' election night party gave an early hint at a shift of power.November 2 was full of surprises. Close races, surprise upsets and easy victories marked this election.

Although Republican Chris Dudley's gubernatorial lead stands at 15,000 votes, it won't last and John Kitzhaber will be elected governor.  Around 65,000 Multnomah County ballots remain to be counted.  Kitzhaber is winning Multnomah County by roughly 70% of the vote, with Dudley at 28%.   If this margin stays consistent, it will be a net pick up of around 26,000 votes for Kitzhaber.  A smattering of votes are coming in from other counties (including liberal Lane County), but Multnomah will decide this election.  The final tally should give Kitzhaber a win by 5,000 to 15,000 votes.

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Election Night Will Bring Changes

Secretary of State Kate Brown predicts 72 percent of registered voters will participate in Tuesday's election, the highest turnout in a non-presidential election in 20 years. Pundits are predicting some surprises in the state races, and no one knows what to predict in the gubernatorial race, which is polling as one of the closest races in Oregon's history.

Election night will bring surprises. Incumbents will lose their seats, and parties will prevail in districts where a majority of voters are registered the other way.

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