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Entries in Jeff Barker (3)

Monday
Jun182012

Republicans Face Uphill Challenge for Control

The battleground for control of the Oregon House and Senate in 2013 is narrow, with perhaps as few as a handful of races to determine which party holds the gavel. It appears Republicans have the most challenging terrain to regain control.

House Republicans surged from a 24-36 deficit in the 2009 session to win six suburban seats, forcing a 30-30 power-sharing agreement in the 2011 and 2012 sessions. Now Republicans have to stand those six seats and pick up at least one more in a swing district to control the House

Control of the Senate more or less boils down to the open Senate seat on the Southern Oregon Coast being vacated by the retirement of Senator Joanne Verger, D-Coos Bay. Unless political wisdom is turned upside down, the seat should stay in Democratic hands with House Co-Speaker Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay, winning it.

Jeff Mapes, senior political reporter for The Oregonian, narrowed the contest for control of the House to 10 races. But mid-summer, after fundraising totals and polling results are analyzed, that number probably will dwindle to four or five.

The three GOP freshmen viewed as most vulnerable by Democrats are Reps. Patrick Sheehan of Clackamas, Katie Eyre of Hillsboro and Julie Parrish of West Linn. All have credible, hardworking Democratic opponents.

Republican hopes for pick-ups center on two coastal House seats — Roblan's, which he is vacating to run for the Senate, and Jean Cowan's, which will be open following her retirement. GOP operatives also believe Rep. Betty Komp, D-Woodburn, could be upset with a repeat opponent, Kathy LeCompte, who reportedly is working harder than she did in 2010. She will have to work pretty hard to keep up with Komp.

Two races a little less under the political radar involve Rep. Matt Wand, R-Troutdale, and Rep. Jeff Barker, D-Aloha, who have attracted significant opponents. Barker, who has hinted at retirement after the last two sessions, will face GOP newcomer Manual Castenada, whom many observers believe could be a rising GOP political star. Barker, a former Oregon State and Portland police officer, has earned bipartisan respect for his leadership on the House Judiciary Committee.

Control of the House and Senate determines who chairs committees and what legislation will be heard or buried. It also is part of the larger political jockeying with a popular governor in the middle of his third term.

Behind the races on the ballot is political hand-wrestling for dominance in respective caucuses. Here, the most intriguing news is in the House and Senate GOP caucuses. Some observers report a possible competition between more conservative elements of the House GOP caucus and House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg, and his close ally, Rep. Kevin Cameron, R-Salem. If Republicans take control of the House, it might make little political difference. However, if Democrats take control, the conservatives in the caucus may press for more vocal opposition.

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Monday
Oct102011

It Only Takes One

With the 2012 election now 13 months away, Oregon House leaders are aggressively recruiting candidates to run against incumbents or fill open seats. The stakes are high for leaders of the Oregon House. A swing of one seat for either party will ensure control of the chamber in 2013 when the legislature meets for its next full session.

House Co-Speakers Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay, and Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg, have displayed a great deal of bipartisanship as they shared control of a 30-30 House. But the real prize is outright control where one party sets the policy agenda, control committees and negotiates with the Senate and Governor.

That's what made the action last week to strip Rep. Mike Schaufler, D-Happy Valley, of his co-chairmanship of House Business and Labor, so engrossing. If Schaufler, who is accused of groping a woman at the recent Oregon AFL-CIO convention, were to resign or not seek re-election over the incident, his House seat could become an immediate target of opportunity in the battle for control, even with a 19 percent Democratic registration edge. As it is, both Democratic and Republican leaders are cautiously optimistic of gaining control in 2013.

Democrats believe redistricting approved in the 2011 session gives them a leg-up in districts that Republicans grabbed from them in the 2010 "GOP landslide" election. For example, the Clackamas County seat held by Rep. Patrick Sheehan went from a 2.8 percent Democratic registration edge to 7.2 percent and the Bend seat held by Rep. Jason Conger went from 2.5 percent to 5.6 percent.

They also are confident they can grab back the seat held by Hillsboro freshman Rep. Katie Eyre Brewer. However, the Democratic nominee must survive a high-profile primary fight. Katie Riley, who lost to Eyre Brewer in 2010 and is the wife of former Rep. Chuck Riley, wants a rematch. However, political operative Ben Unger has decided to run for the seat. His family runs Unger Farms, a prominent local business.

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Monday
Jul182011

The Post-Session Shuffle

Do you hear that sound? That pitter-patter of feet is what's known as the post-session shuffle, where legislators and staff leave their posts to run for office and work for other organizations, or replace those who left. Here's the list of confirmed and rumored switcheroos:

Reps. Mary Nolan, D-Portland (left), and Brad Witt, D-Clatskanie, are leaving the Oregon House to pursue other elected positions.Oregon House

Rep. Mary Nolan, D-Portland, is running for Portland City Council against Amanda Fritz. Sharon Meieran, a lawyer-turned-emergency room doctor, is thinking about running as a Democrat to replace Nolan.

Rep. Jeff Barker, D-Aloha, says he'll likely retire at the end of his term. No word yet on serious candidates looking to replace him.

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