Three Down – Only 26 to Go

As legislators headed home Friday to gear up for a second week in Salem, it was difficult for anyone accurately to describe the activities of the first three days because things moved much faster than normal at the Capitol — especially for opening days of a legislative session.

There was a crush of business as committees posted hearings on a large number of bills that probably will go nowhere. It prompted a lot of scurrying around, as lobbyists tried to figure what had a chance of passage and what didn't.

Three major "reforms" proposed by Governor Kitzhaber — education, health care and early learning — began moving down paths toward probable approval later this month. If you were betting, you would say the governor would win, but not without push-back by some Republicans who believe change is moving too fast for anyone to accommodate.

A so-called "budget deal" announced on the second day of the session last Thursday produced a bit of buzz, plus a couple headlines, but no one was sure about the real scope or impact of the deal. It turned out to be a "budget re-balance" plan, which means it represented an attempt by Joint Ways and Means Committee leaders to solve internal problems in the budget that had emerged in the last six months since adjournment last June.

The re-balance plan didn't address the current shortfall in state tax revenue, which has been pegged at about $305 million. Nor did the plan address any new revenue shortfall, which could be announced Wednesday when the state economist releases the latest revenue forecast at a joint meeting of the House and Senate Revenue Committees. It also prompted criticism of the Ways and Means co-chairs who took some of a recent Phillip Morris tobacco tax court-ordered payment — about $56 million — and applied most of it to the general budget deficit, not, as proposed, to funding for crime victims. Such is the stuff of Ways and Means.  Money ostensibly for one purpose is swept for another purpose.

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Accurate Expectations for Short Session

Many Oregon legislators have lived through the different pace of the "experiments" with two short legislative sessions – one in 2008 and one in 2010. A number of new legislators and — perhaps more important — Governor Kitzhaber have not had the special experience.

That raises questions about proper expectations for the short session, which comes amid a lingering recession that has resulted in declining state tax revenue projections and just before the campaign season formally launches that will determine which party controls the House and Senate. The special session is scheduled to end no later than March 5, the day before the filing deadline for the May primary and November general elections.  

There are at least five major issues on the special session platter. Four of them are there because of initiatives by the governor as he seeks to re-make state government. The issues are:

         *  The need to balance the state budget in the face of a continuing recession that is sapping general fund resources for K-12, higher education, law enforcement, prisons and social services. The prospect of spending cuts is viewed as so dire that SEIU and AARP have bought advertising to decry further reductions in home, health and long-term care.

         *  Taking the next steps in the governor's education investment strategy, which will consolidate education management and funding priorities from kindergarten through graduate school under his leadership and an appointed education czar.

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Planning for the February Legislative Session

While Oregon legislators are planning for their Christmas and New Year holiday celebrations, they also have February on their calendars.

That's when they will return to Salem for the first official "annual legislative session," which voters enabled when they changed the Oregon Constitution at the November 2010 general election.

Legislators experimented with annual sessions in 2008 and 2010 in an approach that some observers thought violated the Constitution.

Lawmakers arrive in Salem February 1 and probably will finish the session by March 5 or thereabouts — if, for other reason, than that the 2012 election filing day deadline is March 6, an event usually held in the House chamber.

At the moment, several major issues are on the February legislative agenda:

• The next steps in Governor Kitzhaber's plan for education reform, which revolves around creating an Education Investment Board to oversee all of education from kindergarten through graduate school. The governor also envisions hiring an "education czar." The proposals remain controversial, especially in light of the recent dust-up between the State Board of Higher Education (which would go away with creation of the Education Investment Board) and supporters of now-fired University of Oregon President Richard Lariviere. In addition, many observers wonder how the governor will pull off the huge organizational changes, which include diminishing the role of the elected superintendent of public instruction, at a time when state money is drying up.

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