Kitzhaber Brings Home Bacon

The big news last week revolved around Governor Kitzhaber's successful, last-minute trip to Washington, D.C. where he negotiated final terms of a deal that will bring Oregon almost $2 billion in federal money over the next four years to finance health care reform. The first installment — $620 million — is expected to arrive in Oregon by July 1.

As The Oregonian put it in its lead story on the successful trip: "Kitzhaber saves Oregon budget and his reputation in health care deal with Obama Administration." Both points are true. Oregon needs the money to fund reform. And, Kitzhaber, a former emergency room doctor who thinks, lives and breaths health care policy, had almost no choice but to succeed in D.C.

What remains is a question about whether the new federal money can be used to fill budget holes or must be devoted to new health care reforms. But that question, as important as it may be to budget analysts, ignores the basic policy point — the money will go to reform and that will mean that the reforms have a better chance for success here.

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Retired Law School Dean Reflects on Ruling

Symeon Symeonides pondered a moment, then said he had no idea how the U.S. Supreme Court would rule on the constitutionality of the Obama health care law, especially the individual mandate requiring every citizen to have health insurance. The high court will hear arguments in the case next week.

An internationally renowned constitutional law scholar, as well as one of Salem's best-kept secrets, Symeonides said it might be easier for states like Oregon to impose a health insurance buying mandate than for the federal government to do so. After all, he said, Massachusetts passed a mandate a few years ago and it appears to be working — though Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney would rather kick the issue to the background. 

Symeonides and I, along with Willamette Law School's development director, Mike Bennett, sat down for a drink last week to reflect on the Supreme Court case, which stands to be one of the most significant in years, perhaps even rivaling the abortion or desegregation decisions. It was only about a week before Symeonides headed off to Brussels, where he will be working for several months to advise the European Union on how to draft a new constitution.

If states found the political wherewithal to impose an individual mandate — and Symeonides, ever an astute observer of political winds, thinks that could be a tall order — it might be easier legally because it wouldn't run up against the U.S. Constitution's commerce clause. Under Article 1, the clause gives Congress "the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations and among the several states, as well as Indian tribes."  The outcome of the court case rests, at least in part, on how current justices interpret the commerce clause and whether regulating commerce "among the several states" allows for an individual health insurance mandate.

The New York Times published an article last week, with the headline,  "At Heart of Health Law Clash, a 1942 Case of a Farmer's Wheat."

"If the Obama Administration persuades the Supreme Court to uphold its health care overhaul law, it will be in large part thanks to a 70-year-old precedent involving an Ohio farmer named Roscoe C. Filburn."

Seems that Mr. Filburn sued to overturn a 1938 law that told him how much wheat he could grow on his property and imposed a penalty on him if he grew too much. The Court ruled against Mr. Filburn, and that ruling serves as the pivot for what the justices will begin considering next week. The Times says interpretations of the Filburn case may form the basis for decisions by the two current-day justices who are considered the swing votes in this case, Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia.

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Huge Issues Loom in 2013 Session

The short 2012 session just ended and there are nine months until the 2013 legislature convenes, but it is still timely to look ahead at the issues that need resolution or are just ripening for action.

At the top of the list is how Governor Kitzhaber's health care transformation strategy will work and whether newly forming coordinated care organizations can squeeze out cost savings in serving Oregon's Medicaid population. The health insurance exchange will get up and running, just as the federal health care reform measure lands in the U.S. Supreme Court, which could toss some or all of the controversial reform legislation.

Despite a slow economic recovery, many parts of Oregon still feel the after-effects of recession and could benefit from state efforts to boost employment. Strong differences exist between Republicans and Democrats on how to stimulate job growth, especially in rural Oregon.

As a result of education reform measures pushed by Kitzhaber, K-12 school districts are signing achievement compacts to promote improved student learning. A question remains whether this reform will under-perform or have unintended consequences as have previous reforms such as No Child Left Behind and Race to the Top.

Lawmakers in February approved a measure that deals with home foreclosures. However, consumer advocates felt it didn't go far enough, while bank and title company officials said it might not work as expected.

Kitzhaber, who will be entering the last two years of his third term, has vowed to give tax reform another shot. This has proven to be as elusive as the pot of gold under the rainbow. While a majority of Oregonians feel the state's current tax system isn't sustainable, there is no clear consensus on how to refine or replace it. A state sales tax is certain to make another stage appearance, with a few clapping and others throwing big red tomatoes. 

Local governments are pressing for expanded access to property tax revenues. They are looking for authority to exceed property tax rate limitations for voter-approved levies. The temporary state hospital tax expires and hospital interests may be less willing to go along with an extension after proceeds were diverted from their original purpose.

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Words Matter as Much as Policies

Will Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber convince the federal government to give money back to the state because of progress here on health care reform?As a person who likes and uses words, I have noticed that the health care debate — both heading toward the U.S. Supreme Court and the 2012 Oregon Legislative session — has been marked by words apparently designed to get the attention of those involved.

Consider these examples:

• Regarding the "you-have-to-buy-health-insurance mandate" that is heading to the U.S. Supreme Court, a health economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, put it this way:  "Health reform without an individual requirement is the spinach you need to get the chocolate you want."
• On the same issue, a former health care policy advisor to President Bill Clinton was quoted last week as saying that "health reform without an individual mandate is like driving a train without tracks; you can still move, but you can't get to your destination and it will be a tougher and far more costly trip."
• Or, consider this quote used last week in an update for Oregon legislators on the Health Insurance Exchange: "Our assumption is that the exchange is being born in a political battlefield. Half of Oregon never wanted you to exist and other half wanted much more than what you are. It seems your biggest challenge will be to gain the trust from both sides that you are an honest broker of information and opportunity — not the purveyor of a political agenda."

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