The Battle for the Gavel

The general election is a month away, but the plot is already thickening over who will be in control in the Oregon legislature after all the votes are counted. What's happening out of public sight is a combination of inside baseball and roller derby.

If Democrats regain control of the Oregon House, there appears little doubt Portland Rep. Tina Kotek will ascend to become House Speaker. Rep. Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay, who served as co-speaker in the 2011 and 2012 sessions, is running for an open Senate seat.

The bigger question is who takes over for Kotek as Democratic leader. Rep. Val Hoyle, D-Eugene, is the only declared candidate, but rumors have circulated that Rep. Tobias Read, D-Beaverton, is considering a bid for the post, which is complicated by his departure from Nike and search for a new job. 

Another logical option could be Rep. Peter Buckley, D-Ashland, but he may prefer to keep his job as co-chair of the Joint Ways and Means Committee for a third consecutive term. Another candidate who could emerge is Rep. Chris Garrett, D-Lake Oswego, who assumed the co-chairmanship of House Business and Labor after Rep. Mike Schaufler, D-Happy Valley, was stripped of the role after a scandal.

Earlier this year it looked as if there could be a rebellion in the House Republican caucus, with a handful of new lawmakers eager to be more aggressive in opposing Democrats, including Governor Kitzhaber. However, events — including a scandal that led Rep. Matt Wingard, R-Wilsonville, to drop his bid for re-election — seem to have cemented Roseburg Rep. Bruce Hanna's position as GOP leader or speaker if Republicans claim 31 or more House seats this fall.

Hanna, who enjoys a warm working relationship with Kitzhaber, which eased passage in 2011 of major gubernatorial initiatives, could still face a challenge from Rep. Dennis Richardson, R-Central Point, who favors a harder-line approach to policy issues. Richardson has served as the GOP co-chair of Ways and Means.

The sudden retirement of Senator Jason Atkinson, R-Central Point, and the primary victory of Tim Knopp over sitting GOP Senator Chris Telfer from Bend have sparked conversation about Senate Republican caucus leadership. Senator Ted Ferrioli, R-John Day, has mounted what could be described as loyal opposition in the Senate, but some expect Knopp, a former House majority leader, to inject more fire in caucus debates. Knopp has made no pubic gestures to unseat Ferrioli, but the caucus has edged to the right and may want a fresh voice leading it.

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A Reflection on Oregon Co-Governance

As we approach the November 2012 election, it is timely to reflect on how well co-governance has worked in the Oregon House the last two years as Democrats and Republicans each held 30 seats.

Any reasonable assessment of co-governance would indicate that it has been, in the main, a success.

Republicans and Democrats managed to find a way to work together, with co-speakers of the House, co-chairs of every legislative committee, co-vice-chairs of every committee and "co" everything else.

Truly, it has been an experience in which legislators, regardless of party label, found a way to identify the middle on a host of pressing public policy problems. At a time when there appears to be almost nothing but acrimony, recrimination and name-calling in the presidential and congressional campaigns, it has been refreshing to watch Oregon’s elected officials work together to express the very definition of politics — the art of compromise.

Here are a few examples where legislators found common ground:

       *  Deciding not to propose any increased taxes while Oregonians try to recover from a stubborn recession — that could have driven another wedge between businesses and unions.

       *  Agreeing across party lines to balance the state budget, with a larger-than-normal ending balance.

       *  Moving ahead on health care reform that, at least in theory, proposes to provide health care to more Oregonians while slowing the growth in the cost of care.

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Republicans Face Uphill Challenge for Control

The battleground for control of the Oregon House and Senate in 2013 is narrow, with perhaps as few as a handful of races to determine which party holds the gavel. It appears Republicans have the most challenging terrain to regain control.

House Republicans surged from a 24-36 deficit in the 2009 session to win six suburban seats, forcing a 30-30 power-sharing agreement in the 2011 and 2012 sessions. Now Republicans have to stand those six seats and pick up at least one more in a swing district to control the House

Control of the Senate more or less boils down to the open Senate seat on the Southern Oregon Coast being vacated by the retirement of Senator Joanne Verger, D-Coos Bay. Unless political wisdom is turned upside down, the seat should stay in Democratic hands with House Co-Speaker Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay, winning it.

Jeff Mapes, senior political reporter for The Oregonian, narrowed the contest for control of the House to 10 races. But mid-summer, after fundraising totals and polling results are analyzed, that number probably will dwindle to four or five.

The three GOP freshmen viewed as most vulnerable by Democrats are Reps. Patrick Sheehan of Clackamas, Katie Eyre of Hillsboro and Julie Parrish of West Linn. All have credible, hardworking Democratic opponents.

Republican hopes for pick-ups center on two coastal House seats — Roblan's, which he is vacating to run for the Senate, and Jean Cowan's, which will be open following her retirement. GOP operatives also believe Rep. Betty Komp, D-Woodburn, could be upset with a repeat opponent, Kathy LeCompte, who reportedly is working harder than she did in 2010. She will have to work pretty hard to keep up with Komp.

Two races a little less under the political radar involve Rep. Matt Wand, R-Troutdale, and Rep. Jeff Barker, D-Aloha, who have attracted significant opponents. Barker, who has hinted at retirement after the last two sessions, will face GOP newcomer Manual Castenada, whom many observers believe could be a rising GOP political star. Barker, a former Oregon State and Portland police officer, has earned bipartisan respect for his leadership on the House Judiciary Committee.

Control of the House and Senate determines who chairs committees and what legislation will be heard or buried. It also is part of the larger political jockeying with a popular governor in the middle of his third term.

Behind the races on the ballot is political hand-wrestling for dominance in respective caucuses. Here, the most intriguing news is in the House and Senate GOP caucuses. Some observers report a possible competition between more conservative elements of the House GOP caucus and House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg, and his close ally, Rep. Kevin Cameron, R-Salem. If Republicans take control of the House, it might make little political difference. However, if Democrats take control, the conservatives in the caucus may press for more vocal opposition.

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Jobs Bills in the Mix

In a short legislative session dominated by budget concerns and Governor Kitzhaber's ambitious reform efforts in health care, education and early learning, jobs bills have taken a back seat. But that doesn't mean they won't make it to the finish line.

There are major bills to coordinate the state's economic development activity, create more enterprise zones and reduce temporarily Oregon's capital gains tax rate. And there is legislation to clarify how and when to tax data centers such as Facebook's that were prize catches by previous economic development recruitment.

Here is a quick overview of some of the significant jobs-related legislation in Salem:

House Bill 4040: Drafted by two influential legislators — Reps. Tobias Read, D-Beaverton, and Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, along with State Treasurer Ted Wheeler, the Oregon Investment Act seeks to align state economic development programs and incentives to make them more inviting to private sector companies. The measure has passed out of the House Transportation Committee, so remains alive.

Read, Bentz and Wheeler co-authored an op-ed in The Oregonian explaining their intentions:

"Oregon spends significant Oregon Lottery profits and other funds today to enhance business development. Yet those tools are scattered across multiple agencies and have little strategic connection, and sometimes have little accountability to measure results.

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It Only Takes One

With the 2012 election now 13 months away, Oregon House leaders are aggressively recruiting candidates to run against incumbents or fill open seats. The stakes are high for leaders of the Oregon House. A swing of one seat for either party will ensure control of the chamber in 2013 when the legislature meets for its next full session.

House Co-Speakers Arnie Roblan, D-Coos Bay, and Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg, have displayed a great deal of bipartisanship as they shared control of a 30-30 House. But the real prize is outright control where one party sets the policy agenda, control committees and negotiates with the Senate and Governor.

That's what made the action last week to strip Rep. Mike Schaufler, D-Happy Valley, of his co-chairmanship of House Business and Labor, so engrossing. If Schaufler, who is accused of groping a woman at the recent Oregon AFL-CIO convention, were to resign or not seek re-election over the incident, his House seat could become an immediate target of opportunity in the battle for control, even with a 19 percent Democratic registration edge. As it is, both Democratic and Republican leaders are cautiously optimistic of gaining control in 2013.

Democrats believe redistricting approved in the 2011 session gives them a leg-up in districts that Republicans grabbed from them in the 2010 "GOP landslide" election. For example, the Clackamas County seat held by Rep. Patrick Sheehan went from a 2.8 percent Democratic registration edge to 7.2 percent and the Bend seat held by Rep. Jason Conger went from 2.5 percent to 5.6 percent.

They also are confident they can grab back the seat held by Hillsboro freshman Rep. Katie Eyre Brewer. However, the Democratic nominee must survive a high-profile primary fight. Katie Riley, who lost to Eyre Brewer in 2010 and is the wife of former Rep. Chuck Riley, wants a rematch. However, political operative Ben Unger has decided to run for the seat. His family runs Unger Farms, a prominent local business.

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Legislators Getting Nearer to Major Budget Decisions

The long-awaited "Co-Chairs' Budget" will be released today.  

The release will signal the start of the process by which the Ways and Means Committee begins to make what everyone knows will be the toughest decisions for the legislature this session – balancing the 2011-13 state budget.

So far, legislators have not faced any of those decisions, such as:

• Decisions on the Juvenile Corrections budget, which generated headlines last week about how many secure treatment beds would be cut;

• Decisions on the size of the K-12 investment, which usually occupies center stage in any budget play, and which may involve the usual debate  among the governor, other Democrats and Republicans about who can propose the most money for schools;

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