According to the polls, IP 28, which would raise taxes for large corporations with more than $25 million in annual sales in Oregon, either has strong support, withering support or a large bunch of undecided voters. Who knows at this point?
So it is with high-profile, big-stakes initiatives in mid-summer. Voters may be vaguely aware of them, but a good chunk of the electorate has postponed thinking too much about them until closer to the November election. They have vacations to take and lawns to mow.
Reading too much into summer poll results on initiatives is like depending on the Farmer’s Almanac to tell you whether it will rain next weekend. The polls regarding IP 28 hardly tell any story at all.
A poll done by DHM Research in May found 51 percent in favor, 32 percent opposed and 18 percent undecided. Action Solutions released a poll early in June showing only 41 percent support IP 28, while 32 percent oppose and 35 percent are undecided.
Differing questions and polling techniques can account for some of the variation among the polls, but the differences are pretty stark and most likely reflect that a lot of people really haven’t made up their minds yet.
The battle lines on IP 28 are pretty clear, however. Proponents argue big corporations pay too little tax in Oregon, which results in inadequate funding for schools and other public services. Opponents will contend IP 28 is really a gigantic sales tax that will raise consumer prices and cost Oregonians jobs. Both arguments have relatively broad appeal in Oregon, which also may account for some lingering voter indecision.
The iCitizen poll showed support for IP 28 drops, especially among Republican voters, when the the “sales tax” label is applied to it. But DHM Research found strong residual support, even among Republicans, with the claim that corporations pay too little in taxes in Oregon.
Pollsters agreed that views on the controversial measure are fluid. They may fluctuate in the course of the next few months as campaigns mount their best arguments in the most places. The 2016 election has already revealed itself as out of the ordinary, with populist surges on both the political left and right.
The IP 28 campaign will be worth watching. But don’t count on the polls, at least quite yet, as much of a guide for what the eventual outcome.