Legislators Get a Mostly Good News Revenue Forecast

State economists Mark McMullen and Josh Lerner shared the latest Economic and Revenue Forecast that contained mostly good news, but also a warning that Oregon’s economy is cooling off.

State economists Mark McMullen and Josh Lerner shared the latest Economic and Revenue Forecast that contained mostly good news, but also a warning that Oregon’s economy is cooling off.

The Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast released today is full of mostly good news, but also hints at less good news just around the corner. 

Better than expected revenue projection this bienniums, based on job growth and higher wages, have trimmed the state’s projected 2017-2019 budget hole to $1.4 billion, but warning signs abound that Oregon’s economy is cooling off as the nation may be inching toward a new recessionary cycle. A trade war could accelerate an economic slowdown in Oregon.

State economists say Oregon’s economy remains solid, but a "pervasive slowing of job growth” is sure to intensify calls for deeper spending cuts in the next biennium. Governor Brown and Democratic legislative leaders acknowledge there is a structural gap between Oregon’s revenues and spending levels, but there isn’t consensus on how to bring them into alignment.

Here is how state economists predict the short-term outlook for Oregon:

"While Oregon’s economic expansion continues, growth has clearly slowed. In recent years, the state has enjoyed robust, full-throttle rates of job gains in the 3-3.5 percent range, or nearly 5,000 jobs per month. No longer is this the case. Oregon is expected to continue to see healthy job gains – a bit more than 3,000 per month or just more than 2.1 percent over the course of the 2017-19 biennium, but the state is now past its peak growth rates for this expansion. Importantly, such gains remain strong enough to hold unemployment down and account for ongoing population growth.”

One piece of news that may please personal income taxpayers, but add to the distress of legislative budget-writers is the likelihood that Oregon’s unique “kicker" will be triggered. If actual revenues exceed 2 percent of what is projected in the state budget, all revenues above the projected total will be rebated to personal taxpayers. Based on current numbers, that would mean around $400 million going back into taxpayer pockets as refunds when they file their tax returns for 2017 next year.

Here is some of the other good news contained in the forecast:

  • Oregon’s average wage gains are in the 3-4 percent range, which have helped to bring wage levels in the state closer to the national average – the highest relative level they have achieved since the 1980s when many timber mills were shuttered.
  • Labor participation rates have sharply increased for workers between the ages of 35 and 50 since 2015 – and grew 10 percent for workers nearing 65 years of age.
  • Oregon household incomes are on the upswing, which can be expected as labor markets tighten.
  • Rising household incomes have, in turn, kept the state’s housing affordability crisis and poverty rates from getting worse.
  • Oregon’s unemployment rate has plunged, making the 3-month decline in the first quarter of 2017 the largest ever recorded in state history.
  • Ten economic sectors have recovered from Great Recession job losses and now are at all-time high employment levels. They include food manufacturing, education, health care, professional services, leisure and hospitality and retail. Oregon’s manufacturing sector has returned to growth in recent quarters, but job levels have not.
  • Nationally, US exports have rebounded, while consumer spending slowed in early 2017.
  • Most of the indicators used to mark up-or-down economic movement are in positive territory. One of the exceptions is  income tax withholding levels from Oregon paychecks.

Release of the May Economic and Revenue Forecast provides the baseline numbers and starts the final countdown on state budget approval before the regular legislative session ends around July 4. The forecast also signals the final political push for a spending and revenue package that can pass.

Elements of a possible deal have surfaced, but so far the deal doesn’t appear to have been closed. Brown says there has been continuing engagement with business leaders on an acceptable budget deal. She also has proposed a massive sell-off of surplus state assets to reap as much as $5 billion to buy down the unfunded liability of the Public Employees Retirement System. Agreement on filling Oregon’s Medicaid budget hole are also close to completion..

Senator Mark Hass, D-Beaverton, has unveiled his proposal to replace the current Oregon corporation income tax with a broader-based gross receipts tax. House Democratic leaders have come up with a corporate activity tax that also would replace the current corporate tax regime.

The next six weeks will be intense in Salem. Fortunately, today’s revenue forecast didn’t make the situation even tenser.

Lawmakers Unveil $8 Billion Transportation Package

Under the just unveiled Oregon transportation funding package, buying a new car may have a new line item – a 1 percent excise tax – to help pay for congestion relief and seismic retrofits of critical bridges.

Under the just unveiled Oregon transportation funding package, buying a new car may have a new line item – a 1 percent excise tax – to help pay for congestion relief and seismic retrofits of critical bridges.

Oregon lawmakers and the public got their first look this week at a $8 billion, 10-year transportation package that includes provisions to preserve existing roadways, deal with highway bottlenecks, retrofit critical bridges to withstand earthquakes and bolster public transportation and bike safety.

To raise the $8 billion, Oregon’s gas tax would gradually increase over a decade by 14 cents, a 1 percent excise tax would be assessed on new car purchases and a .001 percent statewide employee-paid payroll tax would be imposed. Revenue from the excise tax on new cars would be dedicated to congestion relief projects, while the payroll tax would pay for transit improvements. There is also language in the proposal that would allow tolling on roadway facilities in the Portland area and a new excise tax on bicycles.

Senators Lee Beyer, D-Springfield, and Brian Boquist, R-Dallas, who presented the plan, made clear there is still a lot of negotiation left to do before voting begins. However, Beyer said the plan represents the minimum of what’s required to maintain Oregon’s highways and bridges, address issues such as congested freight corridors and major earthquake damage and expand public transportation.

Under the just unveiled $8 billion transportation funding proposal, tolling would be allowed to pick up the local share of the cost of congestion relief and seismic retrofits of critical bridges such as the Abernethy Bridge in Clackamas County.

Under the just unveiled $8 billion transportation funding proposal, tolling would be allowed to pick up the local share of the cost of congestion relief and seismic retrofits of critical bridges such as the Abernethy Bridge in Clackamas County.

Lawmakers arrived in Salem in February with a broad consensus it is time for a major transportation funding package. But the devil is always in the details – and, in this legislative session, in the context of a large debate over how to plug a $1.6 billion state budget hole that may grow bigger.

The plan Beyer and Boquist outlined calls for the lion’s share of early money raised by the bill to be spent in the Portland area, where congestion is the worst and few of the bridges across the Willamette River could stand up to a major earthquake. That may not set well with rural lawmakers. And not everyone, including in the Portland area, may agree on how much should be spent on seismic retrofits for a potential problem versus on relieving congestion that is an immediate and worsening problem.

There also could be voices expressing concern that the biggest bottleneck – the I-5 Columbia River Bridge – isn’t factored into the plan.

Another point of contention will be using the payroll tax to pay for transit. Supporters of the idea note there aren’t many alternatives. Under the Oregon Constitution, the State Highway Trust Fund, which is where gas tax and title, registration and license fee revenue goes, can only be used to pay for road and bridge projects. Previous attempts to find a statewide funding mechanism for public transportation, such as a tailpipe tax, were struck down because of the constitutional restriction.

A significant procedural question mark is whether all of the new or increased taxes and fees, including the statewide payroll tax, can be included in a single bill. If not, then the package may require more than one vote with a three-fifths majority to pass.

The proposal has a lot of nuances to it. For example:

  •  After an initial six cent bump, the state gas tax would increase two cents every two years, for a total of 14 cents after 10 years.
  • The title and registration fees would be increased under a tiered program designed to charge more for owners of high mileage vehicles, such as hybrids or electric cars. Vehicles that get 40+ mpg will pay the most ($40 after 10 years), 20-40 mpg will be in the middle, and 0-20 will keep the current $20 fee.
  • The gas tax and vehicle fee increases will raise $5 billion over 10 years, with 50 percent going to state roads, 30 percent to county roads and 20 percent to city roads.
  • Funding generated by the 1 percent excise tax on new cars would be used to match on a 50-50 basis with local funding through Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) throughout the state. Smaller MPOs outside of Portland may lack the capacity to raise enough money for a 50-50 match. There also was discussion among lawmakers who developed the package of raising the excise tax on new cars to 2 percent over the 10-year period.
  • Tolling was discussed, mainly on I-5 and I-205, but as Boquist pointed out, any project-specific tolling needs to be collected at the project area.
  • A 5 percent excise tax levied on newly purchased bikes would generate an estimated $4 million annually to pay for bike safety projects.
  • Under the employee payroll tax, a minimum wage worker would pay 39 cents a week, for a total of $20 per year. Te new statewide tax is expected to generate approximately $100 million annually, with the following distribution: 10 percent to fund a competitive grant program for improved service; 4 percent dedicated to inter-city transit; 1 percent dedicated to a statewide resource center and the remaining 85 percent distributed among the transit properties by formula. If the statewide payroll tax becomes a reality, public transportation would no longer be eligible for funding under the Oregon Connect program.
  • The package also contains $7 million in Connect Oregon funding and $4 million for the State Parks Department, which oversees Oregon’s beaches that allow vehicular traffic.

The Joint Committee on Transportation Preservation and Modernization will resume on Wednesday its review of the proposal and answer questions.

Because of the size of the package and concerns about Oregon Department of Transportation management, accountability provisions  have been attached. The proposal recommends continuing the Joint Committee, giving it oversight over both the budget and policy of ODOT as well as expanding the Oregon Transportation Commission to include members from each region of the state. Uniform standards for the quality of roads and bridges also would be established as part of the package.

Address Oregon’s Budget Deficit in Digestible Chunks

Oregon has a $1.6 billion budget hole, which could grow deeper if the personal income tax kicker is triggered and Congress enacts health care and tax legislation. There isn’t a big table to reach a grand bargain, so maybe it’s time to address the budget deficit in digestible chunks.

Oregon has a $1.6 billion budget hole, which could grow deeper if the personal income tax kicker is triggered and Congress enacts health care and tax legislation. There isn’t a big table to reach a grand bargain, so maybe it’s time to address the budget deficit in digestible chunks.

With no big table to negotiate a grand bargain in the offing, it may be time to look differently at Oregon’s projected $1.6 billion budget hole. One possibility is to break up the deficit into smaller pieces and connect them to smaller-gauge solutions.

The May economic and revenue forecast has become the signal that the legislature is entering its final six-week lap before adjournment. But lawmakers can’t leave town until they balance the budget and there are few public signs of any pending agreement – or even a process to reach an agreement.

Adding irony to injury, Oregon’s booming economy may trigger the personal income tax kicker, returning millions of revenue in the next biennium to taxpayers. Congressional action on replacing Obamacare and changing federal tax law also could have a significant, if uncertain impact on Oregon’s beleaguered budget. These complicating factors aggravate an already elusive challenge to balance the state’s budget and put spending on a sustainable track.

The advantage of a grand bargain, which would include spending cuts and a major revenue-raising vehicle, is that it could be simpler to round up the votes needed to pass the big parts. But getting Republican votes for any tax measure has proven elusive in the aftermath of a divisive campaign last year over Measure 97, which would have imposed a gross receipts tax on corporations with $25 million or more in sales in Oregon.

Senate Finance Chair Mark Hass, D-Beaverton, unveiled this week an alternative version of a gross receipts tax, with a lower rate, a broader base and a smaller tax bite, which OPB labeled as the “ghost of Measure 97." However, resistance within the business community remains, which could stymy its ultimate passage.

Trying to tackle the budget deficit in chunks would require more legislation and more tax votes, which require a three-fifths majority in the House and Senate. The advantage of this chunking approach is that it may be easier to find some level of bipartisan consensus on smaller solutions than on an omnibus package.

To some degree, there is already a precedent for subject-specific budget deals in the ongoing negotiations over a larger health care provider tax to address rising state costs for expanded Medicaid eligibility. 

An obvious candidate for a similar kind of discussion could be on how to finance a voter-approved initiative (Measure 98) that requires career education in all Oregon public high schools, estimated to cost around $350 million in the next biennium. Business, labor and education interests may find common cause and a consensus solution for a spending plan for something this specific.

The one-by-one approach also might work out for defenders of existing expenditures, such as the Residential Energy Tax Credit that requires $60 million or so to continue. A carefully constructed proposal might generate the funding to sustain the tax credit for homeowners and renters who purchase eligible energy-efficient devices or energy systems such as solar panels. Despite the RETC’s positive reputation, it could get left on the cutting room floor in negotiations on an overall spending and tax package.

At the moment, the default political approach for the Democratically controlled legislature is to hold bills important to GOP lawmakers hostage and use them as leverage to get the votes needed for a budget-balancing agreement. An unwitting victim of that approach could be a transportation funding package, which has bipartisan support in concept, but still needs work on the details.

Grand bargains usually require a powerful political figure to get key players around the table, drive the conversation and push for resolution. So far, no one has volunteered for that role. However, Governor Brown’s recruitment of former Rep. Peter Buckley, who served as co-chair of the Ways and Means Committee and has a detailed understanding of how state budgets work, could be an effective manager of a series of smaller table negotiations that whittle away at the $1.6 billion deficit.

There is no obvious or easy path to address the immediate budget hole or some of the systemic reasons why the hole exists when Oregon’s economy is rolling along, generating an estimated $1.5 billion in new revenue in the next biennium. Tackling the problem through a series of smaller, specific solutions may not result in a solution to the unfunded liability of the Public Employees Retirement System, but a solution isn’t assured even in a grand bargain. The PERS changes that were part of the last Oregon grand bargain budget were largely thrown out in court.

If the Governor and legislative leaders are unable to push through an overall spending and tax plan to balance the 2017-2019 budget, they perhaps should look at an alternative approach while there is still time. Time flies in the Capitol, even when it seems like it would take an eternity to get all the work done before heading home for the Fourth of July.

Casino Opening Creates Another Oregon Budget Jackpot

The opening of a new casino just north of Portland is expected to produce lemons in Oregon Lottery video game sales and reduce the state's General Fund by more than $70 million a year, adding to the legislature's budget woes. 

The opening of a new casino just north of Portland is expected to produce lemons in Oregon Lottery video game sales and reduce the state's General Fund by more than $70 million a year, adding to the legislature's budget woes. 

The Ilani Casino opened its doors in La Center, Washington this week, clogging I-5 for eight miles and packing its parking lot. The new casino is expected to create serious ripples farther south in the State of Oregon’s pocketbook, complicating an already troubled budget predicament.

The Office of Economic Analysis forecasts the tribally owned casino just a short drive from Portland on the freeway could chop off as much as $120 million per year in Oregon Lottery revenues, which translates into more than $70 million per year in reduced revenues to the state General Fund.

Much of the loss is attributed to video lottery. The state economist says more than half of  Oregon’s video lottery sales occur in the Portland metropolitan area and 11 percent occur in the northern part of Portland, which is closest to the new casino. North Portland also is where a lot of video lottery jackpot winners live.

“If these northern Portland zip codes see a 40-50 percent decline in video lottery sales, that means total statewide video lottery sales would decline 4.5 to 5.5 percent,” according to the state economic forecast. “Factoring in additional losses of around 10-15 percent throughout the rest of Portland regional brings the statewide total impact to nearly 12 percent.”

For a state budget enumerated in billions of dollars, $70 or so million may not sound like much of a revenue hit. But Oregon legislators find themselves in a troubled place where they are scrounging for every dollar they can find to avoid budget cuts. To put a $70 million revenue loss into perspective, that would pay for Governor Brown’s affordable housing construction program or cover the cost to extend health care coverage to every child in Oregon.

Salem is just days away from receiving the May economic and revenue forecast, which is the final financial benchmark used to determine state agency budgets. It’s possible state economists may raise the potential impact of the Ilani Casino based on its bustling opening, where eager patrons chanted for the doors to open.

The May forecast will signal the beginning of the bell lap in the session when lawmakers need to get serious about a budget deal. Democratic leaders have released a budget showing what cuts could look like if there is no new revenue. A bipartisan committee issued ideas for how to curb spending. Senator Mark Haas, D-Beaverton, has developed a corporate gross receipts tax that would replace the current state corporate income tax. However, there doesn’t appear to be a concerted effort – or a clear ringleader – to hammer out a budget deal that can pass.

The new casino features a 100,000 square foot gaming floor with 2,500 slot machines and 75 table games, according to a report in The Oregonian. There are 15 dining and drinking venues, three retail outlets and a 3,000-slot parking lot.

The opening-day traffic jam was caused in part because of incomplete construction on a $32 million interchange on I-5 that was financed by the Cowlitz Tribe.

Oregon Rebuffs Washington Invite to Revisit the I-5 Bridge

 Car and truck traffic crossing the Columbia River between Portland and Vancouver continues to increase and will soon exceed 300,000 vehicles per day, based on data from ODOT.

 Car and truck traffic crossing the Columbia River between Portland and Vancouver continues to increase and will soon exceed 300,000 vehicles per day, based on data from ODOT.

Oregon Senate President Peter Courtney gave a trademark rebuke this week to State of Washington legislation that seeks to resume bi-state planning for a replacement of the I-5 Columbia River Bridge.

Courtney said he was so upset when Washington abruptly pulled out of bi-state cooperation on what was called the Columbia River Crossing that he angrily swung his arm, toppling the Pope Francis bobblehead sitting on his desk. “He got wounded. We bandaged the poor pope,” Courtney said, adding the hurt – presumably his, not the bobblehead’s – hasn’t gone away.

In less colorful ways, Governor Brown and House Speaker Tina Kotek were equally adamant as Courtney in deflecting Washington’s effort to rekindle interest in a new bridge to address one of the most serious bottlenecks on I-5 in the Pacific Northwest. All three officials said the transportation package being crafted in the Oregon legislature won’t include any provision relating to bridge replacement.

While the sentiment among Oregon officials is understandable, the consequences may mean that any progress on a new bridge, which Washington Governor Jay Inslee now says is a “high priority," could be pushed off for another decade. Oregon manages to come up with a significant transportation plan about every 10 years.

Then there is the Trump $1 trillion infrastructure plan. As outlined by President Trump, the plan would favor projects that private developers could build and toll to recoup their investment. Trump also says he wants to prioritize projects that are ready to go. There is a fairly advanced plan to replace the Columbia River I-5 bridge with vehicular and transit bridges, which presumably could be quickly resuscitated, tweaked as needed and put in play for funding from the Trump plan.

Traffic on the two bridges connecting Portland and Vancouver has continued to climb after a brief decline during the last recession. Now around 300,000 vehicles use the two bridges daily, lengthening peak-hour commuting times. Commuter “peak hours” have extended to three or more hours, traffic engineers report. Bridge lifts on the I-5 bridge routinely thwart motorists who cross the river for doctor appointments, job interviews and child care pickups.

Oregon lawmakers face a daunting challenge to find a politically acceptable solution to a $1.6 billion budget hole and what Republicans call unsustainable spending, which already has added to complicated political calculus of building a transportation funding package for roads, bridges and transit. But they also might be guilty of missing the forest for the trees.

The $1.5 billion redevelopment along Vancouver’s waterfront near the existing I-5 Columbia River bridge is certain to spur more interstate traffic and change attitudes about extending light rail from Portland.

The $1.5 billion redevelopment along Vancouver’s waterfront near the existing I-5 Columbia River bridge is certain to spur more interstate traffic and change attitudes about extending light rail from Portland.

Vancouver’s major waterfront redevelopment is well underway, which is likely to change attitudes about light rail. Reluctance among Clark County officials to hook onto Portland’s MAX system was a major factor in deep-sizing the Columbia River Crossing plan. One of the most vocal opponents, Senator Don Benton, has left town to work in the Trump administration, heading up the Selective Service.

It doesn’t take enormous imagination to see stars suddenly align on a plan that Washington and Oregon officials – and commuters and freight haulers in both states – could embrace in time to pitch for a piece of the Trump infrastructure pie. The timing may not be convenient and hard feelings may not have receded, but the stakes seem too high to ignore.

A capstone project like a new I-5 Columbia River bridge might ignite even greater interest in an Oregon transportation funding package and inject fresh energy into expansion of the metropolitan light rail system, which today awkwardly ends in the Portland Expo Center parking lot on the Oregon side of the Columbia River.

Courtney, using Trumpesque language, says the transportation bill under development in Salem is “extraordinary” and will be “one of the greatest transportation plans Oregon has ever seen. “We’ll take care of our own backyard,” Courtney explains, “and then we’ll decide whether or not there’s a state north of us.” Frustrated motorists and truck drivers who sit sometimes for hours waiting to cross the I-5 bridge can attest there definitely is a state “north of us."

Legislative Video Argues Bipartisanship is Alive and Well in Salem

Reps. Bill Post, R-Salem, and Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis, may be on the opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they have posted a video that argues partisanship has its place, but bipartisanship is the rule.

Reps. Bill Post, R-Salem, and Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis, may be on the opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they have posted a video that argues partisanship has its place, but bipartisanship is the rule.

If Congress can be depicted as a hell-hole, the Oregon legislature might fairly be described as a friendly campground. And two of the campers have posted their homegrown video.

Reps. Bill Post, R-Salem, and Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis, sit on opposite sides of the political aisle, but in their video they sit side by side in comfy chairs. Their YouTube video starts off by discussing how to pronounce Philomath, a timber town in Rayfield’s district.

Post and Rayfield don’t share much in terms of political ideology, but on video they look like best of friends. And they might be.

The shrill partisanship that seems to consume Washington, DC  is largely absent in Salem. There are strong disagreements, political ploys and occasional obstruction, but mostly there is respectful comity. Friendships transcend politics. That’s the point Post and Rayfield make in their video. The general public thinks Republicans and Democrats are waging wars in the hallways, when instead they trade jokes on the stairs and look for common ground in committee rooms.

For people familiar with the Oregon political scene, this is not new. But it is news that the tradition has by and large continued.

When former Rep. Vic Gilliam, R-Silverton, revealed his diagnosis of ALS, the legislative colleague who took the new the hardest was Rep. Brian Clem, D-Salem. Representing neighboring House districts, Gilliam and Clem became good friends, with friendships that extended beyond the Capitol grounds. Clem has pledged to pitch in to help Gilliam as his physical condition ineluctability deteriorates.

The Post-Rayfield bromance video is intended to give a “behind-the-scenes” look at the 2017 legislative session.  For example, they trade thoughts on how to deal with legislation suggested by constituents, even if it seems creepy. Post wondered what to do if the bill represented an opposing political philosophy. Rayfield said he tries to provide counsel to constituents on how to lobby their own bill or find an alternative solution.

If you watch the entire video, you come away with some additional knowledge about camellias and marijuana, but mostly with a sense that bipartisanship continues to thrive in the Oregon legislature.

In terms of snappy entertainment, the Post-Rayfield video lacks the punch of tweets by President Trump or press briefings by Sean Spicer. But it is a reassuring affirmation that the world has not gone totally mad, which makes the video very entertaining, even without Snapchat filters.

Future videocasts promise more Capitol history, including a dissertation by Rep. Jeff Barker, D-Aloha, on the origin of Hawaiian Shirt Friday. We can hardly wait.
 

Tax Votes Add Complexity to Budget Balancing Challenge

Tax votes that require three-fifth majorities to pass complicate already complex Oregon budget negotiations, which remain opaque and may not have really begun in earnest.

Tax votes that require three-fifth majorities to pass complicate already complex Oregon budget negotiations, which remain opaque and may not have really begun in earnest.

Negotiating a budget deal has the complexity of a Rubix cube. Factoring in one or more three-fifth majority tax votes makes the exercise more like Super Rubix.
 
In addition to finding a tough-love agreement on a budget, Oregon legislative leaders must line up even tougher votes for tax increases that would require at least one Republican and the entire Democratic caucuses in both the House and Senate.
 
It seems likely there will be at least two tax votes in connection with a budget agreement – a hospital provider tax bill and some kind of corporate tax legislation. There also could be a tobacco tax increase.
 
There is bipartisan agreement on the need for a transportation funding package, which would require another vote with at least 36 “yes" votes in the House and 18 in the Senate. Despite two months of public hearings and several months of road show meetings, there isn’t any apparent agreement on what should be in the package or how to pay for it.
 
A question legislative leaders have to ask is how many tax votes their members can stomach in a single session. The answer is usually tied to how relatively painless the tax votes can be made. Removing pain involves painkillers, known in legislative vernacular as political trade-offs.
 
Legislative Republicans have circled the wagons demanding significant spending cuts, including to the Public Employees Retirement System. They believe substantial reductions are needed to make the state budget going forward sustainable, especially when the next economic downturn occurs.

There aren’t any silver bullet solutions for PERS because of court rulings and contractual obligations, which means any spending cuts would be spread over a larger array of state agencies and programs. That means a higher probability of resistance from more corners of the legislative body, including in the Democratic caucus.
 
Some political observers worry that early-session pushes by Democrats on issues such as paid family leave and rent control could dampen Republican willingness to collaborate, or at least delay meaningful negotiations. At the same time, Democratic legislative leaders have allowed some GOP priority bills to move forward with the hope that Republican legislators keep an open mind on future legislation
 
A bigger obstacle is reticence by Oregon’s business community to engage in tax discussions before specific spending cuts are squarely on the table. Senate Ways and Means Co-Chair Richard Devlin has offered a conceptual plan to address the state’s $1.6 billion projected budget deficit in 2017-2019 with $500 million in spending reductions, $500 million in tax increases and a separate deal involving the hospital tax and other health care revenue to sustain the Oregon Health Plan, the state’s Medicaid program.
 
Reports have circulated in the Capitol that some business leaders have approached GOP lawmakers about tax increases, but there isn’t much public evidence yet of significant bipartisan negotiations. In fact, the negotiations seem unusually opaque for this deep into a legislative session, especially considering all the moving parts that will go into an eventual deal.
 
Ordinarily, so-called grand bargain budget and tax talks are convened by the governor. However, Governor Brown hasn’t signaled publicly she is ready to undertake that role.
 
Congressional turmoil has added uncertainty to Oregon budget considerations, though the failure of the US House to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act removed, at least temporarily, concern about an immediate fiscal impact.

AG Sessions Threatens Grant Money to Sanctuary Cities, States

Attorney General Jeff Sessions sent a warning shot to sanctuary cities and states indicating they could risk Department of Justice grant money if they cannot prove they comply with federal immigration law.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions sent a warning shot to sanctuary cities and states indicating they could risk Department of Justice grant money if they cannot prove they comply with federal immigration law.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced today that cities and states must prove compliance with federal immigration law before becoming eligible for $4.1 billion in Department of Justice grants. The policy could put grant requests at risk in Washington and Oregon.

Sanctuary city policies “endanger lives of every American” and violate federal law, Sessions said, adding that “this disregard for law must end. Failure to deport aliens who are convicted of criminal offenses puts whole communities at risk, especially immigrant communities in the very sanctuary jurisdictions that seek to protect the perpetrators.”

The Sessions policy announcement made at the White House didn’t expressly indicate a time line, whether the risk extended beyond DOJ grants or if sanctions applied to a state would include all cities within the state.

Governors in Washington and Oregon recently issued executive orders to declare they are sanctuary states.

Both executive orders explicitly state the declarations are consistent with current federal law.  Sessions said in his statement states and cities "must prove compliance with immigration law before they can be eligible for $4.1 billion in Department of Justice grants.”

This could boil down to an interpretation of 8 USC Section 1373 of federal law that “prohibits local and state law enforcement from restricting the sharing of immigration status information with federal authorities.” The Immigrant Legal Resource Center says “Few, if any, so-called sanctuary policies actually conflict with this statute. Moreover federal law does not provide for any financial penalties for non-compliance.”

A contentious issue in Oregon involves detaining people at the request of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Based on a US federal court ruling calling the practice illegal without probable cause, Oregon law enforcement agencies decline such ICE detention requests.

In February, Washington Governor Jay Inslee signed an executive order blocking state law enforcement from detaining undocumented immigrants at the request of federal officials, days after the Trump administration began ramping up immigration enforcement actions.

Inslee’s order prevents state agencies from discriminating against or refusing service to those living in the country illegally and blocks the Washington State Patrol and the state Department of Corrections from detaining anyone solely on the basis of immigration status. It also blocks those agencies from spending state resources to create or enforce a registry of citizens on the basis of religious affiliation. 

However, Inslee said state law enforcement agencies will continue to honor federal arrest warrants. He noted his order only affected state agencies, so city and county law enforcement wouldn’t be impacted. And Inslee said the order should not be construed to mean the state would break federal law. The actual executive order reads: This Executive Order is intended to be consistent with 8 U.S.C. §1373. Should federal or state law change so as to give rise to a conflict with this Executive Order, such provision of this Executive Order shall be inoperative to the sole extent of the conflict.  

Oregon Governor Kate Brown issued an executive order in February that forbids all state agencies and employees from helping federal immigration officials locate or apprehend undocumented immigrants.

Though Oregon law already forbids state and local law enforcement agencies from using public resources to find or arrest those whose only crime is being in the country without proper documentation, Brown's order goes a step further in solidifying the state's sanctuary status by expanding the law to all agencies.

The governor's order also makes it illegal for state agencies to discriminate based on immigration status and forbids state agencies from using public resources to help create a religious registry. But each provision of Brown's order included a caveat: No state employee should break state or federal law to comply with her order.

Another sore point has been more aggressive activity recently by ICE agents to arrest undocumented people outside of courthouses where they appear for minor offenses or traffic tickets. Local officials say this practice has discouraged many Latinos from coming to courthouses, even as prospective jury members or to file legal paperwork.

Devlin Proposal May Break Budget Talk Blockade

Senator Richard Devlin proposed a plan that would cut $500 million in state spending, increase business taxes by $500 million and hike the hospital tax to pay for rising Medicaid costs.

Senator Richard Devlin proposed a plan that would cut $500 million in state spending, increase business taxes by $500 million and hike the hospital tax to pay for rising Medicaid costs.

Veteran Senate Ways and Means Co-Chair Richard Devlin may have broken the deadlock on the state’s projected $1.6 billion budget hole. He called for $500 million in new taxes matched with $500 million budget cuts, including the Public Employees Retirement System (PERS).

Devlin’s idea may not be popular with everyone – or anyone, but it offers a basis for actual negotiations on how to raise revenue and what spending to trim. Until now, the major players in the budget battle have just stared at each from opposite sides of the room.

Another $500 million in tax revenue combined with $500 million in budgets cuts doesn’t equal $1.6 billion. Much of that remaining $600 million budget shortfall is expected to come from higher hospital and provider taxes to sustain Oregon’s Medicaid program.

Around $350 million of the $1.6 billion budget hole reflects the state’s requirement in the next biennium to pay 10 percent, up from 5 percent, of the cost of Medicaid. And that’s an optimistic number. Legislation Republicans are pushing in Congress could make deeper cuts in federal support of Medicaid as early as 2020. An Oregon fiscal analysis suggests the GOP health care bill, which proposes to slash more than $800 billion in Medicaid funding over the next decade, could put Oregon in the hook for an additional $2.6 billion to sustain existing coverage and eligibility by 2023.

A thorny budget debate was predictable after an acrimonious campaign on a union-backed initiative to impose a gross receipts tax, in the form of a minimum tax, on corporations with $25 million or more in sales in Oregon. After the sound defeat of the measure, business groups basically said the price of their participation in talks to raise revenues depended on making cuts in PERS.

For Democrats, tinkering with PERS is awkward politically because of their support from public employee unions. But finding ways to cut back on PERS is legally challenging because of a series of court rulings and contract arrangements. Devlin included PERS cuts in his concept, but said at most there would be modest savings from what he described as “technical fixes.” He foresees cuts in public employee compensation, vendor payments and staff levels.

On the revenue side, a lot of ideas have been floated – from limits on mortgage interest deductions to a tax on coffee. Senate Finance and Revenue Chair Mark Hass, D-Beaverton, dismissed those ideas and said he is concentrating on a gross receipts tax patterned after one in place in Washington. Hass said it would have a broad base and a low rate. He has been working on the idea since last year.

Devlin hopes the inclusion of PERS on the cutting board will entice business groups to negotiate an acceptable tax-raising measure. At least some level of business support will be necessary to win the three-fifths majorities needed for passage in both the Oregon House and Senate.

The hospital tax discussion may have a different track. In the last two biennia, former Governor John Kitzhaber worked behind the scenes with the Oregon Health Leadership Council to negotiate funding for Medicaid as well as steps to slow increased spending on health care delivery. Those quiet consultations enabled a 4-year extension of the hospital tax to pay for Medicaid to pass in the early months of the 2015 Oregon legislative session.

Governor Brown doesn’t have the same health care chops as Kitzhaber, but the same side rail conversations are underway with hospitals and other health care providers to address the Medicaid funding dilemma, which seems likely to get worse if Congress enacts its American Health Care Act. Health care providers and insurers may be wary of cutting a deal on Medicaid when the individual health insurance market that is supported by federal subsidies also may face significant changes under the GOP-backed legislation.

Devlin expressed hope that a revenue package could be wrapped up as early as next month, even a final budget won’t pass until at the end of the legislative session this summer. That may be an optimistic hope on Devlin’s part, because of the shaky relationship between business interests and union leaders. Serious negotiations could be delayed until after the May economic and revenue forecast, which includes the numbers on which final budgets are based.

Meanwhile, almost 40,000 Oregonians landed jobs in the past 12 months, bringing down the state’s unemployment rate to 4 percent, the lowest point on record. That’s good news in the short run, but it also means the current tax revenue stream is about as good as it is going to get and could be a lot worse in the next two years.

CBO Health Plan Score Underscores Deep Medicaid Cuts

 The Congressional Budget Office released its score on the House GOP health plan pushed by House Speaker Paul Ryan to replace Obamacare and the verdict is more uninsured Americans and a federal spending reduction, especially on Medicaid coverage for low-income Americans.

 The Congressional Budget Office released its score on the House GOP health plan pushed by House Speaker Paul Ryan to replace Obamacare and the verdict is more uninsured Americans and a federal spending reduction, especially on Medicaid coverage for low-income Americans.

The just released Congressional Budget Office score on the House GOP plan to replace Obamacare provides a lot to chew on and even more for state lawmakers and GOP backers of the plan – to worry about.

The top line in the CBO score is that as many as 24 million Americans will lose health insurance coverage while the federal deficit declines $337 billion over the next decade. You have to read the fine print to find out what’s behind – and what’s ahead – a projected $1.2 trillion reduction in direct federal outlays combined with an $883 billion reduction in revenues.

"The largest savings would come reduction in outlays for Medicaid and from the elimination of the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies for non-group health insurance,” according to CBO, which estimates an $880 billion reduction in federal outlays for Medicaid. Another $673 billion in savings comes from elimination of ACA health insurance subsidies.

CBO says those reductions are offset by $361 billion in projected spending for health insurance tax credits, the loss of $210 billion from penalties paid by uninsured employees and employers, $80 billion for a new Patient and State Stability Fund grant program and a net increase of $43 billion under Medicare that would go to hospitals that serve a disproportionate share of low-income patients.

As many as 14 million more Americans would be uninsured as early as 2018, CBO says, then rise to 21 million in 2020 and 24 million in 2026, largely because of federal spending cuts on Medicaid.

Changes to Medicaid funding would result in 14 million fewer Americans served by the program by 2026, a reduction of 17 percent of those covered under current law, including the Obamacare expansion. CBO projects the biggest fiscal and enrollment changes will occur in 2020 when the “enhanced federal matching rate” for new enrollees terminates. Oregon was one of the states that agreed to expand its Medicaid eligibility. The House GOP plan contemplates giving states a per capita amount for Medicaid patients. By 2026, federal outlays to states for Medicaid will be slashed by 25 percent of what states would receive under current law.

Despite all the changes, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation predict the health insurance market will remain by and large stable. The CBO and JCT report notes:

"Under current law, most subsidized enrollees purchasing health insurance coverage in the nongroup market are largely insulated from increases in premiums because their out-of-pocket payments for premiums are based on a percentage of their income; the government pays the difference. The subsidies to purchase coverage combined with the penalties paid by uninsured people stemming from the individual mandate are anticipated to cause sufficient demand for insurance by people with low health care expenditures for the market to be stable.

"Under the legislation [House GOP plan], in the agencies’ view, key factors bringing about market stability include subsidies to purchase insurance, which would maintain sufficient demand for insurance by people with low health care expenditures, and grants to states from the Patient and State Stability Fund, which would reduce the costs to insurers of people with high health care expenditures. Even though the new tax credits would be structured differently from the current subsidies and would generally be less generous for those receiving subsidies under current law, the other changes would, in the agencies’ view, lower average premiums enough to attract a sufficient number of relatively healthy people to stabilize the market. 

CBO says individual health insurance market will see sharp premium increases until 2020, then lower average premiums than anticipated under the ACA. Premiums for this health insurance market, CBO says, could be 10 percent lower by 2026 than current law projections.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price disputed CBO’s projections for larger numbers of uninsured Americans under the House GOP health plan. “We believe our plan will cover more individuals at a lower cost and give them the choices that they want for the coverage that they want for themselves and for their family.” Ryan didn’t dispute the findings, but pointed out the CBO projection for lower individual health insurance premiums by 2026.

Democrats needled Republicans over tax cuts for wealthy Americans at the expense of Medicaid patients and the retention of a Medicare spending reduction that the GOP scorned in the ACA. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer noted “The CBO score shows just how empty the President’s promises that everyone will be covered and costs will go down have been. This should be a looming stop sign for the Republicans’ repeal effort.” 

Quarterly Forecast Nuggets Buried in Plain Sight

Media coverage of Oregon’s quarterly economic and revenue outlook tends to focus on whether net state revenues have gone up or down since the last forecast. But that overlooks a lot of other interesting nuggets mined by the state economists who generate the report.

Media coverage of Oregon’s quarterly economic and revenue outlook tends to focus on whether net state revenues have gone up or down since the last forecast. But that overlooks a lot of other interesting nuggets mined by the state economists who generate the report.

Oregon’s quarterly economic and revenue outlook grabs headlines, usually related to whether net state revenue has gone up or down. But the outlook contains lots of interesting nuggets that generally go unreported, but are easily mined.

Here are some of those interesting nuggets generated by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis:

  • While Oregon has a projected 2017-2019 biennial budget hole, the state also will have approximately $1.5 billion in budgetary reserves.  The two largest chunks of reserves are locked in the Rainy Day Fund and the Education Stability Fund, which are intended to fill in budget gaps during economic downturns.
  • Despite all the talk about a wall on the Mexican border, the outlook says Mexican-born Oregon residents has declined to 5,000 since 2009, down from 55,000 in both the 2000s and 1990s.
  • The outlook lists immigration migration as a risk factor to Oregon’s economy, but notes the 388,692 foreign-born Oregon residents constitute less than 10 percent of the state’s population, compared to foreign-born residency in the United States stands at 13.2 percent.
  • Federal policy is also listed as a risk factor. Risks noted included rising interest rates, tax changes, deregulation, federal lands, trade wars and the status of the Affordable Care Act or its replacement.
  • Oregon employment has continued to grow since the start of 2010. Job growth so far in 2016 is highest along I-5 from Salem south to Medford. The percent of job growth in non=metropolitan areas now has caught up with the Portland metropolitan area.
  • Monthly statewide job growth since 2011 peaked at slightly more than 6,000 in the first part of 2016. State economists predict monthly job growth will hover at or above 4,000 into 2018, then taper off in 2019 to 2,000 jobs.
  • Oregon is in the top 10 states in terms of per capita federal Medicaid grants, which in FY 2016 total $1,895, making the state more vulnerable to proposed Obamacare changes that would reduce subsidies.
  • One chart in the outlook underscores why rural parts of Oregon that are timber-dependent have continued to suffer economically. The chart shows timber harvest rates in the 1970s compared to the current decade. On federal lands, current harvests are 88 percent lower. Timber cuts on private lands are 22 percent lower. Harvests on state and local lands are up 35 percent.
  • Estate taxes are by their very nature unpredictable. From 2001 to 2015, the largest monthly spikes topped out at $20-$23 million. However, two recent months spiked to between $40-$48 million.
  • State revenues from marijuana sales during 2016 totaled $60 million, which was slightly more than the $59 million derived from snuff and $209 million from cigarettes. The comparative totals are interesting because the effective tax rate on marijuana is substantially less than on cigarette and other tobacco products.

New Fiscal Reality Tracks Trump Infrastructure Plan

President Trump is touting a major infrastructure plan, but with little direct federal spending on projects. The plan seeks to induce private developer to build highways and bridges and recap their investment through tolls and federal tax credits. There may be few investment-worthy infrastructure projects in Oregon.

President Trump is touting a major infrastructure plan, but with little direct federal spending on projects. The plan seeks to induce private developer to build highways and bridges and recap their investment through tolls and federal tax credits. There may be few investment-worthy infrastructure projects in Oregon.

President Trump has promised a $1 trillion infrastructure investment plan, but it will involve relatively little direct federal spending on roads, bridges, transit systems, dam repairs, rail upgrades and waterworks.

The Trump plan seeks to squeeze out price investment by allowing more tolling on roads and bridges, rolling back environmental regulations and providing tax credits to developers, as reported last year by CFM’s Joel Rubin.

Billed as public-private partnerships, the funding scheme envisioned by Trump’s administration will only be viable in infrastructure investments with some form of a payback. That probably limits the eligible projects to major highways and bridges that can be tolled and large water and sewer projects that can recoup investment costs through rates charged to users.

This new fiscal reality is the motivation behind the Oregon Department of Transportation’s decision to apply for one of three spots in the federal FAST Act tolling program. ODOT indicated it would look at tolls to finance improvements to reduce congestion on I-5 near the Rose Quarter or widening the I-205 Abernethy Bridge over the Willamette River.

ODOT is still in the exploration stage, according to Director Matt Garrett, who also told lawmakers last week “Timing is everything. We’re going to push hard.” If successful, ODOT would have to start at ground zero because currently it doesn’t operate any tolling facilities in the state.

Governors convening in DC before Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress acknowledged the President's plan falls short of what many hoped for to cope with long lists of aging infrastructure. But most don’t see much of a choice.

There are few concrete details of how the Trump public-private partnerships would actually work, and what it would it take to induce developers to undertake major projects. Like old-fashioned federal-state infrastructure spending, it will come down to money. Even though the Trump plan calls for relatively small amounts of direct federal spending, the tax credits that are intended to attract developer interest come at a cost, too, which Congress, with its reluctant conservative wing, may be unwilling to fund.

The profile of projects that might ultimately garner private developer interest are likely to be larger projects in more congested areas – places with a lot of captive traffic to pay tolls and big water projects with lots of built-in ratepayers.It is harder to see how private developers would be interested in transit, dam projects and high-speed trains or light rail investments.

Ironically, the project best suited for a pubic-private partnership is replacement of the I-5 Columbia River Bridge, which for the moment isn’t on the radar screen in either Oregon and Washington, though Southwest Washington lawmakers have signaled an interest in resuming conversations. In the previous Columbia River Crossing project, which faltered in 2015, tolling was looked at, but deemed untenable because commuters could use the relatively nearby I-205 Glenn Jackson Bridge.

A rush for more highway and bridge tolling may have some unintended impacts. As more fuel-efficient and hybrid energy cars have hit the nation’s roadways, federal and state gas taxes have lost ground in terms of what they generate on a miles-driven basis. That has caused many states, including Oregon, to explore shifting in whole or part to a system based on how many miles a motorist drives, not on how much gas he or she buys.

Modern conceptions of highway and bridge tolling involve electronic assessments, not toll booths. As electronic tolling becomes more common in a metropolitan area’s transportation system, there may less resistance to moving to a tax based on miles driven to replace the gas tax. While a gas tax provides an incentive for more fuel efficient vehicles, a vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) tax in a metropolitan area encourages fewer trips and ridership on public transit.

A VMT tax has faced opposition from rural residents who per force of where they live drive longer distances to work, school, medical clinics and grocery stores. Both urban and rural motorists have expressed privacy concern about the state keeping track of their miles driven – and, by extension, where they are traveling. ODOT has worked on an electronic system that keeps track of mileage, but doesn’t track where the mileage occurs.

All this adds another layer of uncertainty to ongoing talks in Salem about a major state transportation funding package. There is bipartisan agreement on the need for a funding plan, but so far no legislative outline has emerged on what the plan might include and how it would be financed.

Funding for public transportation appears to have bipartisan support, but poses its own unique funding challenge. Under the Oregon Constitution, revenue generated from gas taxes and vehicle registration fees can only be used for highway and bridge improvements. A separate funding source would be required to pay, for example, for new buses powered by electricity or cleaner burning diesel or propane engines.

Washington Lawmakers Send Smoke Signal About Bridge Replacement

The Columbia River Crossing project went away, but not the congestion that continues to frustrate shippers and  commuters between Southwest Washington and Portland who have gained the attention of Washington lawmakers.

The Columbia River Crossing project went away, but not the congestion that continues to frustrate shippers and  commuters between Southwest Washington and Portland who have gained the attention of Washington lawmakers.

Plans to replace the aging, congested I-5 Columbia River Bridge crashed two years ago and now lawmakers from Southwest Washington are trying to send smoke signals to their Oregon legislative counterparts that there is still life in the project.

Life support might be a better description.

An ambitious project to replace the vehicle bridge and add a crossing for light rail from Portland to Vancouver faltered when the Washington legislature failed to come up with its share of funding to match federal and Oregon funding commitments. Light rail was a sticking point, but legislative attention and favor was aimed at a major project in the Seattle metropolitan area.

It didn’t help that former Southwest Washington Senator Don Benton planned the project. Benton is now working in DC as part of the Trump administration.

Qualms about light rail extending into Vancouver may still remain, but the more dominant narrative is the continued frustration of Southwest Washington commuters who endure ever longer delays because of bridge lifts and thick congestion on I-5. The Southwest Washington delegation has gotten the message.

What the delegation has managed to eke out Is legislative language coming out of the Washington Senate Transportation Committee calling the I-5 Columbia River Bridge a “project of great public importance.” That would strike commuters heading daily into Portland as classic understatement.

Senators Annette Cleveland, D-Vancouver, and Ann Rivers, R-La Center, had pushed for more. They wanted the bridge project tagged with the phrase “statewide significance,” which could help to expedite permitting for the project. Despite the downgraded wording and vague reference to mass transit and other Columbia River bridge crossing, the senators tried to put the best blush on the outcome and hoped Oregon lawmakers would take notice. They said it shows there is consensus to move forward.

Oregon officials are trying to pass a transportation funding package in the 2017 legislative session, but the starting list of projects proposed by Governor Brown didn’t include the I-5 Columbia River Bridge. Coincidentally, TriMet General Manager Neil McFarlane suggested this week several major congestion-fighting projects in the Portland area, including light rail extension to Tualatin, but his list didn’t include light rail extension to Vancouver or a new bridge.

House Speaker Tina Kotek, whose North Portland House district includes the area leading up to the bridge, was  and, according to a spokesperson, remains a strong advocate for a replacement of the existing bridge.

The Washington legislative action would authorize $350,000 to inventory and catalogue previous work on the Columbia River Crossing, which devoured millions of dollars in engineering and consulting services, and prepare a report back to the Washington legislature by December 1.

That may be enough for Oregon officials to reciprocate and agree to resume some level of bi-state exploration of a solution to what may be the worst bottleneck in the region, if not the entire Pacific Northwest. Even if discussions resume, an actual consensus project still may be years off and the necessary funding further downstream.

Early Projections for Legislative Golden Gobbler Awards

A resolution to make marionberry pie the official pie of Oregon could be an early leader in the 2017 legislative session race to win the Golden Gobbler Award. But it has competitors, with more turkey bills to come.

A resolution to make marionberry pie the official pie of Oregon could be an early leader in the 2017 legislative session race to win the Golden Gobbler Award. But it has competitors, with more turkey bills to come.

The Golden Gobbler award is something Oregon legislators sheepishly accept, even if they really weren’t trying to win it.

The award goes to the most frivolous and gratuitous bill of each legislative session. Nobody’s career is helped or hurt by winning the lighthearted award (a frozen turkey), but the legislative community gets a good laugh and free beer when it is awarded.

Oregon,  My Oregon (revised)

“Land of the Empire Builders,

“Land of the Golden West;

“Land of Majestic Mountains,

“Fairest and the best.

“Onward and upward ever,

“Forward and on, and on;

“Hail to thee, Land of Heroes,

“My Oregon.

“Land of the rose and sunshine

“Land of the summer’s breeze;

“Laden with health and vigor,

“Fresh from the Western seas.

“Blessed by the love of Freedom,

“Land of the setting sun;

“Hail to thee, Land of Promise,

“My Oregon.” 

The 2017 legislative session, still only a couple of weeks old, has some strong Golden Gobbler contenders. Second-term Rep. Sheri Malstrom, D-Beaverton, may be the frontrunner with resolutions that would declare marionberry pie as Oregon’s official pie and change some of the lyrics of the state song, “Oregon, My Oregon.”

Oregon has a state dance (square dance), state bird (Western Meadowlark) and a state mushroom (Pacific Golden Chanterelle), so it’s not unreasonable to designate a state pie, especially made from a berry that is special to Oregon. Malstrom introduced House Concurrent Resolution 19 at the request of Shari’s restaurants, which is based in her district and has won many awards for its marionberry pies. Who doesn’t like a good pie.

Tinkering with the state song may be tougher to slice. Malstrom, who is a nurse, says some lyrical updates are warranted since there has been a lot of cultural and societal evolution in the 90 years since the song was enshrined as Oregon’s own song.

Her changes, written by Amy Shapiro, include replacing the phrase in the first verse, “Conquered and held by free men” with “Land of Majestic Mountains. In the second verse, “Blest by the blood of martyrs” would be replaced with “Blessed by the love of Freedom.”  Among those who may disagree are Senate President Peter Courtney, ever the traditionalist and one who often quotes the state motto, “She flies with her own wings.”

However, Malstrom doesn’t have a clear path to claim the frozen turkey. Here are other contenders, identified by the Portland Business Journal:

  • Senate Concurrent Resolution 4 that would designate the Border collie as the state dog (Senator Bill Hansell, at request)
  • Senate Bill 76 that defines unnamed combat sports and authorizes them to be regulated by the Oregon State Athletic Commission (Governor Brown at request of the Oregon State Police)
  • House Bill 2851 that requires use of headlights on cars when windshield wipers are in use or there is fog (Rep. Paul Evans)
  • Senate Bill 688 that permits outdoor race tracks in exclusive farm use zones for radio-controlled vehicles (Senator Fred Girod and Rep. Vic Gilliam, at request)
  • Senate Bill 556 that bans driving a vehicle with a dog or dogs on the driver’s lap (Senator Bill Hansell)
  • House Bill 2875 that imposes excise tax on ground beans and ground coffee to generate tax revenue for education (House Revenue Committee)
  • House Bill 2857 that could force karaoke bars to pay royalties for performances of copyrighted musical works (House Business and Labor Committee)

There is still plenty of time in the legislative session for new turkeys to spread their feathers.

Zack Reeves is a state affairs associate who represents CFM clients in the Oregon legislature. He began working as a legislative staffer in 2011 and has developed a wide range of contacts and experience on a broad spectrum of legislation. Before politics, Zack worked as a reporter and copy editor.

Freshman Rep. ‘Sobered' by the Work, Ready for the Challenge

 Freshman Rep. Rich Vial, R-Scholls, has started to let his constituents know he is settling in now that the 2017 Oregon legislative session has convened and what issues he is working on in the early days of a session that will grow more challenging as lawmakers figure out to address a $1.8 billion budget hole. Photo Credit: Tracy Loew / Statesman Journal

 Freshman Rep. Rich Vial, R-Scholls, has started to let his constituents know he is settling in now that the 2017 Oregon legislative session has convened and what issues he is working on in the early days of a session that will grow more challenging as lawmakers figure out to address a $1.8 billion budget hole.

Photo Credit: Tracy Loew / Statesman Journal

The first few weeks of any newly convened legislative session involve a lot of learning. For freshmen lawmakers, the learning process can resemble drinking from a fire hydrant. 

Freshman Rep. Rich Vial, a Republican who represents Sherwood and the surrounding area in Washington County, told constituents in his first newsletter since the session convened that his legislative work left him “sobered.” Thousands of bills have been introduced and hundreds of voices clamor to talk about those bills with lawmakers like him everyday.

“As an attorney, my role is to advocate for either a client or a cause,” Vial told his constituents. “As a legislator, my clients are the people of House District 26. My job is to make the best decision I can to help the people I represent.”

“Making an informed decision on any topic involves collecting information from a variety of sources, including constituents, interested groups and state agencies,” Vial says. “Given the amount of information that is presented to members of the legislature each day, I find that sorting through it all in order to make a good decision is an exciting challenge. There is much to learn and much more to do, and I am humbled by the awesome responsibility of serving as your State Representative.”

His newsletter also affirms what it means to be a citizen legislator. “On Sunday night – in the middle of the Super Bowl – my family and I were called away to retrieve a newly born calf and her mother from the middle of a muddy field that had been flooded with historic amounts of rain. In honor of the [New England] Patriots'
Win, we named the new little heifer Patty.”

 Rep. Vial, an example of Oregon’s citizen legislators, attends to a newborn calf caught in the mud on his Washington County ranch during Sunday’s Super Bowl game.

 Rep. Vial, an example of Oregon’s citizen legislators, attends to a newborn calf caught in the mud on his Washington County ranch during Sunday’s Super Bowl game.

Vial’s communication to his district is typical for most legislators who use newsletters to stay in touch back home after they head to Salem.

In his February 8 newsletter, Vial features legislation he cosponsored along with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Steiner Hayward of Beaverton to raise the legal age to use tobacco products from 18 to 21 years of age. He cites statistics indicating one of every three young smokers will die of a smoking-related illness, which has an impact on the state’s Medicaid budget and worker productivity. He predicted Tobacco 21 legislation, if enacted, would cut tobacco usage 12 percent.

As the legislative session wears on and lawmakers begin to confront more challenging issues, lawmakers like Vial will keep learning and sharing what he learns and thinks with his constituents. Before long, Vial and his colleagues will be explaining to their constituents how they think Oregon should address its $1.8 billion budget hole and what the impacts would be on schools, hospitals and public safety, as well as Oregon taxpayers. Those are newsletters bound to attract a lot of readership.

Vial founded a law firm in 1986 that now employs 100 people and represents clients in six states. He has been active in Washington County on a variety of community boards. He and his wife Paula have six children and have welcomed dozens of children into their home, including seven children who lived with them permanently as refugees from Vietnam.

Oregon’s Budget Crater Remains a Political Mystery

Legislative leaders who convened the 2017 session today are calling Oregon’s $1.8 billion budget hole one of the biggest challenges in recent years, but how to meet the challenge, balance the budget, grow the economy, preserve essential services and pass a transportation funding bill remain a political puzzle.

Legislative leaders who convened the 2017 session today are calling Oregon’s $1.8 billion budget hole one of the biggest challenges in recent years, but how to meet the challenge, balance the budget, grow the economy, preserve essential services and pass a transportation funding bill remain a political puzzle.

The 2017 Oregon legislative session convened today amid a torrent of newly introduced bills and an eerie silence on how lawmakers will cope with a $1.8 billion budget hole.

Senate President Peter Courtney says he doubts whether votes exist in the Oregon Senate to raise additional revenue or pass budget with deep spending cuts. “It’s a very bad situation,” he says. House Speaker Tina Kotek called the 2017 session “one of the most challenging in quite a few years.” However, identifying problems and agreeing on solutions are very different.

Legislative Republicans have named their price for considering additional revenue – changes to the Public Employees Retirement System and “pressing down the cost curves” of state programs. When commitments are made to pursue business-friendly policies to grow the statute’s economy and cut back on state government costs, House Republican Leader Mike McLane said, "Republicans will sit down and talk about revenue reform."

Republican leaders also have signaled a reluctance to work on a transportation funding package without lowering the low-carbon fuels standard adopted in the 2015 session. “I’m hopeful that the process [to develop a transportation package] this year won’t be hijacked by the left again,” said Senate GOP Leader Ted Ferrioli.

Clouding the state’s fiscal challenge are uncertainties floating across the continent from the nation’s capital in the form of turning Medicaid into a block grant program and possibly triggering a trade war with key Oregon international trading partners.  Both could have implications on the state’s budget in the 2017-2019 biennium.

Meanwhile, the political upheaval in Washington, DC generated by the new Trump administration, especially the President's immigration executive action, has served as a convenient foil to distract attention from Oregon’s policy and financial issues.

Governor Brown has focused on maintaining access to health care through Oregon’s expanded Medicaid program, passing a transportation investment package and addressing the state’s housing crunch. Her suggestion to permit rent control is likely to stir up lively opposition.

While Brown has expressed willingness to look at ways to bring revenue and spending into better structural alignment, she hasn’t offered a process or plan to do so. The governor has urged Oregon business leaders to bring a plan to Salem. Kotek asked business leaders to sit down with others to discuss how to achieve financial alignment. That has led to pushback from business groups and the news media urging political leaders to step forward with a plan – or at least a path to a plan.

The legislature has until early July to figure out what to do on the budget. The pressure is on now to figure how to do it.

Medicaid May Turn into a Block Grant Program

Converting Medicaid from an entitlement program to block grants to states could help fulfill GOP campaign pledges to repeal Obamacare and trim federal spending, but leave bigger holes in state budgets.

Converting Medicaid from an entitlement program to block grants to states could help fulfill GOP campaign pledges to repeal Obamacare and trim federal spending, but leave bigger holes in state budgets.

The first shoe to fall on the repeal of Obamacare dropped over the weekend as surrogates of President Donald Trump said Medicaid would be converted to a block grant program. Depending on details, that could be a bombshell financial event for states such as Oregon.

The rationale for converting Medicaid to block grants is that states already run the program and block grants will give them total freedom in how to structure their programs for lower-income individuals, children, seniors and disabled people. Or as Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway put it, state block grants would ensure “those who are closest to the people in need will be administering the program.”

That glosses over some of the anticipated repercussions of the switchover. As The New York Times reports, “Since its creation in 1965 (as part of the War on Poverty). Medicaid has been an open-ended entitlement. If more people become eligible because of a recession, or if costs go up because of the use of expensive new medicines, states receive more federal money.” A bock grant puts the burden of distributing a fixed amount of money on a population that is shifting and growing.

A key feature of Obamacare was the entice states to expand eligibility of Medicaid. Thirty-two states, Including Oregon and Washington, accepted the offer. Nineteen states didn’t.  More than 20 million people gain health insurance coverage under Obamacare. Half of them were through Medicaid expansion.

Some 550,000 people in Oregon and Washington were added to the Medicaid rolls under the expansion, which the federal government subsidized 100 percent from 2014 to 2016, but prospectively will scale down after than. Declining federal funding is partially responsible for $800,000 of the projected 2017-2019 biennial Oregon budget hole. A switch to block grants could deepen the hole and force Oregon policymakers to make even uglier choices. The Ways and Means co-chairs’ no-new-revenue budget would require lopping 350,000 Oregonians off Medicaid.

While some governors like the idea of more flexibility in administering Medicaid – for example, to impose a work requirement to qualify for coverage or charge Medicaid recipients a premium, others dread the advent of block grants. In an odd sort of justice, states that didn’t expand their Medicaid eligibility and forfeited additional federal funding could be losers if the block grant amounts are set at what states receive now, including money to cover expansion. That could turn states that supported Trump into financial losers.

Some governors worry what choices states would make – willingly or at the point of a budget sword – to squeeze Medicaid coverage into a fixed federal block grant amount. Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper predicted “impossible choices” between older citizens with chronic health care problems and children with diabetes who need insulin.

Conway said state block grants were the best way to fight Medicaid fraud and abuse, but health care industry officials say it is more likely to result to destabilize even further the health care of lower-income Americans and their families.

Making Medicaid block grants the poster child for Obamacare repeal is related to congressional ability to make spending cuts in the budget reconciliation process with only 51 votes in the Senate. The GOP-controlled Congress won’t be able to replace substantive Obamacare’s substantive provisions without 60 votes in the Senate.

Congressional Republicans may view Medicaid block grants as part of a larger plan to trim spending on entitlement programs and curb federal spending.

An interesting side note, a federal judge on Monday blocked the $37 billion merger of health insurance giants Aetna and Humana on antitrust grounds. Reports indicated Aetna threatened the Obama administration to pull out of the individual health insurance market in as many as eight states unless the merger was approved. 

Study Says Obamacare Repeal to Kill Jobs

 The GOP-controlled Congress is poised to redeem its campaign pledge to repeal Obamacare, but a Commonwealth Fund study says doing so could force states to pay a huge price in lost jobs, business output and tax revenue.

 The GOP-controlled Congress is poised to redeem its campaign pledge to repeal Obamacare, but a Commonwealth Fund study says doing so could force states to pay a huge price in lost jobs, business output and tax revenue.

Repeal of financial portions of Obamacare will result in substantial job losses, increased charity care at hospitals and leave more people without health insurance, according to a nonpartisan study conducted by George Washington University for the Commonwealth Fund.

Public and private job loss in Oregon could total 45,000 as early as 2019. Forty percent of the lost jobs would be in health care, but other sectors, including construction, retail, finance and insurance, also would suffer, the study finds. Lost jobs would translate into reduced gross state product and, ultimately, in lower state and local taxes, which could top $800 million between 2019 and 2023.

The major cause of job loss, according to the researchers, would come from repeal of federal premium tax credits and federal payments to states for expanding Medicaid eligibility. Nationally, as many as 2.6 million jobs could be lost in 2019, including in states that declined to expand their Medicaid eligibility. The study projects a $1.5 trillion impact on gross state product between 2019 and 2023, with a drop in business output of $2.6 trillion and a $48 billion decline of state and local tax revenue.

These estimates don’t take into account a replacement for the portions of Obamacare that Congress repeals, which could mitigate job losses and other negative impacts.

The underlying message of the Commonwealth Fund study is to rebut the “common misconception that the health reform law has been a ‘job killer.’ This study indicates that repeal of these policies, without sound replacement policies could cause major job losses and economic dislocation in every state.”

“While health reform repeal would dramatically increase the number of uninsured and harm access to health care, particularly for low- and moderate-income Americans,” the study authors said, “this analysis demonstrates that the consequences could be broader and extend we all beyond the health care system.”

Elizabeth Hayes of the Portland Business Journal reported the study findings came as Oregon Governor Kate Brown sent a 2-page letter to House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy defending Obamacare.

“Discontinuing federal funding or shifting costs of health care reform from the federal government to states will put pressure on our ability to fund other critical services such as public safety, education and humans services,” Brown said. “And reforms that create uncertainty for patients, hospitals and insurance carriers will destabilize our insurance market and undermine our current our recent gains.”

Brown added, “We need to correct the shortcomings of [Obamacare], not dismantle it.”

Dropping patients from Medicaid is likely to force more people to seek uncompensated care through emergency rooms, which would increase hospital charity care. Hayes notes Oregon uncompensated care at hospitals dropped from $845 million in 2013 to $315 million in 2015. Higher levels of charity care put pressure on hospitals and health insurers to shift costs to private-sector payors.

More About Six Oregon Congressional Districts

Four of Oregon’s five congressional districts are held by Democrats. If Oregon gains a sixth congressional district after the 2020 Census, it might be difficult to create a truly swing district that a Republican, Democrat or political independent could win.

Four of Oregon’s five congressional districts are held by Democrats. If Oregon gains a sixth congressional district after the 2020 Census, it might be difficult to create a truly swing district that a Republican, Democrat or political independent could win.

Before the holiday break, we asked how Oregon could be divided to accommodate a likely sixth congressional district following the 2020 Census. We noted two widely different options.

The first option, floated by attorney Marvin Fjordbeck, is to make Oregon’s congressional districts more competitive. Currently, Oregon’s 1st (Washington County and Northwest Oregon), 3rd (Portland) and 4th districts (Eugene and Southwest Oregon) are solidly Democratic. The 2nd District, which covers most of Eastern Oregon, is solidly Republican.

The 5th District, which stretches from Clackamas County to the Oregon Coast, is the closest thing to a swing district now, but has recently elected Democrats, including current Congressman Kurt Schrader.

The second option, put forward in a December 26 editorial by the Register-Guard, suggests centering the new 6th District in Clackamas County and including enough rural areas to create a district that might be competitive for a Republican candidate to win.

The challenge with both ideas is that the population growth that will give Oregon a sixth congressional district is occurring in the state’s urban areas, which are typically more Democratic in their politics. Another problematic factor is the growing number of Oregonians who are unaffiliated with a political party or registered with a minor party. In fact, there could be some pressure to create a new district that someone registered as an independent could win.

To make all six Oregon congressional districts competitive would require splintering the Portland metropolitan area into at least four and possibly five districts. That could result in some funny-shaped districts that don’t conform to the rule of “coherent communities” within a single district. It also could raise complaints from Portlanders that their influence is being diluted and from non-Portlanders that Portland influence will grow even larger as population growth continues in the city and its suburbs.

Current congressional districts reflect an earlier consensus to center one of the five districts in Portland and two others in Washington and Clackamas counties, respectively. The other two districts represent the vast remaining stretches of Eastern and Southern Oregon.

Creating a swing 6th District could involve combining Clackamas and Yamhill counties into a single district or Clackamas County with rural parts of counties running along the east side of the Willamette Valley as far down as Lane or Josephine counties.

Another possibility would be to remove Bend and fast-growing Deschutes County from the 2nd District and combine it with Salem and Marion County. That could have the unfortunate byproduct of making the already sprawling 2nd District even larger.

An intriguing option that could mirror the Eastern Oregon “community" is a coastal district stretching from Astoria to Brookings. To make that work would require adding at least one inland urban center, which might be Corvallis since Oregon State University plays a role in coastal economies.

Redistricting, of course, doesn’t occur in a political vacuum. The task in Oregon falls to the Oregon legislature. If it fails to pass a plan, the responsibility moves to the secretary of state.

If redistricting occurred in the 2017 legislative session, Democrats would control both the Oregon House and Senate by solid margins. Newly elected Secretary of State Dennis Richardson is a Republican. But redistricting won’t occur until the 2021 Oregon legislative session, following the 2020 Census and the 2020 election. There is no guarantee Democrats will still hold their grip on the legislature through the next two election cycles or that Richardson will be re-elected in the 2020 election.

Redistricting involves lots of numbers and maps. It also involves personalities. Political partisans will be aware of who is itching to run for Congress and might be drawn in – or out – of a district accordingly. Those aspirants who often get the most consideration are ones who vie hard to have a seat at the redistricting table.

Gary Conkling is president and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. But most importantly, he’s a die-hard Ducks fan. You can reach Gary at garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @GaryConkling.

Oregon Congressional Delegation Could Grow

One political expert says it’s a near certainty Oregon will add another congressional district after the 2020 Census and redistricting that will affect the 2022 election. Imagine along with us where a sixth congressional district would be on the map.

One political expert says it’s a near certainty Oregon will add another congressional district after the 2020 Census and redistricting that will affect the 2022 election. Imagine along with us where a sixth congressional district would be on the map.

If Oregon’s population keeps on growing, the state’s congressional delegation should grow from five to six.

Kari Chisholm of Blue Oregon makes a convincing case that a sixth Oregon congressional seat is a near certainty after the 2020 Census, which is the basis for reapportioning congressional seats among states.

Assuming current population growth trends continue over the next four years, Chisholm says Oregon’s “6th Congressional District” would rank #417, well inside the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. If reapportionment was done today, Chisholm says Oregon ranks #433.

Oregon came close to qualifying for a sixth congressional district in the last Census in 2010. However, the recession hit Oregon hard and its population growth tailed off. Oregon’s 6th congressional district ranked #442, Chisholm said.

A sponsor of lots of political punditry, Chisholm suggests it isn’t too early to imagine how a sixth congressional district in Oregon would be configured – and who it might benefit. We’ll take the bait and ask Oregon Insider readers to offer up their maps, even if they are scrawled on napkins.

There are a few rules:

  • Districts should be compact.
  • Districts should stick as closely as possible to city and county lines.
  • Districts should be drawn to recognize community interests.
  • Districts shouldn’t be drawn to isolate any particular group of people to a single district or split them up into several districts.

Send us your redistricting map and names of who you would like to see go to Congress to represent Oregon, expanding on the state’s current congressional representatives. We’ll post what you send after the first of the year.