The Shape of Government to Come

Gov2020 attempts to predict the future of government, which turns out to look much like today but with even more technological innovation.

Gov2020 attempts to predict the future of government, which turns out to look much like today but with even more technological innovation.

Predicting the future is tricky business, but Deloitte and Touche LLP gave it a whirl in painting a picture of government in 2020. It turns out to be not that much different than government today.

Governments will still be puzzling over how to finance a growing backlog of infrastructure investments, health care will become even more ubiquitous with technological innovations and we still will be debating over personal privacy, increased convenience and the need to snoop to protect us from terrorists.

Through in-depth research and interviews with experts on each topic, Deloitte provides analysis on 39 drivers that will impact government operations and 194 trends that represent the shifts that may result by 2020. The results are posted on its new website, Gov2020.

Gov2020 is designed to be a one-stop shop for leaders in the private and public sectors to analyze how changing demographic, societal, economic and technological trends may impact the future. William Eggers, the leader of Deloitte’s public sector research department, compares the website to a “Wikipedia on the future of government.” However, Eggers also hopes the creation will spur an interactive discussion among its users about what is possible in the future.

For instance, it’s no surprise that investing in infrastructure will remain critical to economic competitiveness in 2020. As with today’s ongoing debate, the challenge for governments will be finding a way to pay for these investments. More electric and fuel-efficient cars on the road will continue to have a significant impact on the gas tax.

Gov2020 predicts this will lead to revamped infrastructure pricing models to account for efficiency and meet consumer demand. Governments will need to contemplate mileage-based user fees, which generate revenue based on how much one drives rather than on gasoline purchased. This also is likely to lead to increased efficiency. For example, when travelling on a toll road, we may notice a more dynamic system where rates depend on the time of day or amount of traffic.

When predicting health care service and delivery in 2020, Deloitte simply says “healthcare will be everywhere.” Physicians will increase the use of telemedicine, enabling those living in rural areas to have access to care. We may encounter more remote-monitoring practices through creations like an ingestible “smart pill.” Using smart phones to transmit health conditions to providers will mean more precise information and better treatments for patients.

Gov2020 forecasts that society will be debating the clash between individual privacy, convenience and the information exchange. With advancements in technology such as increased presence of drone police, online government transactions and self-driving cars, we will be forced to contemplate individual independence. What do our smart phones report back and to whom? Governments will be required to walk a fine line between navigating this new world of emerging technologies while maintaining ethical practices.

Based on just this brief sample, the common theme is technology and innovation. Governments, private companies and individuals alike must be prepared to participate and be competitive in this emerging reality. The question is, are you ready?