Political Nanotargeting

Many people think of politics as a lot of hot air. It turns out politics may be more like rocket science.

Since the 2004 George W. Bush presidential campaign, Republican and Democratic political strategists have been using nanotargeting to reach and activate their political bases. To target ads, operatives pore over voting histories, housing values, recreational preferences, automobile ownership, TV viewership as well as favorite restaurants, drinks and websites.

Who knew that your zest for Arby's or the number of bedrooms in your home could drop hints about your political leanings?

In a recent piece in The New York Times, Thomas Edsall, a professor of journalism at Columbia University, probes this intensifying segmentation — and polarization — of the American electorate. Here are some tips Edsall offers in spotting stereotypical Republicans and Democrats:

  • Someone who reads The Washington Post or watches the Comedy Channel is more likely to be a Democrat. People who reads The Wall Street Journal or watches Country Music Television or the Golf Channel are probably Republicans.

  • Among the top 10 favorite TV shows of Republicans are "The Office," "The Big Bang Theory," "Desperate Housewives" and "The Biggest Loser."  Democrats prefer "Late Show with David Letterman," "PBS NewsHour," "House of Payne" and "60 Minutes."

  • McDonald's, Burger King and Wendy's appeal to the political middle. You can spot the Republicans eating at Macaroni Grill, Outback Steakhouse, Arby's and Chick-fil-A, while the Democrats chow down at Popeye's, Dunkin' Donuts and Chuck E. Cheese.

  • The Democratic drinks of choice are cognac or Budweiser. Republicans favor light beers, Guinness and scotch.

  • Don't look for GOP presidential ads on "30 Rock" or Democratic ads on professional football games this fall.

Clearly these are generalized views of American political sympathies. But they are the basis for making critical, make-or-break advertising choices. As Edsall notes, "Incremental shifts among key constituencies — Hispanics, single white working class women and private-sector unionized employees — can be decisive."

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Two Nerds, One Big Idea

Compromise and election-year messaging are often lightning bolts streaking in opposite directions. Congressional Republicans, intent on uprooting President Obama from the White House, have felt the tension. And so has Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, who teamed with House Budget Chair Paul Ryan on an improbable proposal to reform Medicare.

Congressional Republicans buckled to election pressures as they agreed to a compromise last week to extend a payroll tax cut, continue jobless benefits and block a Medicare fee cut to doctors.

But Wyden has no reason to buckle. A Democrat, he was re-elected comfortably in 2010 and remains one of Oregon's most popular political figures, in part because he is willing to work across the political aisle. Seeking bipartisan solutions on controversial issues is viewed today as the act of a political maverick in much the same way as Senators Wayne Morse and Mark Hatfield opposing the Vietnam War.

The Potomac Watch column in the Wall Street Journal ran a piece describing what it called the Democratic establishment's "War on Wyden” for his Medicare collaboration with Ryan. It noted New York Times columnist Paul Krugman called Wyden a "useful idiot" to Mitt Romney's presidential election bid. House Democrats, according to WSJ, "hissed the plan would end Medicare as we know it." And a former Senate staffer complained Wyden undercut a key argument for Democrats regaining control of Congress.

Even Ryan's Democratic opponent jumped on the pig-pile. The WSJ quoted Ron Zerban as saying Wyden's co-sponsorship of a Medicare plan with Ryan gave the controversial Republican political cover. Zerban added, "Wyden is no longer a Democrat."

Not following party orthodoxy is nothing new for Wyden. Branded a young liberal when he brashly defeated sitting Congressman Bob Duncan in 1980, Wyden immediately set about building a reputation centered on job creation (a new lock at Bonneville Dam) and health care reform. The former head of Oregon's Gray Panthers knew a lot then about the strengths and weaknesses of Medicare, gathered by talking personally with hundreds of men and women covered by Medicare.

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Red Carpet in the Corn Belt

The diplomatic red carpet rarely extends as far as Muscatine, Iowa, an industrious town of 23,000 on the banks of the Mississippi. But it did this week for Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who paid a return visit to the town where in 1985 as a provincial official he led a trade mission to learn more about American farming practices.

Xi appears to be the heir apparent as leader of China, which is why he was given star treatment in Washington, D.C. with visits with President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.

But in Muscatine, the visit was described by the mayor as a reunion of old friends.

Xi stayed two nights in the small Iowa town a quarter century ago, sleeping on the floor of a local boy's bedroom festooned with Star Trek figurines. Eleanor Dvorchak, Xi's host and breakfast companion in 1985, now lives in Florida. She flew back to Muscatine for Xi's return trip, bringing with her a copy of "Obama on the Couch" with an inscription she had written in Chinese.

Other Muscatine residents recalled the 1985 visit exuded an exotic quality because China was just emerging from its international shell. Then, as now, most Muscatine residents were white. Just a handful of Asian Americans live there. The visit this week had a different complexion as U.S.-Chinese relations have grown and at times clashed.

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Half-time with Chrysler

A 120-second ad aired at half-time of Sunday's Super Bowl featuring Clint Eastwood talking about Detroit's comeback sparked a sharp debate among political partisans. Was it a covert pro-Obama re-election ad? Was it part of the payback for massive bailouts that kept Chrysler afloat? It depends on who you talk to, and plenty of people were talking.

Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne said the ad had zero political content.

Eastwood, who described himself as leaning more toward libertarian fiscal views and has been quoted by the Los Angeles Times as opposed to the auto bailout, said the ad was about job creation. 

GOP high priest Karl Rove told Fox News the ad offended him and smacked of Chicago-style politics. 

Obama campaign staffers in Michigan called it "another great Chrysler ad," while the President's political advisor David Axelrod extolled it as a "powerful spot."

And then there are all the tweets and Facebook mentions arguing one side or the other. Thousands of them, which continued on into this week.

Most of the commentary seemed to bypass the policy choice behind all the brouhaha. Commentators and tweeters apparently left that for actual politicians to duke out. Obama touts the bailouts, which actually started under President George W. Bush, as the savior of the U.S. auto industry. Or as one wag summed up Obama's re-election pitch, "Osama bin laden is dead, but GM is alive." Republican presidential hopefuls pan the bailout, calling it an unfortunate intrusion by government into the free market.

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Starbucks CEO Urges Contribution Boycott

From his Seattle office, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has seen enough and is leading what amounts to a boycott of political contributions until Congress and President Obama work out a plan that restores faith in the American economy.

"Right now, our economy is frozen in a cycle of fear and uncertainty," Schultz wrote this week to other corporate leaders. "Companies are afraid to hire. Consumers are afraid to spend. Banks are afraid to lend."

"Our national elected officials from both parties have failed to lead," he says. "They have chosen to put partisan and ideological purity over the wellbeing of the people. They have undermined the full faith and credit of the United States. They have stirred up fears about our economic prospects without doing anything to truly address those fears."

Schultz said the way to get the attention of politicians is to cut off campaign contributions. "We invite leaders of businesses — indeed all concerned Americans — to join us in this pledge."

The initial communication was an email to 3,000 publicly traded companies. Apparently officials at U.S. stock exchanges forwarded the letter to a broader audience, where his appeal appeared to gain traction. While Starbucks isn't a major political contributor, Schultz' call to action could catch on and hit political figures where it hurts — their campaign war chests.

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